We consider evaluation methods for payoffs with an inherent financial risk as encountered for instance for portfolios held by pension funds and insurance companies. Pricing such payoffs in a way consistent to market prices typically involves combining actuarial techniques with methods from mathematical finance. We prop…
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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
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48 results for “market consistency”
Paper establishes MLE consistency for market microstructure models.
problem Estimating parameters in partially observed diffusion models.
method Tractable sufficient condition for MLE consistency based on stationary distribution.
result Maximum likelihood estimators are consistent for market microstructure parameters.
A consistency criterion for price impact functions in limit order markets is proposed that prohibits chain arbitrage exploitation. Both the bid-ask spread and the feedback of sequential market orders of the same kind onto both sides of the order book are essential to ensure consistency at the smallest time scale. All t…
Consistent pricing of bivariate interest rate exotics via constrained Schrödinger optimal transportq-fin.MF
Develops a framework for consistent pricing of interest rate derivatives.
problem Consistent pricing of bivariate interest rate exotics across interconnected markets.
method Schrödinger optimal transport problem with constraints.
result Demonstrates practical applicability and no-arbitrage bounds computation.
The general problem of asset pricing when the discount rate differs from the rate at which an asset's cash flows accrue is considered. A pricing kernel framework is used to model an economy that is segmented into distinct markets, each identified by a yield curve having its own market, credit and liquidity risk charact…
We prove the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing for a discrete time financial market where trading is subject to proportional transaction cost and the asset price dynamic is modeled by a family of probability measures, possibly non-dominated. Using a backward-forward scheme, we show that when the market consists of a…
Study on cryptocurrency market dynamics and correlations over time.
problem Understanding the dynamics and correlations of cryptocurrency market over time.
method Evolutionary correlation analysis, turning point algorithm, inverse relationship between market size and collective dynamics, time-varying consistency of relationships, examination of volatility structure.
result Increased uniformity in volatility during market crashes, termed 'volatility dispersion'.
The paper simplifies complex jump-diffusion markets to complete models.
problem Pricing and hedging derivatives in incomplete jump-diffusion markets.
method Filtration reduction to a complete market, then consistency to original market.
result A unique equivalent martingale measure is obtained for pricing.
Study financial contracts pricing in markets with nonproportional costs and constraints.
problem Financial contract pricing in markets with nonproportional transaction costs and portfolio constraints.
method Direct and dual characterization of market-consistent prices with acceptable risk thresholds.
result Extension of the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing to include good deals and scalable good deals.
In this paper we present results on scalar risk measures in markets with transaction costs. Such risk measures are defined as the minimal capital requirements in the cash asset. First, some results are provided on the dual representation of such risk measures, with particular emphasis given on the space of dual variabl…
This note fills the gap in market-consistent valuation of lifelong health insurance products.
problem Market-consistent valuation of lifelong health insurance products is not well-addressed.
method Constructs a valuation portfolio to separate Best Estimate into policy data and financial instrument prices.
result The Best Estimate valuation is not uniquely determined by prevailing term structures and requires a stochastic model.
Deep Reinforcement Learning for Market Making Under a Hawkes Process-Based Limit Order Book Modelq-fin.GN
Deep RL controller outperforms market making benchmarks in a Hawkes process model.
problem Optimal market making in financial markets.
method Deep reinforcement learning on a Hawkes process-based simulator.
result Deep RL controller outperforms benchmarks in various risk-reward metrics.
Unique optimal strategy identified for state-dependent risk aversion.
problem Consistency of optimal portfolio choice for varying risk aversion.
method Analysis of state-dependent exponential utilities in arbitrage-free markets.
result Uniqueness of optimal strategy across any time horizon.
Actuarial-consistency and two-step actuarial valuations: a new paradigm to insurance valuationq-fin.PR
Paper introduces new actuarial-consistent valuations for insurance liabilities.
problem Valuation of insurance liabilities considering both financial and actuarial risks.
method Proposes two-step actuarial valuations and actuarial-consistent procedures.
result Actuarial-consistent valuations are equivalent to two-step actuarial valuations under coherence.
The paper explores risk measures and arbitrage in financial markets.
problem Quantifying and managing risk in financial markets.
method Introduces new risk measure axioms and characterizes arbitrage conditions.
result Derives the consistent price interval for financial contracts.
We investigate financial markets under model risk caused by uncertain volatilities. For this purpose we consider a financial market that features volatility uncertainty. To have a mathematical consistent framework we use the notion of G-expectation and its corresponding G-Brownian motion recently introduced by Peng (20…
Can Large Language Models Trade? Testing Financial Theories with LLM Agents in Market Simulationsq-fin.CP
LLMs simulate financial markets, revealing consistent trading strategies and market dynamics.
problem Testing financial theories with AI trading agents.
method Simulated stock market with LLMs using a persistent order book and varied strategies.
result LLMs can simulate different trading strategies and market dynamics.
This paper proposes a new model for SPX and VIX derivatives markets.
problem Joint calibration of SPX and VIX markets.
method Composite change of time structure in a time-changed Lévy model.
result Explicit characteristic function and pricing formula derived.
Extends LIBOR market model to reduce exploding scenarios.
problem Exploding scenarios in market-consistent guarantees valuation.
method Mean-field extension of the LIBOR market model.
result Existence and uniqueness of MF-LMM proved.
AlphaLogics mines market logic to generate interpretable alpha factors.
problem Complex, opaque alpha factors from factor mining overlook market logic.
method Market Logic Mining, Factor Generation and Optimization, Market Logic Generation and Optimization.
result AlphaLogics improves predictive metrics and risk-adjusted returns over baselines.
We seek to deepen understanding of the micro-foundations of institutionalization while contributing to a sociological theory of markets by investigating the puzzle of price bubbles in financial markets. We find that such markets, despite textbook conditions of high efficiency -- perfect information, atomistic agents, n…
Improved financial market calibration reveals large excess volatility.
problem Large excess volatility in financial markets.
method Extended Chiarella model to handle long-term value drifts, calibrated on multiple asset classes.
result Large excess volatility (factor ≈ 4 for stock indices) and bimodal mispricing distribution.
Causalities of the Taiwan Stock Marketcond-mat.stat-mech
Volatility, fitting with first order Landau expansion, stationarity, and causality of the Taiwan stock market (TAIEX) are investigated based on daily records. Instead of consensuses that consider stock market index change as a random time series we propose the market change as a dual time series consists of the index a…
We consider the problem of decomposing monetary risk in the presence of a fully traded market in {\it some} risks. We show that a mark-to-market approach to pricing leads to such a decomposition if the risk measure is time-consistent in the sense of Delbaen.
China's stock market is the largest emerging market all over the world. It is widely accepted that the Chinese stock market is far from efficiency and it possesses possible linear and nonlinear dependence. We study the predictability of returns in the Chinese stock market by employing the wild bootstrap automatic varia…
We suggest an intermediate currency approach that allows us to price options on all FX markets simultaneously under the same risk-neutral measure which ensures consistency of FX option prices across all markets. In particular, it is sufficient to calibrate a model to the volatility smile on the domestic market as, due …
The paper concerns primal and dual representations as well as time consistency of set-valued dynamic risk measures. Set-valued risk measures appear naturally when markets with transaction costs are considered and capital requirements can be made in a basket of currencies or assets. Time consistency of scalar risk measu…
We present an empirical study of the intertwined behaviour of members in a financial market. Exploiting a database where the broker that initiates an order book event can be identified, we decompose the correlation and response functions into contributions coming from different market participants and study how their b…
Optimal market making strategy for electronic markets with persistent order flows.
problem Market making on electronic markets with persistent order flows.
method Formulated as a stochastic control problem, characterized by viscosity solutions, and implemented numerically.
result Characterization of an optimal market making strategy.
This paper shows how to recover a stochastic volatility model (SVM) from a market model of the VIX futures term structure. Market models have more flexibility for fitting of curves than do SVMs, and therefore are better suited for pricing VIX futures and VIX derivatives. But the VIX itself is a derivative of the S&P500…
Although the threshold network is one of the most used tools to characterize the underlying structure of a stock market, the identification of the optimal threshold to construct a reliable stock network remains challenging. In this paper, the concept of dynamic consistence between the threshold network and the stock ma…
Hierarchical analysis is considered and a multilevel model is presented in order to explore causality, chance and complexity in financial economics. A coupled system of models is used to describe multilevel interactions, consistent with market data: the lowest level is occupied by agents generating the prices of indivi…
Study examines if LLMs' trading styles match real market behavior.
problem Lack of behavioral consistency in LLMs' trading strategies.
method Year-long simulations with LLMs, operationalizing behavioral finance drivers, and comparing with financial theory.
result LLMs' strategy switching is only partially consistent with behavioral finance theories.
Inefficient markets allow investors to consistently outperform the market. To demonstrate that inefficiencies exist in sports betting markets, we created a betting algorithm that generates above market returns for the NFL, NBA, NCAAF, NCAAB, and WNBA betting markets. To formulate our betting strategy, we collected and …
Insurance-Finance Arbitrageq-fin.MF
This paper explores how insurance contracts can be traded in financial markets.
problem The exclusion of arbitrage in insurance contracts due to their non-tradability.
method Defining strategies on insurance portfolios and combining them with financial trading strategies.
result The existence of an insurance-finance-consistent probability, leading to the expected discounted cash-flows.
Study uses Kalman-Filter to assess market efficiency in major stock markets.
problem Assessing market efficiency in major stock markets.
method Utilizes Kalman-Filter in two stages, assuming a trendline representing true market value.
result Significant portfolio returns in emerging and developed markets.
Automated market-making for CBDCs and stable coins on blockchain.
problem Creating fair exchange rates for digital assets on blockchain.
method Developed an innovative approach for generating fair exchange rates.
result Illustrated the approach's efficacy on G-10 currency exchange rates.
Unified framework connects two market-making models, revealing their underlying equivalence.
problem Independent calibration of two market-making frameworks (Avellaneda-Stoikov and Cartea-Jaimungal).
method Axiomatic approach to market preference functional, showing equivalence under specific conditions.
result Avellaneda-Stoikov and Cartea-Jaimungal frameworks are equivalent under certain conditions.
We calculate the realized volatility in the spin model of financial markets and examine the returns standardized by the realized volatility. We find that moments of the standardized returns agree with the theoretical values of standard normal variables. This is the first evidence that the return dynamics of the spin fi…
Paper compares ETF and futures carry rates in segmented Bitcoin markets.
problem Limitations in cross-margining between spot Bitcoin and CME futures.
method Estimates carry rates from IBIT options and CME futures, uses put-call parity and daily ETF holdings.
result Mean and median wedge in carry rates is 2.58 and 2.52 percent, respectively.
Investigates portfolio selection for rank-dependent utilities in incomplete markets.
problem Portfolio selection for agents with rank-dependent utility in incomplete financial markets.
method Characterizes deterministic strict equilibrium strategies for constant-coefficient and time-invariant probability weighting functions. Addresses the issue of selecting an optimal strategy from multiple equilibrium strategies for time-variant probability weighting functions.
result Characterizes deterministic strict equilibrium strategies and identifies optimal strategies from multiple equilibrium strategies.
Optimizes asset allocation for risk measures in a Lévy market.
problem Maximizing time-consistent mean-risk reward with general risk measures.
method Uses a generalized Lévy market model and Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation.
result Deterministic optimal solution under certain conditions.
Synchronization Model for Stock Market Asymmetryphysics.soc-ph
The waiting time needed for a stock market index to undergo a given percentage change in its value is found to have an up-down asymmetry, which, surprisingly, is not observed for the individual stocks composing that index. To explain this, we introduce a market model consisting of randomly fluctuating stocks that occas…
In this paper we present results on dynamic multivariate scalar risk measures, which arise in markets with transaction costs and systemic risk. Dual representations of such risk measures are presented. These are then used to obtain the main results of this paper on time consistency; namely, an equivalent recursive form…
In this paper we give sufficient conditions guaranteeing the validity of the well-known minimax theorem for the lower Snell envelope with respect to a family of absolutely continuous probability measures. Such minimax results play an important role in the characterisation of arbitrage-free prices of American contingent…
Study identifies NFT whales driving the market with consistent high returns.
problem Lack of financial analysis of NFT trading ecosystem.
method Longitudinal study of 3.8M NFT transactions, classifying traders into whales, dolphins, and minnows.
result Top 0.1% of NFT traders (whales) drive the market with consistent, high returns.
DiffLOB models future market conditions for better decision-making.
problem Passive generative models cannot explore hypothetical market scenarios.
method Regime-conditioned diffusion model for counterfactual LOB generation.
result DiffLOB enables realistic and controllable generation of LOB trajectories.
In this paper we provide evidence that financial option markets for equity indices give rise to non-trivial dependency structures between its constituents. Thus, if the individual constituent distributions of an equity index are inferred from the single-stock option markets and combined via a Gaussian copula, for examp…