A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Proposes SOVR loss to improve adversarial robustness by increasing logit margins.
We consider estimating the marginal likelihood in settings with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) data. We propose estimating the predictive distributions in a sequential factorization of the marginal likelihood in such settings by using stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. This appro…
Kernel methods have revolutionized the fields of pattern recognition and machine learning. Their success, however, critically depends on the choice of kernel parameters. Using Gaussian process (GP) classification as a working example, this paper focuses on Bayesian inference of covariance (kernel) parameters using Mark…
AIS uses a suboptimal extended target distribution, which this paper improves using SGM.
Optimizes AIS hyperparameters for efficient marginal likelihood estimation.
mAIS improves free energy evaluation efficiency.
We consider the problem of cost sensitive multiclass classification, where we would like to increase the sensitivity of an important class at the expense of a less important one. We adopt an {\em apportioned margin} framework to address this problem, which enables an efficient margin shift between classes that share th…
Corrects errors in ILA for Bayesian inference in LGMs.
A new method estimates marginal likelihood using normalizing flows.
Sequential Monte Carlo techniques are useful for state estimation in non-linear, non-Gaussian dynamic models. These methods allow us to approximate the joint posterior distribution using sequential importance sampling. In this framework, the dimension of the target distribution grows with each time step, thus it is nec…
The paper emphasizes the importance of joint predictions over marginal predictions for decision-making.
DAIS improves AIS for differentiable marginal likelihood estimation.
This survey explores various optimality concepts in importance sampling.
New MI bounds improve estimation in deep generative models.
Probabilistic graphical models are powerful tools which allow us to formalise our knowledge about the world and reason about its inherent uncertainty. There exist a considerable number of methods for performing inference in probabilistic graphical models; however, they can be computationally costly due to significant t…
Motivated by the many real-world applications of reinforcement learning (RL) that require safe-policy iterations, we consider the problem of off-policy evaluation (OPE) -- the problem of evaluating a new policy using the historical data obtained by different behavior policies -- under the model of nonstationary episodi…
We consider the problem of inference in a causal generative model where the set of available observations differs between data instances. We show how combining samples drawn from the graphical model with an appropriate masking function makes it possible to train a single neural network to approximate all the correspond…
Deep RL approach improves MIS for complex environments.
Recent reports have described that the equivalent sample size (ESS) in a Dirichlet prior plays an important role in learning Bayesian networks. This paper provides an asymptotic analysis of the marginal likelihood score for a Bayesian network. Results show that the ratio of the ESS and sample size determine the penalty…
The support vector machine (SVM) is an important class of learning machines for function approach, pattern recognition, and time-serious prediction, etc. It maps samples into the feature space by so-called support vectors of selected samples, and then feature vectors are separated by maximum margin hyperplane. The pres…
Margin enlargement over training data has been an important strategy since perceptrons in machine learning for the purpose of boosting the robustness of classifiers toward a good generalization ability. Yet Breiman (1999) showed a dilemma that a uniform improvement on margin distribution does NOT necessarily reduces ge…
Computing the marginal likelihood (ML) of a model requires marginalizing out all of the parameters and latent variables, a difficult high-dimensional summation or integration problem. To make matters worse, it is often hard to measure the accuracy of one's ML estimates. We present bidirectional Monte Carlo, a technique…
New offline RL method works with limited data and function approximators.
Study shows offline RL with partial coverage and weak function classes is possible.
Variational inference (VI) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are two main approximate approaches for learning deep generative models by maximizing marginal likelihood. In this paper, we propose using annealed importance sampling for learning deep generative models. Our proposed approach bridges VI with MCMC. It gener…
Variational inference approximates the posterior distribution of a probabilistic model with a parameterized density by maximizing a lower bound for the model evidence. Modern solutions fit a flexible approximation with stochastic gradient descent, using Monte Carlo approximation for the gradients. This enables variatio…
SUMO provides unbiased log marginal likelihood estimation for latent variable models.
Develops bounds predicting deep learning generalization using optimal transport.
The paper explains why estimating a history-dependent policy can reduce MSE in reinforcement learning.
Speeding up Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) for datasets with many observations by data subsampling has recently received considerable attention. A pseudo-marginal MCMC method is proposed that estimates the likelihood by data subsampling using a block-Poisson estimator. The estimator is a product of Poisson estimators,…
New method improves model explainability.
New methods improve Bayesian inference and decision-making in online learning.
MACQ method explains deep learning models by analyzing feature contributions across prediction levels.
New insights on bias in multi-armed bandits under conditional sampling.
Detection of protein-protein interactions (PPIs) plays a vital role in molecular biology. Particularly, infections are caused by the interactions of host and pathogen proteins. It is important to identify host-pathogen interactions (HPIs) to discover new drugs to counter infectious diseases. Conventional wet lab PPI pr…
The Importance Weighted Auto Encoder (IWAE) objective has been shown to improve the training of generative models over the standard Variational Auto Encoder (VAE) objective. Here, we derive importance weighted extensions to AVB and AAE. These latent variable models use implicitly defined inference networks whose approx…
Partition functions of probability distributions are important quantities for model evaluation and comparisons. We present a new method to compute partition functions of complex and multimodal distributions. Such distributions are often sampled using simulated tempering, which augments the target space with an auxiliar…
Decision stumps accurately screen variables in nonparametric models.
We provide a new local class-purity theorem for Lipschitz continuous DNN classifiers. In addition, we discuss how to achieve classification margin for training samples. Finally, we describe how to compute margin p-values for test samples.
The paper proposes a method to improve Bayesian inference for periodic data using data-driven priors.
Normalizing constant (also called partition function, Bayesian evidence, or marginal likelihood) is one of the central goals of Bayesian inference, yet most of the existing methods are both expensive and inaccurate. Here we develop a new approach, starting from posterior samples obtained with a standard Markov Chain Mo…
We present a new active sampling method we call min-margin which trains multiple learners on bootstrap samples and then chooses the examples to label based on the candidates' minimum margin amongst the bootstrapped models. This extends standard margin sampling in a way that increases its diversity in a supervised manne…
Paper reviews methods for conditional sampling in generative diffusion models.
Improves sampling from complex hierarchical models using HMC and automatic marginalization.
New method for mixed data FI controls type I error and achieves high power.
The paper tackles fVaR prediction methods in finance.
UMFI improves feature importance methods by reducing runtime and enhancing performance.
This work provides guarantees for off-policy function estimation under realizability assumptions.