Bayesian causal inference method improves accuracy over traditional approaches.
problem Bayesian marginalisation over causal models is computationally infeasible.
method Decomposes structure marginalisation into causal orders and DAGs, using Gaussian processes for mechanisms and ARCO for orders.
result Method outperforms state-of-the-art in structure learning and inference.
Framework for uncertainty estimation in training parameters.
problem Estimating uncertainty in training parameters.
method Marginalizing hyperparameters as random variables, investigating various forms of marginalisation.
result Some marginalisations can reliably estimate uncertainty without extensive tuning.
Study different masking schemes for a universal marginaliser.
problem Understand how well a neural approximator learns conditional distributions.
method Compare networks trained with various masking schemes.
result Neural approximators perform differently based on the masking scheme.
Differentiable algorithm for time-series changepoint inference.
problem Posterior inference on time-series models with unknown changepoints.
method Differentiable algorithm based on dynamic programming.
result Improves time complexity from O(n^m) to O(mn).
Efficiently marginalizes over Gaussian Process kernels for better model flexibility and uncertainty.
problem Inefficient marginalization over Gaussian Process kernels for large datasets.
method Bayesian Quadrature scheme with maximum mean discrepancies and invariances between Spectral Mixture kernels.
result Achieves more accurate predictions and better calibrated uncertainty than state-of-the-art baselines.
Novel deep Gaussian process improves predictive uncertainty.
problem Flexible probabilistic data representations with tractable inference.
method Structured Gaussian variational family with marginalisation.
result Improved accuracy and calibrated uncertainty estimates.
We study a probabilistic numerical method for the solution of both boundary and initial value problems that returns a joint Gaussian process posterior over the solution. Such methods have concrete value in the statistics on Riemannian manifolds, where non-analytic ordinary differential equations are involved in virtual…
Probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) are powerful modelling tools which allow to formalise our knowledge about the world and reason about its inherent uncertainty. Inference methods used in PPL can be computationally costly due to significant time burden and/or storage requirements; or they can lack theoretical g…
In this paper, we study classes of graphs with three types of edges that capture the modified independence structure of a directed acyclic graph (DAG) after marginalisation over unobserved variables and conditioning on selection variables using the m-separation criterion. These include MC, summary, and ancestral grap…
Bayesian Gaussian Processes improve exoplanet transit and Hubble constant inference.
problem Improving exoplanet transit and Hubble constant inference using Bayesian Gaussian Processes.
method Kernel-, mean- and noise-marginalised Gaussian Processes with evidence-based model comparison and transdimensional sampling.
result Inferred Hubble constant H0 values from cosmic chronometers, baryon acoustic oscillations and combined datasets are 66±6kms−1Mpc−1, 67±10kms−1Mpc−1 and 69±6kms−1Mpc−1, respectively. Bayesian neural networks benefit from fully marginalizing over all modes to improve generalization.
problem Bayesian neural networks suffer from multimodal posterior distributions that can lead to suboptimal generalization.
method Use appropriate Bayesian sampling tools to fully marginalize over all posterior modes.
result Training with full marginalization improves the ability of the network to reason between multiple candidate solutions.
Empowerment quantifies the influence an agent has on its environment. This is formally achieved by the maximum of the expected KL-divergence between the distribution of the successor state conditioned on a specific action and a distribution where the actions are marginalised out. This is a natural candidate for an intr…
This paper uses Nested Sampling to improve Gaussian Process uncertainty quantification.
problem Underestimating predictive uncertainty and overfitting in Gaussian Process models.
method Marginalises hyperparameters using Nested Sampling for spectral mixture kernels.
result Improves predictive performance and uncertainty quantification across various data sets.
Random Forests are reinterpreted as generative models to handle missing data and detect outliers.
problem Handling missing features and detecting outliers in Random Forests.
method Interpreting Random Forests as Probabilistic Circuits and applying marginalisation for missing data.
result GeDTs and GeFs can handle missing data and detect outliers under certain assumptions.
Integration over non-negative integrands is a central problem in machine learning (e.g. for model averaging, (hyper-)parameter marginalisation, and computing posterior predictive distributions). Bayesian Quadrature is a probabilistic numerical integration technique that performs promisingly when compared to traditional…
GNIs induce a regulariser that penalizes high-frequency components in neural network activations.
problem Understanding the regularizing effect of Gaussian noise injections on neural network activations.
method Deriving the explicit regularizer by marginalizing out injected noise and analyzing its effect in the Fourier domain.
result GNIs induce a regularizer that produces calibrated classifiers with large margins.
Single-pass method estimates neural network uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty estimation in deep learning requires multiple passes.
method Probabilistic reasoning over neural network depths.
result Single forward pass for uncertainty estimation.
Proposes a new Gaussian factor for probabilistic inference with degenerate settings.
problem Handling linear dependencies among random variables in Gaussian networks.
method Introduces a parametrised factor that relaxes the positive-definite constraint of the covariance matrix.
result Accurately accommodates degeneracies in probabilistic inference without significant computational overhead.
Marginalising out uncertain quantities within the internal representations or parameters of neural networks is of central importance for a wide range of learning techniques, such as empirical, variational or full Bayesian methods. We set out to generalise fast dropout (Wang & Manning, 2013) to cover a wider variety of …
Bayesian Quadrature improves ensembling for neural networks with dispersed likelihood peaks.
problem Ensembling neural networks struggles with dispersed, narrow peaks in likelihood surfaces.
method Uses Bayesian Quadrature to construct weighted ensembles of architectures.
result Empirically outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in test likelihood, accuracy, and expected calibration error.
A new Metropolis-Hastings algorithm uses Gaussian Processes to speed up sampling from complex models.
problem Sampling from computationally expensive probabilistic models.
method Two-stage Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with a Gaussian Process surrogate model.
result The approach learns the target distribution while sampling, eliminating the need for pre-training.
One-shot neural architecture search limits depth search space and prunes networks for better performance and uncertainty.
problem Finding optimal depth in residual networks for efficient training and inference.
method Formulated a variational objective to approximate the depth distribution and pruned networks based on this distribution.
result Pruned networks achieve competitive accuracy with unpruned networks and better uncertainty calibration.
Improved GP decoder training with SAS approximations.
problem Training expensive Gaussian process decoders is challenging and computationally expensive.
method Developed a new stochastic estimate of log-marginal likelihood based on cross-validation.
result SAS-GP improves robustness and reduces computational cost compared to variational autoencoders.
Complex systems can be modelled at various levels of detail. Ideally, causal models of the same system should be consistent with one another in the sense that they agree in their predictions of the effects of interventions. We formalise this notion of consistency in the case of Structural Equation Models (SEMs) by intr…
NDPs learn to sample from complex function distributions using neural networks and diffusion models.
problem Learning rich distributions over functions with neural networks.
method NDPs use denoising diffusion models and custom attention blocks to incorporate stochastic process properties.
result NDPs can capture functional distributions close to true Bayesian posteriors and outperform neural processes.
Model discrimination identifies a mathematical model that usefully explains and predicts a given system's behaviour. Researchers will often have several models, i.e. hypotheses, about an underlying system mechanism, but insufficient experimental data to discriminate between the models, i.e. discard inaccurate models. G…
We address the problem of causal discovery from data, making use of the recently proposed causal modeling framework of modular structural causal models (mSCM) to handle cycles, latent confounders and non-linearities. We introduce σ-connection graphs (σ-CG), a new class of mixed graphs (containing undirected, bidirected…
Pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings (pmMH) is a powerful method for Bayesian inference in models where the posterior distribution is analytical intractable or computationally costly to evaluate directly. It operates by introducing additional auxiliary variables into the model and form an extended target distribution, w…
The issue of fairness in machine learning models has recently attracted a lot of attention as ensuring it will ensure continued confidence of the general public in the deployment of machine learning systems. We focus on mitigating the harm incurred by a biased machine learning system that offers better outputs (e.g. lo…
A new algorithm improves topic model accuracy in small data sets.
problem Limited data leads to inaccurate topic model identification.
method Developed a novel variational message passing algorithm (ALBU) for LDA.
result ALBU learns latent distributions more accurately than Variational Bayes (VB) in small data sets.
Statistical uncertainties are rarely incorporated in machine learning algorithms, especially for anomaly detection. Here we present the Bayesian Anomaly Detection And Classification (BADAC) formalism, which provides a unified statistical approach to classification and anomaly detection within a hierarchical Bayesian fr…
Probabilistic graphical models are powerful tools which allow us to formalise our knowledge about the world and reason about its inherent uncertainty. There exist a considerable number of methods for performing inference in probabilistic graphical models; however, they can be computationally costly due to significant t…
Transductive Adversarial Networks (TAN) is a novel domain-adaptation machine learning framework that is designed for learning a conditional probability distribution on unlabelled input data in a target domain, while also only having access to: (1) easily obtained labelled data from a related source domain, which may ha…
A novel VAE called πVAE models complex data with stochastic processes.
problem Efficient inference of stochastic processes for Bayesian deep learning with big data.
method πVAE is a finitely exchangeable, Kolmogorov consistent, continuous stochastic process VAE.
result πVAE achieves state-of-the-art performance in tasks like spatial interpolation.
The Gaussian Process Latent Variable Model (GP-LVM) is a non-linear probabilistic method of embedding a high dimensional dataset in terms low dimensional `latent' variables. In this paper we illustrate that maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation of the latent variables and hyperparameters can be used for model selection…
Bayesian optimisation improves with fully-Bayesian treatment of hyperparameters.
problem Overconfident model predictions in BO due to ignoring hyperparameter uncertainty.
method Investigate FBBO using three approximate inference schemes compared to maximum likelihood approach.
result FBBO using EI with an ARD kernel leads to best performance in noise-free setting.
Proposes a method to learn conditional VAEs from datasets with missing covariates.
problem Learning conditional VAEs from datasets with missing covariates.
method Augments conditional VAEs with a prior distribution for missing covariates and estimates their posterior using amortised variational inference.
result The proposed method outperforms previous methods in learning conditional VAEs from non-temporal, temporal, and longitudinal datasets.
New model solves PDEs using probabilistic random grids.
problem Solving parametric PDEs with probabilistic collocation grids.
method Random Grid Neural Processes (RGNPs) with GICNets.
result Significant computational advantages and improved predictive capabilities.
ALBU improves LDA performance on small datasets.
problem Limited data impairs variational Bayes in LDA.
method Approximate Loopy Belief message passing algorithm.
result ALBU learns latent distributions more accurately than VB, especially for smaller data sets.
New priors for deep neural networks converge to Gaussian processes.
problem Improving the performance and stability of deep neural networks.
method Extending prior distributions to include non-zero means and partially exchangeable priors, leading to a new Gaussian process model.
result The new Gaussian process model avoids pathologies and improves performance on regression problems.
Paper presents a novel time series clustering algorithm for financial inclusion.
problem Difficulty in understanding consumer financial behavior without restrictive credit scoring.
method Developed a novel time series clustering algorithm.
result Allows institutions to offer unique financial products based on customer needs.
Exactly solvable model reveals how data geometry influences ML bias.
problem How data geometry affects machine learning bias.
method High-dimensional data imbalance model, statistical physics tools.
result Exact predictions for fairness metrics and mitigation strategies.
This work debiases deep chest X-ray classifiers using intra- and post-processing methods.
problem Bias in deep neural networks for chest X-ray classification.
method Intra-processing techniques (fine-tuning and pruning) and post-processing methods.
result Successfully mitigates biases in fully connected and convolutional neural networks, offering stable performance.
We introduce a new family of MCMC samplers that combine auxiliary variables, Gibbs sampling and Taylor expansions of the target density. Our approach permits the marginalisation over the auxiliary variables yielding marginal samplers, or the augmentation of the auxiliary variables, yielding auxiliary samplers. The well…
We establish causal semantics for SDEs and develop methods to reason about them.
problem Understanding causal relationships in systems modeled by stochastic differential equations.
method We introduce a causal graph framework, Markov properties, and do-calculus for SDEs.
result We prove the σ-separation Markov property and do-calculus for causal SDEs. DINOSAUR improves retrieval by accounting for embedding uncertainty in recommender systems.
problem Retrieval bias towards popular items due to noisy embeddings.
method Samples multiple embeddings per item and queries with sampled embeddings to account for uncertainty.
result Improves coverage of long-tail niche content without sacrificing recall.