MCD reformulates conditional density estimation into binary classification.
problem Conditional density estimation in statistical and machine learning.
method Marginal Contrastive Discrimination, reformulating into marginal and ratio density functions for binary classification.
result Significantly outperforms existing methods on most density models and regression datasets.
Estimates high-dimensional posterior densities by marginal distributions and neural networks.
problem High-dimensional probability density estimation for inference is difficult.
method Direct estimation of lower-dimensional marginal distributions, using Moment Networks for fast computation of moments.
result Demonstrates estimation of gravitational wave time series and applications in cosmology.
We prove that the marginal densities of a global probability mass function in a primal normal factor graph and the corresponding marginal densities in the dual normal factor graph are related via local mappings. The mapping depends on the Fourier transform of the local factors of the models. Details of the mapping, inc…
MDMA provides closed-form marginals and conditionals for deep networks.
problem Lack of closed-form marginals and conditionals in deep neural models.
method MDMA architecture combining deep scalar representations and hierarchical tensor decompositions.
result MDMA outperforms state-of-the-art models in tasks requiring marginalization and conditional inference.
Method estimates joint probability density from samples using low-rank decomposition and random projections.
problem Estimating joint probability density from limited samples.
method Low-rank tensor decomposition, dictionaries, and Radon transforms.
result Algorithm outperforms previous methods in estimating synthetic probability densities.
We study the connections between spectral clustering and the problems of maximum margin clustering, and estimation of the components of level sets of a density function. Specifically, we obtain bounds on the eigenvectors of graph Laplacian matrices in terms of the between cluster separation, and within cluster connecti…
A new imputation method estimates missing values by matching observed marginals from masked data.
problem Missing values in data undermine statistical and machine learning analysis.
method Estimates a distribution from masked observations using positive semi-definite kernel density estimation.
result The method yields both single and multiple imputations from the same fitted density, with statistical consistency and fast adaptive excess risk.
Associating distinct groups of objects (clusters) with contiguous regions of high probability density (high-density clusters), is central to many statistical and machine learning approaches to the classification of unlabelled data. We propose a novel hyperplane classifier for clustering and semi-supervised classificati…
Proposes a new distance metric for multi-marginal optimal transport.
problem Computational scalability in multi-marginal optimal transport.
method Random one-dimensional projections to construct sliced multi-marginal Wasserstein distance.
result Sliced multi-marginal Wasserstein distance is a metric with dimension-free sample complexity.
New findings on PAC learning and marginal distribution estimation.
problem Understanding how PAC learning relates to marginal distribution estimation under distributional constraints.
method Revisited the connection between PAC learning, uniform convergence, and density estimation, considering a known family of marginal distributions.
result PAC learning is sandwiched between two refined models of density estimation, differing only in whether the learner knows the set of well-estimated events in H.
Combines MCTM and NF for flexible multivariate density regression with interpretable marginals.
problem Difficult interpretation of flexible NF models and limitations of MCTM in flexibility.
method Hybrid approach combining MCTM for interpretable marginals and NF for complex joint distributions.
result Demonstrates versatility and improved performance compared to MCTM and other NF models.
In the compagnion paper [Marginal density expansions for diffusions and stochastic volatility, part I] we discussed density expansions for multidimensional diffusions (X1,...,Xd), at fixed time T and projected to their first l coordinates, in the small noise regime. Global conditions were found which replace th…
Quantum probability theory reveals hidden structure in joint probability distributions.
problem Understanding hidden structure in joint probability distributions.
method Modeling joint probability distributions as density operators and applying partial trace.
result Decoding extra information in reduced density operators that captures subsystem interactions.
Proposes a new method for generating synthetic data using copula flows.
problem Challenges of current synthetic data generation methods, especially with mixed real and categorical variables.
method Uses normalizing flows to learn copula density and univariate marginals based on copula theory.
result Demonstrates improved synthetic data generation and density estimation.
In the present paper, given an evolving mixture of probability densities, we define a candidate diffusion process whose marginal law follows the same evolution. We derive as a particular case a stochastic differential equation (SDE) admitting a unique strong solution and whose density evolves as a mixture of Gaussian d…
The paper proposes a new method for density estimation using spline quasi-interpolation for clustering.
problem Density estimation and clustering modeling for multivariate data.
method Spline quasi-interpolation for mono-variate approximation, copulas for multivariate modeling.
result The proposed method achieves accurate clustering of data using copulas and spline quasi-interpolation.
The paper discusses the impact of prior densities on Bayesian model selection.
problem The sensitivity of marginal likelihood to prior choice in Bayesian model selection.
method Analyzes the role of prior densities in model selection, discusses improper priors, and proposes solutions.
result Marginal likelihood can be sensitive to prior choice, but improper priors can still be used with caution.
There is a large body of work on convergence rates either in passive or active learning. Here we outline some of the results that have been obtained, more specifically in a nonparametric setting under assumptions about the smoothness and the margin noise. We also discuss the relative merits of these underlying assumpti…
Estimates copula density for complex data distributions.
problem Estimating copula density from observed data.
method Neural network-based copula density neural estimation (CODINE).
result Novel approach capable of modeling complex distributions.
Proposes a method to construct risk-neutral marginals from arbitrage-free option prices.
problem Lack of risk-neutral marginals that are free of arbitrage and easy to use.
method Explicit construction of risk-neutral marginals from discrete arbitrage-free option prices.
result Explicit construction guarantees risk-neutral marginals free of butterfly and calendar arbitrage.
This paper considers a new family of variational distributions motivated by Sklar's theorem. This family is based on new copula-like densities on the hypercube with non-uniform marginals which can be sampled efficiently, i.e. with a complexity linear in the dimension of state space. Then, the proposed variational densi…
A new MCMC method combines low and high-fidelity models to reduce computation.
problem Inefficient computation of expensive target densities in scientific applications.
method Pseudo-marginal MCMC approach using a telescoping series of low-fidelity models.
result Asymptotically exact multi-fidelity MCMC algorithms for reduced computational cost.
New model for density estimation using tensor trains.
problem Estimation of high-dimensional probability density functions.
method Tensor train-based density estimation (TTDE) with Riemannian optimization.
result TTDE outperforms competitors in training speed and performance.
There is a large body of work on convergence rates either in passive or active learning. Here we first outline some of the main results that have been obtained, more specifically in a nonparametric setting under assumptions about the smoothness of the regression function (or the boundary between classes) and the margin…
Gaussian Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm is one of the most important distributed algorithms in signal processing and statistical learning involving Markov networks. It is well known that the algorithm correctly computes marginal density functions from a high dimensional joint density function over a Markov network i…
Paper connects rejection learning to Bhattacharyya divergence.
problem Learning models to abstain from predictions.
method Developed a link between rejection and thresholding different statistical divergences, focusing on Bhattacharyya divergence.
result Rejector obtained by joint ideal distribution corresponds to thresholding of skewed Bhattacharyya divergence.
A new copula estimation method using classification.
problem Estimating copula density from joint and marginal distributions.
method Train a classifier to distinguish joint density from product of marginals.
result Empirically outperforms existing copula estimators.
Proposes a new method for high-dimensional density estimation.
problem Estimating high-dimensional probability density functions efficiently.
method Tensorizing flow method combining tensor-train and flow-based generative modeling.
result Efficiently constructs an approximate density in tensor-train form and trains a flow model to match empirical distribution.
A new diffusion method approximates Schrödinger bridge with improved convergence.
problem Approximating Schrödinger bridge with Langevin diffusion.
method Leveraging Langevin diffusion to approximate Schrödinger bridge.
result The difference between the two approximations is proportional to the score function.
RNE provides a flexible framework for diffusion models, enabling inference-time control and energy-based training.
problem Insufficient knowledge of marginal densities in diffusion models.
method Introduces Radon-Nikodym Estimator (RNE) to reveal the connection between marginal densities and transition kernels.
result RNE delivers strong results in inference-time control and energy-based diffusion training.
New estimator reduces variance in off-policy evaluation for contextual bandits.
problem High variance in current OPE methods for contextual bandits.
method Marginal Density Ratio (MR) estimator focusing on marginal distribution shift.
result MR estimator reduces variance compared to IPW and DR methods.
This paper studies convergence properties of multivariate distributions constructed by endowing empirical margins with a copula. This setting includes Latin Hypercube Sampling with dependence, also known as the Iman--Conover method. The primary question addressed here is the convergence of the component sum, which is r…
New algorithm samples neural network posteriors efficiently.
problem Challenges of sampling multimodal Bayesian posteriors for neural networks.
method Greedy Bayes method using log-concave coupling of posterior and auxiliary random variable.
result Log-concave coupling facilitates efficient sampling of neuron weights.
New tractable density models from squaring neural networks.
problem Flexible models for probability distributions in machine learning.
method Squared Neural Family (SNEFY) models formed by squaring neural network outputs and normalizing.
result SNEFYs are fully tractable with closed form normalizing constants in many cases.
We consider discrete graphical models Markov with respect to a graph G and propose two distributed marginal methods to estimate the maximum likelihood estimate of the canonical parameter of the model. Both methods are based on a relaxation of the marginal likelihood obtained by considering the density of the variable…
New MI bounds improve estimation in deep generative models.
problem Estimating mutual information without density information is intractable.
method Importance sampling, Annealed Importance Sampling, Generalized IWAE, MINE-AIS.
result Improved bounds for estimating mutual information in deep models.
QB-Vine extends Quasi-Bayesian methods to high dimensions using vine copulas.
problem Efficiently predicting high-dimensional distributions without sampling.
method Recursive Quasi-Bayesian construction for marginals and vine copulas for dependence modeling.
result QB-Vine is a fully non-parametric density estimator with analytical form and convergence rate independent of dimension.
This survey explores various optimality concepts in importance sampling.
problem Designing optimal proposal densities for Monte Carlo methods.
method Review of multiple frameworks and theoretical comparisons.
result Comprehensive understanding of optimality in importance sampling.
We propose a high dimensional classification method that involves nonparametric feature augmentation. Knowing that marginal density ratios are the most powerful univariate classifiers, we use the ratio estimates to transform the original feature measurements. Subsequently, penalized logistic regression is invoked, taki…
Density expansions for hypoelliptic diffusions (X1,...,Xd) are revisited. In particular, we are interested in density expansions of the projection (XT1,...,XTl), at time T>0, with l≤d. Global conditions are found which replace the well-known "not-in-cutlocus" condition known from heat-kernel asymptot…
This work improves density estimation by characterizing pdf complexity using NL-spectrum.
problem Improving density estimation rates for general probability densities.
method Introducing NL-spectrum to characterize pdf complexity and deriving dimension-independent rates of convergence.
result Dimension-independent rates of convergence for fast density estimation.
Normalized compound random measures are flexible nonparametric priors for related distributions. We consider building general nonparametric regression models using normalized compound random measure mixture models. Posterior inference is made using a novel pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings sampler for normalized comp…
Deep RL approach improves MIS for complex environments.
problem Improving off-policy evaluation for complex environments.
method Uses successor representation from deep RL to decouple reward and dynamics.
result Empirically stable and applicable to high-dimensional domains.
In this paper, we obtain sharp asymptotic formulas with error estimates for the Mellin convolution of functions, and use these formulas to characterize the asymptotic behavior of marginal distribution densities of stock price processes in mixed stochastic models. Special examples of mixed models are jump-diffusion mode…
Standard methods for anomaly detection assume that all features are observed at both learning time and prediction time. Such methods cannot process data containing missing values. This paper studies five strategies for handling missing values in test queries: (a) mean imputation, (b) MAP imputation, (c) reduction (redu…
Semisupervised methods inevitably invoke some assumption that links the marginal distribution of the features to the regression function of the label. Most commonly, the cluster or manifold assumptions are used which imply that the regression function is smooth over high-density clusters or manifolds supporting the dat…
Quantum computing speeds up option pricing for multiple assets.
problem High-dimensional integration bottleneck in option pricing.
method Calibrated marginal distributions, Gaussian copula, QAMC with QAE.
result QAMC reduces integration queries by 10-100 times for similar precision.
Develops conformal Bayes for two-sided censored Gaussian regression under label shift.
problem Prediction under label shift with censored responses.
method Combines posterior predictive tilting with weighted conformal calibration.
result Restores marginal coverage with smaller prediction sets.