A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Margin trading and short selling boost green tech innovation in China.
Study shows exponential error reduction in multiclass classification without bias-variance trade-off.
Margin trading in which investors purchase shares with money borrowed from brokers is blamed to be a major cause of the 2015 Chinese stock market crash. We propose a cascading failure model and examine how an increase in margin trading increases share price vulnerability. The model is based on a bipartite graph of inve…
Metaheuristics optimize portfolios with pre-assignment and margin trading for better risk-adjusted returns.
Both in practice and in the academic literature, models for setting margin requirements in futures markets classically use daily closing price changes. However, as well documented by research on high-frequency data, financial markets have recently shown high intraday volatility, which could bring more risk than expecte…
In critical decision-making scenarios, optimizing accuracy can lead to a biased classifier, hence past work recommends enforcing group-based fairness metrics in addition to maximizing accuracy. However, doing so exposes the classifier to another kind of bias called infra-marginality. This refers to individual-level bia…
We obtain bounds on the distribution of the maximum of a martingale with fixed marginals at finitely many intermediate times. The bounds are sharp and attained by a solution to -marginal Skorokhod embedding problem in Obłój and Spoida [An iterated Azéma-Yor type embedding for finitely many marginals (2013) Preprint]…
Deep models, while being extremely versatile and accurate, are vulnerable to adversarial attacks: slight perturbations that are imperceptible to humans can completely flip the prediction of deep models. Many attack and defense mechanisms have been proposed, although a satisfying solution still largely remains elusive. …
Triangle fees adjust fees based on trade size and price movement, improving price accuracy and revenue.
Study finds Binance's tether-margined contracts significantly impact bitcoin volatility.
In this paper we extend the existing literature on xVA along three directions. First, we enhance current BSDE-based xVA frameworks to include initial margin in presence of defaults. Next, we solve the consistency problem that arises when the front-office desk of the bank uses trade-specific discount curves (CSA discoun…
In order to protect brokers from customer defaults in a volatile market, an active margin system is proposed for the transactions of margin lending in China. The probability of negative return under the condition that collaterals are liquidated in a falling market is used to measure the risk associated with margin loan…
Margin system for margin loans using cash and stock as collateral is considered in this paper, which is the line of defence for brokers against risk associated with margin trading. The conditional probability of negative return is used as risk measure, and a recursive algorithm is proposed to realize this measure under…
Study examines liquidation, leverage, and optimal margin requirements in Bitcoin futures markets.
Improves Gaussian process regression without bias.
We study Nash equilibria for inventory-averse high-frequency traders (HFTs), who trade to exploit information about future price changes. For discrete trading rounds, the HFTs' optimal trading strategies and their equilibrium price impact are described by a system of nonlinear equations; explicit solutions obtain aroun…
Study shows how crypto asset liquidity is affected by wash trading and proposes treatment to reduce liquidity diffusion.
Developed Forex trading heuristics with high profit potential.
An investor with constant relative risk aversion and an infinite planning horizon trades a risky and a safe asset with constant investment opportunities, in the presence of small transaction costs and a binding exogenous portfolio constraint. We explicitly derive the optimal trading policy, its welfare, and implied tra…
Boosting algorithms produce a classifier by iteratively combining base hypotheses. It has been observed experimentally that the generalization error keeps improving even after achieving zero training error. One popular explanation attributes this to improvements in margins. A common goal in a long line of research, is …
In this article, we combine replication pricing with expectation pricing for derivative trades that are partially collateralized by cash. The derivatives are replicated by underlying assets and cash, using repurchasing agreement (repo) and margining, which incur funding costs. We derive a partial differential equation …
We are interested in the existence of equivalent martingale measures and the detection of arbitrage opportunities in markets where several multi-asset derivatives are traded simultaneously. More specifically, we consider a financial market with multiple traded assets whose marginal risk-neutral distributions are known,…
MiCA regulation led to a shift in stablecoin dominance.
The paper proposes effective margin regularization to improve adversarial robustness in deep neural networks.
Margin enlargement over training data has been an important strategy since perceptrons in machine learning for the purpose of boosting the robustness of classifiers toward a good generalization ability. Yet Breiman (1999) showed a dilemma that a uniform improvement on margin distribution does NOT necessarily reduces ge…
Worst-case bounds on the expected shortfall risk given only limited information on the distribution of the random variables has been studied extensively in the literature. In this paper, we develop a new worst-case bound on the expected shortfall when the univariate marginals are known exactly and additional expert inf…
This document constitutes the final report of the contractual activity between Directa SIM and Dipartimento di Automatica e Informatica, Politecnico di Torino, on the research topic titled "quantificazione del rischio di un portafoglio di strumenti finanziari per trading online su device fissi e mobili."
DGNN predicts financial margin calls under stress tests.
Paper presents a modular RL framework for Forex trading, addressing limitations of prior studies.
The utility of Potential Future Exposure (PFE) for counterparty trading limits is being challenged by new market developments, notably widespread regulatory Initial Margin (using 99% 10-day exposure), and netting of trade and collateral flows. However PFE has pre-existing challenges w.r.t. portfolios/distributions, col…
PrAda-GAN improves synthetic data generation under differential privacy.
New method improves consistency in preference learning for neural networks.
This paper presents a stochastic model for discrete-time trading in financial markets where trading costs are given by convex cost functions and portfolios are constrained by convex sets. The model does not assume the existence of a cash account/numeraire. In addition to classical frictionless markets and markets with …
Warm starts improve Gaussian process regression by up to 16x.
We investigate the supports of extremal martingale measures with pre-specified marginals in a two-period setting. First, we establish in full generality the equivalence between the extremality of a given measure and the denseness in of a suitable linear subspace, which can be seen in a financial context as…
We present an approach to market-consistent multi-period valuation of insurance liability cash flows based on a two-stage valuation procedure. First, a portfolio of traded financial instrument aimed at replicating the liability cash flow is fixed. Then the residual cash flow is managed by repeated one-period replicatio…
The paper develops a new model-free formula for option initial margins.
This article prices OTC derivatives with either an exogenously determined initial margin profile or endogenously approximated initial margin. In the former case, margin valuation adjustment (MVA) is defined as the liability-side discounted expected margin profile, while in the latter, an extended partial differential e…
A new algorithm COVA-FC improves subgroup-fair clustering efficiency.
Determinantal point processes (DPPs) offer a powerful approach to modeling diversity in many applications where the goal is to select a diverse subset. We study the problem of learning the parameters (the kernel matrix) of a DPP from labeled training data. We make two contributions. First, we show how to reparameterize…
Model shows disclosure reduces trading costs in oligopolistic markets.
Duality for robust hedging with proportional transaction costs of path dependent European options is obtained in a discrete time financial market with one risky asset. Investor's portfolio consists of a dynamically traded stock and a static position in vanilla options which can be exercised at maturity. Both the stock …
Bayesian optimization offers the possibility of optimizing black-box operations not accessible through traditional techniques. The success of Bayesian optimization methods such as Expected Improvement (EI) are significantly affected by the degree of trade-off between exploration and exploitation. Too much exploration c…
Graph-based multi-view model predicts trading volume movement from various sources.
Deep RL algorithm trades high-dimensional stock portfolios.
New method optimizes hyperparameters in deep learning models efficiently.
Black box variational inference (BBVI) with reparameterization gradients triggered the exploration of divergence measures other than the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, such as alpha divergences. In this paper, we view BBVI with generalized divergences as a form of estimating the marginal likelihood via biased import…
Study finds it hard to establish common factor pricing in corporate bonds.