A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study identifies clusters of EU countries with similar young mortality patterns.
Underlying cause of death coding from death certificates is a process that is nowadays undertaken mostly by humans with a potential assistance from expert systems such as the Iris software. It is as a consequence an expensive process that can in addition suffer from geospatial discrepancies, thus severely impairing the…
Jointly models cause-of-death mortality rates across multiple countries and genders.
Looking for associations among multiple variables is a topical issue in statistics due to the increasing amount of data encountered in biology, medicine and many other domains involving statistical applications. Graphical models have recently gained popularity for this purpose in the statistical literature. Following t…
Recently we developed a new framework in Hirz et al (2015) to model stochastic mortality using extended CreditRisk methodology which is very different from traditional time series methods used for mortality modelling previously. In this framework, deaths are driven by common latent stochastic risk factors which may…
AI generates a sequence of death causes from hospital records.
Patients who suffer an acute coronary syndrome are at elevated risk for adverse cardiovascular events such as myocardial infarction and cardiovascular death. Accurate assessment of this risk is crucial to their course of care. We focus on estimating a patient's risk of cardiovascular death after an acute coronary syndr…
Various stochastic models have been proposed to estimate mortality rates. In this paper we illustrate how machine learning techniques allow us to analyze the quality of such mortality models. In addition, we present how these techniques can be used for differentiating the different causes of death in mortality modeling…
Multiple cause-of-death data provides a valuable source of information that can be used to enhance health standards by predicting health related trajectories in societies with large populations. These data are often available in large quantities across U.S. states and require Big Data techniques to uncover complex hidd…
Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Most CRC deaths are the result of progression of metastases. The assessment of metastases is done using the RECIST criterion, which is time consuming and subjective, as clinicians need to manually me…
New method uses birth-death process and exploration component to accelerate sampling from multimodal distributions.
This paper addresses the risk-minimization problem, with and without mortality securitization, à la Föllmer-Sondermann for a large class of equity-linked mortality contracts when no model for the death time is specified. This framework includes the situation where the correlation between the market model and the time o…
Paper develops a method for valid inference using language model predictions from verbal autopsy narratives.
New RL algorithm reduces regret in birth-death queueing problems.
The burgeoning need for kidney transplantation mandates immediate attention. Mismatch of deceased donor-recipient kidney leads to post-transplant death. To ensure ideal kidney donor-recipient match and minimize post-transplant deaths, the paper develops a prediction model that identifies factors that determine the prob…
AI-assisted heart disease diagnosis reduces misdiagnosis and saves lives.
Personalized deep learning reduces inappropriate shocks in VA detection.
Study on excess mortality in Germany during 2020-21.
Model predicts US COVID-19 deaths with quantile estimates.
To predict the employee attrition beforehand and to enable management to take individualized preventive action. Using Ensemble classification modeling techniques and Linear Regression. Model could predict over 91% accurate employee prediction, lead-time in separation and individual reasons causing attrition. Prior inti…
Machine learning predicts mask mandates reduce COVID-19 deaths.
Study shows death ratio of COVID-19 deaths increases financial volatility.
Mobile electrocardiogram (ECG) recording technologies represent a promising tool to fight the ongoing epidemic of cardiovascular diseases, which are responsible for more deaths globally than any other cause. While the ability to monitor one's heart activity at any time in any place is a crucial advantage of such techno…
Using an extended version of the credit risk model CreditRisk+, we develop a flexible framework with numerous applications amongst which we find stochastic mortality modelling, forecasting of death causes as well as profit and loss modelling of life insurance and annuity portfolios which can be used in (partial) intern…
We propose a general method to obtain approximation of the first passage time distribution for the birth-death processes. We rely on the general properties of birth-death processes, Keilson's theorem and the concept of Riemann sum to obtain closed-form expressions. We apply the method to the three selected birth-death …
Study birth-death dynamics for sampling Gibbs measures with nonconvex potentials.
New method evaluates personalized treatment in critical care, robust to death.
We consider models of the population or opinion dynamics which result in the non-linear stochastic differential equations (SDEs) exhibiting the spurious long-range memory. In this context, the correspondence between the description of the birth-death processes as the continuous-time Markov chains and the continuous SDE…
Health risks from cigarette smoking -- the leading cause of preventable death in the United States -- can be substantially reduced by quitting. Although most smokers are motivated to quit, the majority of quit attempts fail. A number of studies have explored the role of self-reported symptoms, physiologic measurements,…
Heart disease is the leading cause of death, and experts estimate that approximately half of all heart attacks and strokes occur in people who have not been flagged as "at risk." Thus, there is an urgent need to improve the accuracy of heart disease diagnosis. To this end, we investigate the potential of using data ana…
Detecting depression early from social media texts.
We find the optimal investment strategy for an individual who seeks to minimize one of four objectives: (1) the probability that his wealth reaches a specified ruin level {\it before} death, (2) the probability that his wealth reaches that level {\it at} death, (3) the expectation of how low his wealth drops below a sp…
Unintentional falls can cause severe injuries and even death, especially if no immediate assistance is given. The aim of Fall Detection Systems (FDSs) is to detect an occurring fall. This information can be used to trigger the necessary assistance in case of injury. This can be done by using either ambient-based sensor…
LSTM Networks accurately forecast COVID-19 cases in Turkey with lower error than other methods.
A fundamental problem in Bayesian inference and statistical machine learning is to efficiently sample from multimodal distributions. Due to metastability, multimodal distributions are difficult to sample using standard Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We propose a new sampling algorithm based on a birth-death mechanis…
ECGDetect uses deep learning to detect ischemia in heart ECGs.
We introduce an additive stochastic mortality model which allows joint modelling and forecasting of underlying death causes. Parameter families for mortality trends can be chosen freely. As model settings become high dimensional, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. We then link our propose…
New algorithm predicts lung cancer progression and mortality.
Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) is considered as one of the principal causes of death in the world. Over recent years, this field of study has attracted researchers' attention to investigate heart sounds' patterns for disease diagnostics. In this study, an approach is proposed for normal/abnormal heart sound classificatio…
Machine learning automates digitization of historical data.
Cardiovascular diseases are one of the most common causes of death in the world. Prevention, knowledge of previous cases in the family, and early detection is the best strategy to reduce this fact. Different machine learning approaches to automatic diagnostic are being proposed to this task. As in most health problems,…
Opioid addiction is a severe public health threat in the U.S, causing massive deaths and many social problems. Accurate relapse prediction is of practical importance for recovering patients since relapse prediction promotes timely relapse preventions that help patients stay clean. In this paper, we introduce a Generati…
In this paper we present a numerical valuation of variable annuities with combined Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit (GMWB) and Guaranteed Minimum Death Benefit (GMDB) under optimal policyholder behaviour solved as an optimal stochastic control problem. This product simultaneously deals with financial risk, mortali…
Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical models that are useful for representing high-dimensional probability distributions. There has been a great deal of interest in recent years in the NP-hard problem of learning the structure of a BN from observed data. Typically, one assigns a score to various structures and the sear…
Study quantifies how COVID-19 spread affects US stock markets.
In this paper we study the financial repercussions of the destruction of two fully armed and operational moon-sized battle stations ("Death Stars") in a 4-year period and the dissolution of the galactic government in Star Wars. The emphasis of this work is to calibrate and simulate a model of the banking and financial …
In the United States, heart disease is the leading cause of death for both men and women, accounting for 610,000 deaths each year [1]. Physicians use Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) scans to take images of the heart in order to non-invasively estimate its structural and functional parameters for cardiovascular diagnos…
Study uses DNA methylation data to predict suicidal and non-suicidal deaths.