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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,694 papers · 148 categories

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3837661,1491,532 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for loss modeling

The study analyzes a model for aggregate losses with dependent and overdispersed inter-losses times.

problem Analyzing aggregate loss models with dependent and overdispersed inter-losses times.
method The study uses a two-state Markovian arrival process (MAP2) and a Markov renewal process to model the inter-losses times. Severities are modeled using a heavy-tailed, double-Pareto Lognormal distribution. The model is estimated via direct maximization of the likelihood function.
result The model with dependence and overdispersion in inter-losses times leads to higher capital charges compared to a Poisson process.

The paper explores transferability of adversarial examples between convex and 01 loss models, finding non-transferability due to different decision boundaries caused by outliers.

problem Transferability of adversarial examples between convex and 01 loss models.
method Empirical study of transferability between linear 01 loss and convex (hinge) loss models, and between neural networks with different activation functions.
result Adversarial examples are non-transferable between convex and 01 loss models due to different decision boundaries caused by outliers.

This work improves diffusion models by estimating the optimal loss value for better training diagnostics.

problem The optimal loss value of diffusion models is unknown and not indicative of absolute data-fitting quality.
method Derive the optimal loss in closed form and develop effective estimators, including a stochastic variant.
result Unlocking the optimal loss as a metric for diagnosing training quality of diffusion models.

Proposes squentropy loss for improved classification accuracy and model calibration.

problem Theoretical and empirical evidence for cross-entropy loss is lacking.
method Introduces squentropy loss as the sum of cross-entropy and average square loss over incorrect classes.
result Squentropy loss outperforms cross-entropy and rescaled square losses in classification accuracy and model calibration.

This paper improves operational risk modeling by selecting better loss severity distributions.

problem Inconsistent regulatory capital calculations due to changing loss severity distribution families.
method Presented truncation probability estimates and a consistent quantile scoring function for selection criteria. Also, recommended collecting loss frequencies below the minimum reporting threshold.
result More stable regulatory capital calculations through better selection of loss severity distributions.

We study proper losses for discrete generative models without knowing the target distribution.

problem Evaluating generative models in the discrete setting without direct access to the target distribution.
method Define and construct black-box proper losses using statistical estimation theory.
result Black-box proper losses must be of polynomial form and involve more samples than the polynomial degree.

Under the Basel II standards, the Operational Risk (OpRisk) advanced measurement approach is not prescriptive regarding the class of statistical model utilised to undertake capital estimation. It has however become well accepted to utlise a Loss Distributional Approach (LDA) paradigm to model the individual OpRisk loss…

2011-02-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper establishes a formula linking model performance to insurance loss ratio.

problem Improving model performance does not always lead to proportional improvements in loss ratio.
method Derives a closed-form formula connecting Pearson correlation to expected loss ratio.
result Model improvements have diminishing marginal returns in reducing loss ratio.

We propose two structural models for stochastic losses given default which allow to model the credit losses of a portfolio of defaultable financial instruments. The credit losses are integrated into a structural model of default events accounting for correlations between the default events and the associated losses. We…

2012-05-24abs ↗pdf ↗

The study finds a trade-off between model size, test loss, and training loss for linear predictors.

problem Finding the optimal balance between model size, test loss, and training loss for linear predictors.
method Established an algorithm and distribution-independent trade-off using non-asymptotic analysis.
result Models with low test loss are either classical (close to noise level training loss) or modern (large number of parameters).

Quantum models face barren plateaus, but specific losses can be trainable.

problem Barren plateaus and loss concentration in quantum generative models.
method Investigated explicit and implicit losses, and their interplay.
result Explicit losses lead to new barren plateaus, while implicit losses can be trainable.

New loss functions based on f-divergences improve language model performance.

problem Improving multiclass classification and language modeling performance.
method Constructing new convex loss functions using f-divergences and deriving an operator for computation.
result The αα-divergence loss function with α=1.5α=1.5 performs well across various tasks.

A hybrid loss framework improves time series forecasting by balancing global and component errors.

problem Current time series methods may prioritize less significant sub-series, leading to forecasting bias.
method Proposes a hybrid loss framework combining global and component losses, dynamically adjusting weights.
result Improves time series forecasting performance by 0.5-2% on average.

New PG losses improve decision optimization in misspecified models.

problem Improving decision optimization in models that are not perfectly specified.
method Introducing Perturbation Gradient (PG) losses to connect decision loss with directional derivatives and optimizing using gradient techniques.
result PG losses yield best-in-class policies asymptotically, even in misspecified settings.

Informer model with GMADL loss outperforms benchmarks in high frequency Bitcoin trading.

problem Developing automated trading strategies for high frequency Bitcoin data.
method Informer architecture with RMSE, GMADL, and Quantile loss functions.
result Informer model with GMADL loss function outperforms benchmarks in trading outcomes.

This paper develops a dynamic internal fraud model for operational losses in retail banking. It considers public operational losses arising from internal fraud in retail banking within a group of international banks. Additionally, the model takes into account internal factors such as the ethical quality of workers and …

2020-02-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Separable losses are inconsistent for structured prediction models.

problem Inconsistency of separable losses in structured prediction models.
method Analysis of separable negative log-likelihood losses for structured prediction.
result Separable losses are not Bayes consistent and may not predict the most probable structure.

Adversarial training makes logistic regression weight loss landscapes sharper.

problem Understanding why adversarial training sharpens the weight loss landscape in logistic regression.
method Theoretical analysis of linear logistic regression model with L2 norm constraints, and experiments on ResNet18.
result Adversarial training sharpens the weight loss landscape in linear logistic regression models.

The minimization of loss functions is the heart and soul of Machine Learning. In this paper, we propose an off-the-shelf optimization approach that can minimize virtually any non-differentiable and non-decomposable loss function (e.g. Miss-classification Rate, AUC, F1, Jaccard Index, Mathew Correlation Coefficient, etc…

2019-05-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Typically, loss functions, regularization mechanisms and other important aspects of training parametric models are chosen heuristically from a limited set of options. In this paper, we take the first step towards automating this process, with the view of producing models which train faster and more robustly. Concretely…

2019-06-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes a hierarchical curriculum loss to improve model accuracy and interpretability.

problem Flat label spaces in classification algorithms fail to capture dependencies in real-world data.
method Introduces hierarchical curriculum loss with two properties: satisfying hierarchical constraints and providing non-uniform label weights.
result The proposed loss function significantly outperforms multiple baselines on real-world image datasets.

In this paper, we propose a new loss function called generalized end-to-end (GE2E) loss, which makes the training of speaker verification models more efficient than our previous tuple-based end-to-end (TE2E) loss function. Unlike TE2E, the GE2E loss function updates the network in a way that emphasizes examples that ar…

2017-10-28abs ↗pdf ↗

Large learning rates improve neural network generalization, study shows.

problem Understanding why large learning rates lead to better neural network generalization.
method Visual analysis of training and testing loss landscapes, introduction of a nonlinear model.
result Extended phase with large learning rates leads to near-optimal generalization.

A new concordance loss improves model performance and reliability in survival prediction.

problem Inconsistent evaluation of deep survival models using likelihood losses.
method Proposed a value-monotone concordance loss (SCL) to improve reliability and optimization.
result SCL achieves comparable discrimination and is the best or within one standard deviation of the best C-index across multiple datasets.

A new loss function for VAEs improves image quality and efficiency.

problem Training VAEs to generate realistic images requires a loss function that reflects human perception.
method Based on Watson's perceptual model, the loss function computes a weighted distance in frequency space, accounts for luminance and contrast masking, and is extended to color images.
result VAEs trained with the new loss function generated high-quality, less blurry images with fewer artifacts and less computational resources.

This paper evaluates various loss functions for Transformer models in stock ranking.

problem Evaluating loss functions for Transformer models in stock ranking.
method Systematic evaluation of advanced loss functions (pointwise, pairwise, listwise) on S&P 500 data.
result Different loss functions impact a model's ability to discern profitable relative orderings among assets.

This work proposes the Bregman-Tweedie classification model and analyzes the domain structure of the extended exponential function, an extension of the classic generalized exponential function with additional scaling parameter, and related high-level mathematical structures, such as the Bregman-Tweedie loss function an…

2019-07-16abs ↗pdf ↗

A new loss function improves neural networks' out-of-distribution detection without side effects.

problem Neural networks struggle with out-of-distribution detection due to SoftMax loss issues.
method Proposes IsoMax loss replacing SoftMax loss, maintaining high entropy and fast inferences.
result Significantly improves neural networks' out-of-distribution detection performance.

Paper introduces MADL loss function for better AIS model optimization.

problem Optimizing machine learning models for AIS construction.
method Proposes Mean Absolute Directional Loss (MADL) function.
result MADL function improves hyperparameter selection and investment strategy efficiency.

Transformer models outperform LSTM in financial forecasting with MADL loss.

problem Optimizing loss functions for Transformer models in financial forecasting.
method Empirical experiments with MADL loss function on equity and cryptocurrency assets.
result Transformer models significantly outperform LSTM models in financial forecasting.

Study on calibration and consistency of adversarial surrogate losses.

problem Designing robust classifiers with theoretical guarantees.
method Extensive analysis of H-calibration and H-consistency of adversarial surrogate losses.
result Some convex loss functions and supremum-based convex losses are not H-calibrated for important hypothesis sets.

The paper justifies time-dependent loss reweighting schemes for flow matching and diffusion models.

problem Theoretical justification for time-dependent loss reweighting schemes in flow matching and diffusion models.
method Clarifies that the loss can depend on both time and state, and shows theoretical justification for time-dependent loss weighting schemes.
result Time-dependent loss weighting schemes are theoretically justified for Generator Matching and Edit Flows.