A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Neural network model improves longevity risk assessment.
Proposes a new model for mortality forecasting considering age groups and cohort effects.
The study uses ML and AI to forecast pension fund mortality, outperforming traditional methods.
We use life annuity prices to extract information about human longevity using a framework that links the term structure of mortality and interest rates. We invert the model and perform nonlinear least squares to obtain implied longevity forecasts. Methodologically, we assume a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model for the und…
Compact formulas for evaluating insurance policies' risks.
In this article we investigate a state-space representation of the Lee-Carter model which is a benchmark stochastic mortality model for forecasting age-specific death rates. Existing relevant literature focuses mainly on mortality forecasting or pricing of longevity derivatives, while the full implications and methods …
This paper assesses the hedge effectiveness of an index-based longevity swap and a longevity cap. Although swaps are a natural instrument for hedging longevity risk, derivatives with non-linear pay-offs, such as longevity caps, also provide downside protection. A tractable stochastic mortality model with age dependent …
Optimizes investment strategies for retirees with longevity risk.
In this paper, we discuss the impact of some mortality data anomalies on an internal model capturing longevity risk in the Solvency 2 framework. In particular, we are concerned with abnormal cohort effects such as those for generations 1919 and 1920, for which the period tables provided by the Human Mortality Database …
Pension schemes all over the world are under increasing pressure to efficiently hedge the longevity risk posed by ageing populations. In this work, we study an optimal investment problem for a defined contribution pension scheme which decides to hedge the longevity risk using a mortality-linked security, typically a lo…
Paper proposes a natural hedging framework with graphical assessment for longevity risk management.
Modeling longevity bonds with a Vasicek model for better risk management.
Paper develops a two-population model to assess longevity basis risk.
This work studies a stochastic optimal control problem for a pension scheme which provides an income-drawdown policy to its members after their retirement. To manage the scheme efficiently, the manager and members agree to share the investment risk based on a pre-decided risk-sharing rule. The objective is to maximise …
Two pension funds mutually insure against longevity risk.
Who {\em values} life annuities more? Is it the healthy retiree who expects to live long and might become a centenarian, or is the unhealthy retiree with a short life expectancy more likely to appreciate the pooling of longevity risk? What if the unhealthy retiree is pooled with someone who is much healthier and thus f…
Historical tontines promised enormous rewards to the last survivors at the expense of those who died early. While this design appealed to the gambling instinct, it is a suboptimal way to manage longevity risk during retirement. This is why fair life annuities making constant payments -- where the insurance company is e…
The paper explores how to fairly share longevity risk among participants of tontine schemes.
Extends model uncertainty framework to non-linear affine processes for longevity bonds and contingent claims.
Optimizes retirement income with MBGs and neural networks for longevity risk.
This paper addresses the risk-minimization problem, with and without mortality securitization, à la Föllmer-Sondermann for a large class of equity-linked mortality contracts when no model for the death time is specified. This framework includes the situation where the correlation between the market model and the time o…
This paper studies optimal investment from the point of view of an investor with longevity-linked liabilities. The relevant optimization problems rarely are analytically tractable, but we are able to show numerically that liability driven investment can significantly outperform common strategies that do not take the li…
The paper validates statistical models for groundwater data.
Analyzes how many people can receive stable income in a pooled annuity fund.
Cointegration helps insurers understand long-range mortality patterns.
We present, solve and numerically simulate a simple model that describes the consequences of increased longevity on fertility rates, population growth and the distribution of wealth in developed societies. We look at the consequences of the repeated use of life extension techniques and show that they represent a novel …
Tontines were once a popular type of mortality-linked investment pool. They promised enormous rewards to the last survivors at the expense of those died early. And, while this design appealed to the gambling instinc}, it is a suboptimal way to generate retirement income. Indeed, actuarially-fair life annuities making c…
We propose the use of statistical emulators for the purpose of valuing mortality-linked contracts in stochastic mortality models. Such models typically require (nested) evaluation of expected values of nonlinear functionals of multi-dimensional stochastic processes. Except in the simplest cases, no closed-form expressi…
Adaptive strategies reduce pension fund costs and risks.
A new tontine design aims to protect longevity risk with non-indexed investments.
Study historical cholera epidemics and simulate long-term mortality impacts.
Upper bounds on utility for managing heterogeneous collectivised funds.
Paper studies optimal investing for retirees with risk constraints.
New tontine model with transaction costs for retirees.
This paper analyzes a novel type of mortality contingent-claim called a ruin-contingent life annuity (RCLA). This product fuses together a path-dependent equity put option with a "personal longevity" call option. The annuitant's (i.e. long position) payoff from a generic RCLA is \$1 of income per year for life, akin to…
The paper develops a valuation framework for GLWB-LTC contracts with Levy dynamics and stochastic interest rates.
Life-expectancy is a complex outcome driven by genetic, socio-demographic, environmental and geographic factors. Increasing socio-economic and health disparities in the United States are propagating the longevity-gap, making it a cause for concern. Earlier studies have probed individual factors but an integrated pictur…
We consider a market model where there are two levels of information. The public information generated by the financial assets, and a larger flow of information that contains additional knowledge about a random time. This random time can represent many economic and financial settings, such as the default time of a firm…
Unified framework explains retirement and annuitization decisions under age-dependent mortality.
The paper optimizes insurance purchases for financial goals.
The purpose of this article is twofold. First, we motivate the need for a new type of stand-alone retirement income insurance product that would help individuals protect against personal longevity risk and possible "retirement ruin" in an economically efficient manner. We label this product a ruin-contingent life annui…
Research identifies four motivational groups for crypto-metaverse landowners.
We introduce a longevity feature to the classical optimal dividend problem by adding a constraint on the time of ruin of the firm. We extend the results in \cite{HJ15}, now in context of one-sided Lévy risk models. We consider de Finetti's problem in both scenarios with and without fix transaction costs, e.g. taxes. We…
Excessive reuse of test data has become commonplace in today's machine learning workflows. Popular benchmarks, competitions, industrial scale tuning, among other applications, all involve test data reuse beyond guidance by statistical confidence bounds. Nonetheless, recent replication studies give evidence that popular…
Optimal reconciliation keeps some forecasts unchanged in hierarchical forecasting.
Short-term load forecasting is a critical element of power systems energy management systems. In recent years, probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) has gained increased attention for its ability to provide uncertainty information that helps to improve the reliability and economics of system operation performances. This…
Combining forecasts of 16 ED causes improves accuracy and stability.
Conditional forecasts improve performative prediction accuracy.