Introduces long-term swap rate and analyzes its relationship with long-term interest rates.
problem Understanding the relationship between long-term swap rate and long-term interest rates.
method Introduces long-term swap rate and analyzes its relationship with long-term interest rates using two term structure methodologies.
result Existence of long-term rates in Flesaker-Hughston model and linear-rational model.
The study proposes a new interest rate model that captures long-term periodicity in U.S. Treasury yields.
problem The conventional Hull-White model fails to adequately capture long-term economic cycles in interest rates.
method The study introduces a sinusoidal Hull-White model with a time-varying mean reversion speed.
result The proposed model improves bond pricing and interest rate derivative valuation, especially for longer maturities.
Analyzes long-term growth rate of leveraged ETFs using martingale extraction.
problem Determines long-term growth rate of leveraged ETFs under various models.
method Develops analytical approach using martingale extraction and eigenpair of infinitesimal generator.
result Derives explicit long-term growth rates for different reference asset models.
This paper analyzes the robust growth rate of leveraged ETFs under uncertain parameters.
problem Analyzing the robust long-term growth rate of leveraged ETFs with uncertain parameters.
method Derive worst-case parameters using comparison principle and martingale extraction method.
result Explicitly obtain robust long-term growth rates under various models.
Empirical study on long-term discount rates using historical bond prices.
problem Estimating long-term real interest rates and discount rates from historical bond data.
method Using Fourier transforms to derive the discount function and fitting it to historical data.
result Estimated long-term discount rates of 1.7% for UK and 2.2% for US.
Bayesian model predicts interest rates with short-term accuracy and long-term stability.
problem Improving short- and long-term prediction of time series with temporary non-stationary behavior.
method Time-varying autoregressive model with Bayesian regularization and MCMC inference.
result Model outperforms existing methods in both short and long-term predictions.
The optimal strategies for a long-term static investor are studied. Given a portfolio of a stock and a bond, we derive the optimal allocation of the capitols to maximize the expected long-term growth rate of a utility function of the wealth. When the bond has constant interest rate, three models for the underlying stoc…
The well-known theorem of Dybvig, Ingersoll and Ross shows that the long zero-coupon rate can never fall. This result, which, although undoubtedly correct, has been regarded by many as surprising, stems from the implicit assumption that the long-term discount function has an exponential tail. We revisit the problem in …
In this paper, we present own point of view how the unexpected fluctuations of the long-term real interest rate can be explained. We describe a macroeconomic environment by the modification of the fundamental macroeconomic equilibrium model called the IS-LM model. Last but not least, we suggest a possible cooperation b…
We employ the Bayesian framework to define a cointegration measure aimed to represent long term relationships between time series. For visualization of these relationships we introduce a dissimilarity matrix and a map based on the Sorting Points Into Neighborhoods (SPIN) technique, which has been previously used to ana…
LR models are shown to represent and be represented by LG processes, with key properties facilitating interest rate consistency and long-term risk factorization.
problem Understanding the relationship between linearity-generating and linear-rational models.
method Comparing and contrasting LG and LR models, showing mutual representation and identifying key properties.
result LR models can represent and be represented by LG processes, with specific properties facilitating interest rate consistency and long-term risk factorization.
The paper develops a valuation framework for GLWB-LTC contracts with Levy dynamics and stochastic interest rates.
problem Valuation of GLWB-LTC contracts with financial guarantees, longevity protection, and health-contingent LTC payments.
method Coupling a recombining Hull-White trinomial tree with an IMEX finite difference scheme, incorporating a seven-state health model.
result Hybrid tree-IMEX method delivers stable long-maturity prices consistent with simulation benchmarks.
The paper models exchange rate risk premium using mean-reverting dynamics.
problem Empirical failure of uncovered interest parity (UIP).
method Modeling risk premium using Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process embedded in stochastic differential equation for exchange rate.
result The model shows strong predictive performance at short and long horizons, but underperforms at intermediate horizons.
The paper analyzes insurance risks using stochastic models.
problem Interest rate and variance risks in unit-linked insurance policies.
method General stochastic volatility models and stochastic interest rates are used to price unit-linked life insurance contracts.
result A perfect hedging strategy is provided and compared with the Black-Scholes model.
Proposes a stochastic model for South African actuarial use.
problem Long-term forecasting for South African institutions.
method Modeling economic series, estimating parameters, testing stability.
result Validated model for long-term forecasts.
This paper analyzes the causal relationships among China's bond market interest rates.
problem Identifying the key interest rates with broad influence on China's bond market.
method Developed multi-variable Granger causality test to construct a directed network of interest rates.
result Short-term interest rates have larger influences on key interest rates, while repo rates are the benchmark.
The paper proposes a new method to estimate interest rates consistently under both risk-neutral and real-world measures.
problem Consistent estimation of interest rates under both risk-neutral and real-world measures.
method Proposes a framework using progressive and square-integrable functions to specify the change of measure, and introduces two time-dependent candidates: step and linear functions.
result The proposed methods produce more stable and realistic long-term interest rate forecasts compared to using a constant function.
Proposes a bond portfolio solution for managing interest rate risk.
problem Managing long-term assets and liabilities under interest rate risk.
method Proposes a bond portfolio solution based on ambiguity-averse preferences, accommodating various constraints and interest rate perturbations.
result Optimal portfolio can be computed as a simple generalized least squares problem, enhancing out-of-sample performance.
Pricing extremely long-dated liabilities market consistently deals with the decline in liquidity of financial instruments on long maturities. The aim is to quantify the uncertainty of rates up to maturities of a century. We assume that the interest rates follow the affine mean-reverting Vasicek model. We model paramete…
Paper proposes methods for pricing FX-linked Bermudan options using quantization.
problem Pricing of foreign exchange (FX) linked long-term Bermudan options.
method Two numerical solution methods based on Product Optimal Quantization.
result Estimation of L2-error and illustration with market examples. Paper presents a new model for derivatives pricing using zero-coupon rates.
problem Exact volatility calibration of swaption matrices and structured products pricing.
method Model uses a dual-term structure with long-term zero-coupon rates driven by Brownian motion.
result Numerical scheme developed for model implementation and examples provided.
In this paper, we assume an insure is allowed to purchase proportional reinsurance and can invest his or her wealth into the financial market where a savings account, stocks and bonds are available. Different from classical optimal investment and reinsurance problem, this paper studies the insurer's long-term investmen…
The study identifies features making cross-impact relevant in explaining price variance of US assets.
problem Understanding the relevance of cross-impact in explaining price variance of US assets.
method Using tick-by-tick data spanning 5 years for 500 US assets, the study investigates the features making cross-impact relevant.
result Price formation is endogenous within highly liquid assets, influencing less liquid correlated products with a constrained impact velocity.
The study analyzes macroeconomic factors affecting copper futures volatility and long-term correlation with S&P 500.
problem Understanding the impact of macroeconomic variables on copper futures volatility and long-term correlation.
method Employed GARCH-MIDAS and DCC-MIDAS modeling frameworks to examine the influence of low-frequency macroeconomic variables on copper futures returns and long-term correlation with S&P 500.
result PPI is the most efficient macroeconomic variable impacting copper futures returns, and MIDAS filter improves model fitness and long-run relationship.
We present an arbitrage-free non-parametric yield curve prediction model which takes the full (discretized) yield curve as state variable. We believe that absence of arbitrage is an important model feature in case of highly correlated data, as it is the case for interest rates. Furthermore, the model structure allows t…
Study analyzes cointegration in US, Canadian, and Mexican bond markets.
problem Identify long-term common factors driving government bond interest rates.
method Used vector autoregression (VAR) and error correction models to analyze cointegration.
result Found long-term common factors influencing US, Canadian, and Mexican bond markets.
This paper examines how taxation and stochastic interest rates affect GMWB Variable Annuities.
problem Improving the financial cost and withdrawal dynamics of GMWB Variable Annuities.
method Developed a numerical framework to compute fair value of GMWB contracts, accounting for taxation and stochastic interest rates.
result Accounting for both taxation and stochastic interest rate significantly impacts GMWB withdrawal strategy and cost.
Model shows how discount rates affect intergenerational equity in climate mitigation.
problem Intergenerational equity in climate mitigation decisions.
method Extended DICE model with stochastic discount rates and financing extensions.
result Discount-rate uncertainty amplifies intergenerational inequality in climate mitigation.
The Dybvig-Ingersoll-Ross (DIR) theorem states that, in arbitrage-free term structure models, long-term yields and forward rates can never fall. We present a refined version of the DIR theorem, where we identify the reciprocal of the maturity date as the maximal order that long-term rates at earlier dates can dominate …
Marxism's rate of profit thesis rejected as illogical.
problem Marxism's rate of profit thesis is challenged as illogical.
method Rejects Marx's thesis on the long-term tendency of the rate of profit to fall.
result Marxism's rate of profit thesis is rejected as illogical.
During the last two years, Europe has been facing a debt crisis, and Greece has been at its center. In response to the crisis, drastic actions have been taken, including the halving of Greek debt. Policy makers acted because interest rates for sovereign debt increased dramatically. High interest rates imply that defaul…
Statistical test verifies long-term rating system calibration with overlapping time windows.
problem Verifying supervisory requirements for overlapping time windows in rating systems.
method Analyzes long-run default rate distribution and correlation effects; presents conservative calibration test methods.
result Developed a test for individual and portfolio levels that can handle unknown variance.
Algorithm learns linear systems from partial observations with near-optimal rate.
problem Identifying linear dynamical systems from partial observations, especially those with long-term memory.
method Multi-scale low-rank approximation using SVD on Hankel matrices of increasing sizes, combined with Fourier domain concentration bounds.
result Near-optimal rate of $\widetilde O\left(\sqrt\frac{d}{T}
ight)$ in H2 error, with logarithmic dependence on memory length. Study shows how margin loan interest rates converge to a choke price, limiting long-term advantage in the broker call money market.
problem Long-term dynamics of margin loan interest rates and their impact on retail clients' advantage in the broker call money market.
method Analyzes the broker call money market dynamics, assuming perfect inelastic supply and continuous reinvestment, to show convergence of relative size and margin loan interest rates.
result Margin loan interest rates converge to a choke price, limiting the long-term advantage of retail clients over the market.
Proves existence of long bond, long forward measure, and long-term factorization in HJM models.
problem Existence of long bond, long forward measure, and long-term factorization in HJM models.
method Function space framework of Filipovic (2001) and sufficient condition on the weight in the Hilbert space of forward rate volatility curves.
result Existence of long bond volatility process, long bond process, and long-term factorization of SDF.
For a stochastic factor model we maximize the long-term growth rate of robust expected power utility with parameter λ∈(0,1). Using duality methods the problem is reformulated as an infinite time horizon, risk-sensitive control problem. Our results characterize the optimal growth rate, an optimal long-term trading s…
The paper factors long-term affine pricing kernels into two components.
problem Understanding long-term behavior of affine pricing kernels.
method Long-term factorization into discounting rate and martingale component.
result Explicit identification of long bond volatility and martingale component volatility.
Credibility theory provides tools to obtain better estimates by combining individual data with sample information. We apply the Credibility theory to a Uniform distribution that is used in testing the reliability of forecasting an interest rate for long term horizons. Such empirical exercise is asked by Regulators (CRR…
Insurance companies often include very long-term guarantees in participating life insurance products, which can turn out to be very valuable. Under a guaranteed annuity options (G.A.O), the insurer guarantees to convert a policyholder's accumulated funds to a life annuity at a fixed rated when the policy matures. Both …
Bayesian approach improves Nelson-Siegel yield curve modeling.
problem Yield curve modeling in finance.
method Hierarchical Bayesian model with MAP estimates via BFGS algorithm and HMC.
result Strong negative correlation between bond price and long-term yield effect, weak positive correlation between short-term rate effect and bond value.
TMLE improves IPM estimation for ecological population dynamics.
problem Estimating key demographic properties from IPM data.
method Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) for IPMs.
result Robust and efficient estimators for IPM properties.
FIRE PBT improves neural network training by focusing on long-term performance.
problem Greedy decision mechanisms in PBT lead to poor long-term performance.
method FIRE PBT uses a fitness metric to encourage long-term performance over short-term improvements.
result FIRE PBT outperforms PBT on ImageNet and matches hand-tuned learning rates.
Kernel method estimates long-term effects from short-term data.
problem Estimating long-term effects from short-term data in continuous actions.
method Kernel ridge regression to embed and extrapolate long-term effects.
result Uniform consistency and nonasymptotic error bounds for the estimator.
Nostalgic Adam improves long-term memory in adaptive learning rate algorithms.
problem Lack of long-term memory in Adam-like algorithms can lead to performance issues and divergence.
method Proposes Nostalgic Adam (NosAdam), which weights more past gradients, theoretically ensuring convergence.
result NosAdam can be a fix for Adam's non-convergence issues and is a promising alternative.
Proposes a graph neural network for personalized news recommendation.
problem Data sparsity in news recommendation systems.
method Heterogeneous graph model + Graph Neural Networks + LSTM attention mechanism.
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods on news recommendation datasets.
The purpose of this paper relies on the study of long term affine yield curves modeling. It is inspired by the Ramsey rule of the economic literature, that links discount rate and marginal utility of aggregate optimal consumption. For such a long maturity modelization, the possibility of adjusting preferences to new ec…
MRIF models dynamic user interests at multiple temporal-ranges.
problem Capturing dynamic and multi-resolution user interests in recommendation.
method Multi-resolution Interest Fusion (MRIF) model that considers both temporal-ranges and drifts in user interests.
result MRIF outperforms state-of-the-art recommendation methods consistently.
We develop the HJM framework for forward rates driven by affine processes on the state space of symmetric positive matrices. In this setting we find a representation for the long-term yield and investigate the yield's asymptotic behaviour.