Machine learning predicts long-term stock price movement with high accuracy.
problem Difficulty in evaluating long-term stock value due to many financial indicators.
method Machine learning approach to predict stock price movement over one year.
result Correctly predicted stock value increase/decrease in 76.5% of cases.
Study examines factors influencing tail risk premia for long-term equity investors.
problem Determining factors affecting variance and higher-moment risk premia in equity markets.
method Empirical study using discretisation invariant swaps for log returns, focusing on skewness, kurtosis, and variance risk premia.
result Momentum is the dominant driver for skewness and kurtosis risk premia, while variance risk premium is influenced by size and growth.
Equity activity is an essential topic for financial market studies. To explore its statistical regularities, we comprehensively examine the trading value, a measure of the equity activity, of the 3314 most-traded stocks in the U.S. equity market and find that (i) the trading values follow a log-normal distribution; (ii…
Study uses deep learning for efficient hedging of long-term financial derivatives.
problem Optimizing hedging strategies for long-term financial derivatives with various penalties and stylized facts.
method Deep reinforcement learning applied to neural networks optimizing hedging policies with quadratic and non-quadratic penalties.
result Non-quadratic global hedging policies result in significantly smaller downside risk metrics and significant hedging gains.
Paper proposes a new method for valuing long-term annuities using real-world probability measure.
problem Valuation of long-term annuities using classical no-arbitrage methods.
method Real-world probability measure valuation, employing numéraire portfolio.
result Real-world valuation leads to lower values than classical approaches.
Study compares LSTM models with sentiment analysis for stock price prediction.
problem Efficient stock price prediction models using LSTM with sentiment analysis.
method Various types of LSTM models combined with sentiment analysis.
result Identifies the most effective model for short and long-term stock price prediction.
Investors benefit from long horizons in a market with mean-reverting equity returns.
problem Optimal portfolio choice in a market with mean-reverting risk-free rate and equity risk-premium.
method Mean-variance optimization, Euler-Lagrange equation, Calculus of Variations, spectral problem.
result Optimal policies are characterized by eigenvalues of the lambda-matrix, leading to better risk-return trade-offs for long-term investors.
Intertrade duration of equities is an important financial measure characterizing the trading activities, which is defined as the waiting time between successive trades of an equity. Using the ultrahigh-frequency data of a liquid Chinese stock and its associated warrant, we perform a comparative investigation of the sta…
Model shows how discount rates affect intergenerational equity in climate mitigation.
problem Intergenerational equity in climate mitigation decisions.
method Extended DICE model with stochastic discount rates and financing extensions.
result Discount-rate uncertainty amplifies intergenerational inequality in climate mitigation.
Improved Sharpe Ratio and reduced volatility through optimized portfolio construction.
problem Underestimation of portfolio construction in equity market neutral strategies.
method Optimized portfolio construction algorithm for the classical momentum strategy.
result Significant improvement in Sharpe Ratio and other strategy features.
The paper optimizes financial derivatives for market completion in SV models.
problem Optimizing financial derivatives for market completion in stochastic volatility models.
method Simulation-based method to approximate optimal portfolio strategy, using double optimization approach (utility maximization and risk exposure minimization).
result Strangle options are the best choices for market completion in equity options.
The study evaluates how prediction helps identify the worst-off in welfare programs.
problem Identifying the most vulnerable individuals for support.
method Mathematical models and real-world case study on long-term unemployment.
result Prediction is more effective than other policy levers in surfacing the worst-off.
The paper develops a valuation framework for GLWB-LTC contracts with Levy dynamics and stochastic interest rates.
problem Valuation of GLWB-LTC contracts with financial guarantees, longevity protection, and health-contingent LTC payments.
method Coupling a recombining Hull-White trinomial tree with an IMEX finite difference scheme, incorporating a seven-state health model.
result Hybrid tree-IMEX method delivers stable long-maturity prices consistent with simulation benchmarks.
Size effect persists in equity markets, with CMH portfolios less correlated to Low-Vol anomaly.
problem The persistence and significance of the size effect in equity markets.
method Analysis of dollar-turnover, β-neutralisation, and Low-Vol neutralisation. result Size-based portfolios are less anti-correlated to Low-Vol anomaly compared to market-cap based SMB.
Enhanced Momentum Transformer outperforms traditional trading strategies.
problem Improving trading performance in equities with evolving market conditions.
method Building a Momentum Transformer using an attention mechanism combined with LSTM, capturing long-term dependencies and transaction costs.
result Average returns of 4.14% and Sharpe ratio of 1.12, similar to original results but with higher volatility.
Although portfolio management didn't change much during the 40 years after the seminal works of Markowitz and Sharpe, the development of risk budgeting techniques marked an important milestone in the deepening of the relationship between risk and asset management. Risk parity then became a popular financial model of in…
Causal models help ensure fairness in systems with changing environments.
problem Ensuring fairness in systems with dynamic, long-term effects.
method Causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to model fairness and manipulate causal assumptions.
result Causal assumptions enable simulation and off-policy estimation of interventions.
Cross-border equity and long-term debt securities portfolio investment networks are analysed from 2002 to 2012, covering the 2008 global financial crisis. They serve as network-proxies for measuring the robustness of the global financial system and the interdependence of financial markets, respectively. Two early-warni…
Study finds ESG investments more resilient than traditional equity indices during market turmoil.
problem Resilience of ESG investments during financial instability.
method Daily returns analysis using MGND and EGARCH-in-mean models.
result ESG investments show higher resilience compared to traditional equity indices during crises.
Develops a unified framework for valuing insurance products with guarantees.
problem Valuing insurance products with guarantees in an affine setting.
method General affine approach to model financial markets, mortality, and policyholder behavior.
result Explicit valuation formulas for variable annuities and related contracts derived.
We study a mean-field version of rank-based models of equity markets such as the Atlas model introduced by Fernholz in the framework of Stochastic Portfolio Theory. We obtain an asymptotic description of the market when the number of companies grows to infinity. Then, we discuss the long-term capital distribution. We r…
The paper discusses decades of stock market manipulation and its benefits.
problem Manipulating public equity markets over 30 years.
method Quantitative analysis of market impact and price movement.
result Price manipulation is a valuable and profitable tool.
Study analyzes Nifty 50 returns over 34 years, showing P/E ratio predicts long-term gains.
problem Understanding equity return dynamics in the Indian market over various horizons.
method Unified, distribution-aware, complexity-informed framework using 34 years of Nifty 50 data.
result P/E ratio probabilistically maps return distributions across different investment horizons.
Study examines impact of capital structure on Indian auto companies' profitability.
problem Understanding the impact of capital structure on profitability of Indian auto companies.
method Used fixed and random effect models with 10 years of data from 17 companies.
result Optimal capital structure improves company performance and maintains capital adequacy.
We analyse a multiplex of networks between OECD countries during the decade 2002-2010, which consists of five financial layers, given by foreign direct investment, equity securities, short-term, long-term and total debt securities, and five environmental layers, given by emissions of N O x, P M 10 SO 2, CO 2 equivalent…
This study examines how investor sentiment's predictive power varies with stock characteristics over different time horizons.
problem Investor sentiment's predictive effect on stock returns varies with stock characteristics and time horizon.
method Granger causality analysis in the frequency domain.
result Investor sentiment has varying predictability lengths (short vs. long) for different stock characteristics.
Adaptive portfolio outperforms static alternatives by 120% over 5 years.
problem Achieving strong and stable long-term performance in diversified portfolios.
method RL-BHRP: A two-level, learning-based approach that adjusts sector and stock exposures dynamically.
result Adaptive portfolio outperforms static alternatives by 120% over 5 years.
AI investors signal higher debt in ESG firms, boosting portfolio management.
problem Determining the value of ESG investing amid AI investment trends.
method Cross-sectional regressions of ESG scores and debt ratios of S&P 500 firms.
result ESG scores signal higher debt in firms, supporting ESG investing.
A financial market is called "diverse" if no single stock is ever allowed to dominate the entire market in terms of relative capitalization. In the context of the standard Ito-process model initiated by Samuelson (1965) we formulate this property (and the allied, successively weaker notions of "weak diversity" and "asy…
PEARL uses AI to replicate private equity performance with liquid assets.
problem Lack of access to private equity due to high costs and complexity.
method Combines AI with liquid assets, incorporating asymmetry for better performance.
result Model outperforms liquid proxies and aligns with private equity benchmarks.
Examines US equity risk premiums amid COVID-19.
problem Analyzing equity risk premiums during the pandemic.
method Not specified in the abstract.
result Not specified in the abstract.
Examines three methods to estimate equity risk premium.
problem Estimating the equity risk premium in finance.
method Survey-based, historical stock premia, and Implied Equity Risk Premium.
result Shows results of estimating ERP using Implied Equity Risk Premium method.
Paper values equity warrants using uncertain calculus.
problem Valuing equity warrants in uncertain financial markets.
method Used uncertain calculus to solve equity warrants pricing problem.
result Equation for equity warrants pricing derived for uncertain stock model.
The paper analyzes bank decisions in a three-step model, focusing on equity and debt raising.
problem Bank decision-making in a three-time-step model with equity and debt raising.
method Theoretical analysis of raising new equity and debt, considering capital requirements and equity holders constraints.
result Raising equity and debt can increase or decrease return on equity, depending on specific cases.
Study finds no significant impact of US sovereign credit rating downgrade on equity market.
problem Impact of US sovereign credit rating downgrade on US equity market.
method Event study methodology using three companies and S&P500 index.
result No significant effects of US sovereign credit rating downgrade on US equity market.
Study on diversifying equity portfolios during financial crises and stability.
problem Determining the effectiveness of diversification strategies during financial crises and stability.
method Analysis of 20 years of US stock price data, including GFC and COVID-19 crashes, using eigenvalues, graph-theoretic diagnostics, and hierarchical clustering.
result During financial crises, diversification via sector-based portfolios is ineffective, while during stability, 30-40 stocks provide sufficient diversification.
The paper extends Merton model to price equity warrants under subdiffusive fractional Brownian motion of the short rate.
problem Equity warrant pricing under subdiffusive fractional Brownian motion of the short rate.
method The paper applies subdiffusive mechanism to analyze equity warrant in a fractional Brownian motion environment, deriving a pricing formula for equity warrant.
result The paper provides a pricing formula for equity warrants under subdiffusive fractional Brownian motion model of the short rate.
The paper shows how cross-ownership increases equity correlations during financial crises.
problem Understanding and explaining rising correlations in financial markets during crises.
method Examined interlinkages among firms through a financial network, mathematically relating equity correlations to asset correlations and network sensitivity.
result Equity correlations are higher than asset correlations, and this relationship is independent of the equities level.
Applicability of the concept of financial log-periodicity is discussed and encouragingly verified for various phases of the world stock markets development in the period 2000-2010. In particular, a speculative forecasting scenario designed in the end of 2004, that properly predicted the world stock market increases in …
New model values equity-linked securities with guaranteed return.
problem Valuation of equity-linked securities with guaranteed return.
method Replicate security price as sum of guaranteed amount and Asian style option price on basket.
result Analytical formulas derived for security price and hedge ratios.
The paper assesses how equity tail risk impacts US Treasury bond returns.
problem The effects of equity tail risk on the US government bond market.
method Estimating equity tail risk using option-implied stock market volatility and assessing its predictive power in reduced-form regressions and a term structure model.
result Equity tail risk significantly predicts one-month excess returns on Treasuries.
Study macroscopic equity market properties affecting active strategies.
problem Lack of adequate models for active equity strategies.
method Empirical study using CRSP Database, focusing on market capitalizations and returns.
result Highlight stylized facts and open questions in equity markets.
New model explains stock market dynamics using market size.
problem Modeling stock market dynamics considering market size.
method Developed a system of stochastic differential equations incorporating market size, fit using data from Kenneth French's library.
result Model accurately reproduces observed linearity of capital distribution curve.
The paper analyzes global inflation's systemic nature and its impact on equity markets.
problem Understanding the systemic nature of global inflation and its financial market implications.
method Data-driven study using eigenvalue analysis, inner-product optimization, and time-varying portfolio optimization.
result Countries with high centrality in global inflation are identified, and the robustness of equity indices and sectors during inflationary periods are explored.
Study shows similarities and differences in crypto and equity dynamics during pandemic.
problem Comparing cryptocurrency and equity market dynamics during the pandemic.
method New methodologies applied to study cryptocurrency and equity market dynamics, including recently introduced methods for trajectory and anomaly analysis.
result Cryptocurrencies exhibit stronger collective dynamics and correlation, while equities show greater persistence in anomalies over time.
The paper explains the equity premium without probabilistic assumptions.
problem Understanding the equity premium and CAPM without probabilistic assumptions.
method Develops game-theoretic probability in continuous-time financial markets.
result Derives a simple expression for the equity premium and a version of CAPM.
Study shows activist board representation improves Japanese companies' performance.
problem Lack of innovation and improvement in Japanese companies.
method Examined two Japanese companies with activist board representation, analyzing performance metrics.
result Companies with activist board representation experienced significant improvements in stock returns and operational metrics.
New framework replicates private equity performance using AI and liquid strategies.
problem Inadequate trust and transparency in private equity markets.
method Advanced graphical models and asymmetric risk adjustments.
result Liquid, scalable solution that closely mimics private equity performance.