A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A new ML method predicts long-time-step molecular dynamics, preserving symplectic and time-reversible properties.
State-of-the-art forecasting methods using Recurrent Neural Net- works (RNN) based on Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) cells have shown exceptional performance targeting short-horizon forecasts, e.g given a set of predictor features, forecast a target value for the next few time steps in the future. However, in many appli…
New approach shapes error distribution in long-term forecasting.
We propose a deep generative Markov State Model (DeepGenMSM) learning framework for inference of metastable dynamical systems and prediction of trajectories. After unsupervised training on time series data, the model contains (i) a probabilistic encoder that maps from high-dimensional configuration space to a small-siz…
Intrusion detection for computer network systems has been becoming one of the most critical tasks for network administrators today. It has an important role for organizations, governments and our society due to the valuable resources hosted on computer networks. Traditional misuse detection strategies are unable to det…
Long short-term memory (LSTM) is normally used in recurrent neural network (RNN) as basic recurrent unit. However,conventional LSTM assumes that the state at current time step depends on previous time step. This assumption constraints the time dependency modeling capability. In this study, we propose a new variation of…
A new framework for pricing the European currency option is developed in the case where the spot exchange rate fellows a time-changed fractional Brownian motion. An analytic formula for pricing European foreign currency option is proposed by a mean self-financing delta-hedging argument in a discrete time setting. The m…
Forecasting multivariate time series data, such as prediction of electricity consumption, solar power production, and polyphonic piano pieces, has numerous valuable applications. However, complex and non-linear interdependencies between time steps and series complicate the task. To obtain accurate prediction, it is cru…
Paper assesses GMMB in VAs using FST for accurate net liability calculations.
A new method simulates square-root processes efficiently.
Framework for deferring decisions to experts in sequential medical settings.
A major drawback of backpropagation through time (BPTT) is the difficulty of learning long-term dependencies, coming from having to propagate credit information backwards through every single step of the forward computation. This makes BPTT both computationally impractical and biologically implausible. For this reason,…
Although RNNs have been shown to be powerful tools for processing sequential data, finding architectures or optimization strategies that allow them to model very long term dependencies is still an active area of research. In this work, we carefully analyze two synthetic datasets originally outlined in (Hochreiter and S…
Note on instabilities in super-time-stepping methods for Heston model.
This paper addresses the question of identifying the time-window in short-term past from which the information regarding the future occupant's window opening actions and resulting window states in buildings can be predicted. The addressed sequence duration was in the range between 30 and 240 time-steps of indoor climat…
Paper proposes deep learning for operators in semigroups, improving dynamical system modeling.
Intelligent Momentum Transformer outperforms traditional trading strategies.
BoostMD accelerates molecular dynamics simulations by 8x with ML force fields.
Transformer learns long-term dependencies from real-world data.
Vanishing long-term gradients are a major issue in training standard recurrent neural networks (RNNs), which can be alleviated by long short-term memory (LSTM) models with memory cells. However, the extra parameters associated with the memory cells mean an LSTM layer has four times as many parameters as an RNN with the…
LatentTrack generates model parameters online for nonstationary data.
For the prediction with experts' advice setting, we construct forecasting algorithms that suffer loss not much more than any expert in the pool. In contrast to the standard approach, we investigate the case of long-term forecasting of time series and consider two scenarios. In the first one, at each step the learne…
Study uses neural networks to predict travel times for public transportation.
Machine learning predicts dam-break flood wave behavior accurately.
The Nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) model, which predicts the current value of a time series based upon its previous values as well as the current and past values of multiple driving (exogenous) series, has been studied for decades. Despite the fact that various NARX models have been developed, few of them ca…
Compositional diffusion models simulate coupled PDEs efficiently.
RTRL optimizes long sequences without truncation, converging to loss minima.
Deep learning has achieved impressive prediction performance in the field of sequence learning recently. Dissolved oxygen prediction, as a kind of time-series forecasting, is suitable for this technique. Although many researchers have developed hybrid models or variant models based on deep learning techniques, there is…
Deep learning accelerates Monte Carlo SDE simulations with large time steps.
ISALT uses inference to simulate SDEs with large time-steps, improving efficiency.
Enhanced Momentum Transformer outperforms traditional trading strategies.
Learning long-term dependencies in extended temporal sequences requires credit assignment to events far back in the past. The most common method for training recurrent neural networks, back-propagation through time (BPTT), requires credit information to be propagated backwards through every single step of the forward c…
Paper uses LSTM to predict inflation, finds it performs well over long periods.
MD-GAN learns long-time molecular behavior from short-time data with multi-particle input.
We consider the exploration/exploitation problem in reinforcement learning. For exploitation, it is well known that the Bellman equation connects the value at any time-step to the expected value at subsequent time-steps. In this paper we consider a similar \textit{uncertainty} Bellman equation (UBE), which connects the…
Improved privacy for heavy-hitters detection.
Time series prediction with deep learning methods, especially long short-term memory neural networks (LSTMs), have scored significant achievements in recent years. Despite the fact that the LSTMs can help to capture long-term dependencies, its ability to pay different degree of attention on sub-window feature within mu…
A new algorithm detects changes in high-dimensional data efficiently under sampling constraints.
We study consumption behaviour in systems with heterogeneous interacting agents. Two different models are introduced, respectively with long and short range interactions among agents. At any time step an agent decides whether or not to consume a good, doing so if this provides positive utility. Utility is affected by i…
This review tackles long horizon forecasting in time series analysis using deep learning.
In this paper, we present an online adaptive PCA algorithm that is able to compute the full dimensional eigenspace per new time-step of sequential data. The algorithm is based on a one-step update rule that considers all second order correlations between previous samples and the new time-step. Our algorithm has O(n) co…
The correspondence between residual networks and dynamical systems motivates researchers to unravel the physics of ResNets with well-developed tools in numeral methods of ODE systems. The Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg method is an adaptive time stepping that renders a good trade-off between the stability and efficiency. Can we …
Modeling physiological time-series in ICU is of high clinical importance. However, data collected within ICU are irregular in time and often contain missing measurements. Since absence of a measure would signify its lack of importance, the missingness is indeed informative and might reflect the decision making by the c…
New method reduces PDE surrogate model training costs by selectively acquiring time steps.
The study improves Monte Carlo simulations for long-term investments using advanced financial models.
Neural Physicist learns physical dynamics from images.
EuSN uses Euler discretization for stable, non-dissipative reservoir computing.
In this introductory paper, we discuss how quantitative finance problems under some common risk factor dynamics for some common instruments and approaches can be formulated as time-continuous or time-discrete forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDE) final-value or control problems, how these final val…