New RNN model handles long-term dependencies in irregularly-sampled time series.
problem Handling long-term dependencies in irregularly-sampled time series data.
method Designing ODE-LSTMs that separate memory from continuous-time state.
result ODE-LSTMs outperform other RNN-based models on non-uniformly sampled data with long-term dependencies.
Introduces Spectral Attention for better long-range time series forecasting.
problem Challenges in capturing long-range dependencies in time series forecasting.
method Spectral Attention mechanism that preserves temporal correlations and long-range dependencies.
result Achieves state-of-the-art results on 11 real-world time series datasets.
New method for long-term sampling of complex dynamics on curved spaces.
problem Sampling ergodic dynamics on Riemannian manifolds efficiently over long periods.
method Intrinsic geometric operations for sampling invariant measure without embeddings.
result Outperforms previous methods in long-term sampling efficiency.
Paper organizes sampling methods for generative modeling.
problem Challenges in sampling with diffusion models.
method Reviews and organizes existing sampling methods.
result Reveals links between methods to overcome challenges.
MPPN network improves long-term time series forecasting accuracy.
problem Inaccurate long-term time series forecasting due to noise and lack of interpretability.
method MPPN network constructs context-aware multi-resolution semantic units and employs multi-periodic pattern mining and channel adaptive module.
result MPPN significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods on nine real-world benchmarks.
DMIDAS improves long-term forecasting accuracy in healthcare and electricity data.
problem Challenging long-term forecasting accuracy and computational complexity.
method Smoothness regularization and mixed data sampling techniques integrated into NBEATS architecture.
result Improves prediction accuracy by 5% on long forecasting horizons (1000 timestamps) compared to state-of-the-art models.
HMC improves Gaussian sampling efficiency with long, random steps.
problem Efficiently sampling from high-dimensional Gaussian distributions.
method Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with long and random integration times.
result HMC achieves ε \varepsilon ε -closeness in total variation distance with O ~ ( κ d 1 / 4 log ( 1 / ε ) ) \widetilde{O}(\sqrt{\kappa} d^{1/4} \log(1/\varepsilon)) O ( κ d 1/4 log ( 1/ ε )) gradient queries. Skeinformer accelerates self-attention for long sequences with linear complexity.
problem Efficiency of Transformer models in processing long sequences.
method Matrix sketching and column sampling to reduce quadratic complexity to linear.
result Skeinformer outperforms alternatives with smaller time/space footprint.
Rough Transformers improve efficiency for medical time-series data.
problem Efficiently modeling irregularly sampled, long-range time-series data.
method Introducing Rough Transformers, a Transformer variant with continuous-time representations and multi-view signature attention.
result Rough Transformers outperform vanilla Transformers while using less computational resources.
Deep Bayesian models estimate causal effects for dynamic treatment regimes over long follow-up times.
problem Challenges in causal effect estimation for dynamic treatment regimes with long follow-up times.
method Combining outcome regression models with deep Bayesian models for high-dimensional features.
result Stable and accurate dynamic causal effect estimation from observational data, especially with long-term follow-up.
The paper tackles long-context linear system identification with improved sample complexity bounds.
problem Identifying dynamical systems with long dependencies over fixed context windows.
method Established sample complexity bounds for systems with linear dependencies over a context window of length p.
result The learning process is not hindered by slow mixing properties in extended context windows.
Polynomial-time methods count and sample DAGs from equivalence classes.
problem Counting and sampling DAGs from Markov equivalence classes.
method Polynomial-time algorithms for DAGs.
result Counting and sampling can be done in polynomial time.
Improved NODEs for long-term time series forecasting.
problem Dealing with complex, multi-frequency data.
method Progressive learning paradigm with curriculum learning.
result Performance improved by over 64%.
fSDE-Net generates time series with long-term memory using neural networks.
problem Generating time series with long-term memory from irregularly sampled data.
method fSDE-Net: neural fractional Stochastic Differential Equation Network using fractional Brownian motion.
result fSDE-Net can replicate distributional properties of real time-series data.
FPG uses fractional calculus for efficient reinforcement learning with long-term memory.
problem High variance and inefficient sampling in standard policy gradient methods for long-term temporal modeling.
method Fractional Policy Gradients (FPG) incorporating Caputo fractional derivatives for power-law temporal correlations.
result Achieves asymptotic variance reduction of order O(t^(-alpha)) and sample efficiency gains.
Hybrid method improves sampling from multimodal distributions.
problem Sampling from multimodal posterior distributions efficiently.
method Jump-Diffusion Langevin Dynamics hybrid with Metropolis.
result Calibrated hybrid method outperforms pure methods.
Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulation is widely used to analyze the properties of molecules and materials. Most practical applications, such as comparison with experimental measurements, designing drug molecules, or optimizing materials, rely on statistical quantities, which may be prohibitively expensive to compute from …
We propose a deep generative Markov State Model (DeepGenMSM) learning framework for inference of metastable dynamical systems and prediction of trajectories. After unsupervised training on time series data, the model contains (i) a probabilistic encoder that maps from high-dimensional configuration space to a small-siz…
Bayesian model predicts interest rates with short-term accuracy and long-term stability.
problem Improving short- and long-term prediction of time series with temporary non-stationary behavior.
method Time-varying autoregressive model with Bayesian regularization and MCMC inference.
result Model outperforms existing methods in both short and long-term predictions.
Max entropy exploration guides reinforcement learning agents to pursue achievable goals.
problem Achieving distant test-time goals in long-horizon tasks.
method Optimize entropy of historical achieved goals by focusing on sparsely explored areas.
result Order of magnitude better sample efficiency on long-horizon multi-goal tasks.
It is generally accepted that many time series of practical interest exhibit strong dependence, i.e., long memory. For such series, the sample autocorrelations decay slowly and log-log periodogram plots indicate a straight-line relationship. This necessitates a class of models for describing such behavior. A popular cl…
Structured state space models improve ECG classification and reveal new insights.
problem Improving ECG analysis through deep learning.
method Applying structured state space models to capture long-term dependencies in ECG data.
result SSMs lead to significant improvements in ECG classification over current state-of-the-art.
W-Transformers use wavelets to improve time series forecasting.
problem Forecasting non-stationary time series with long-range dependencies.
method Wavelet-based transformer architecture.
result W-Transformers outperform baseline models on various time series datasets.
A defining feature of non-stationary systems is the time dependence of their statistical parameters. Measured time series may exhibit Gaussian statistics on short time horizons, due to the central limit theorem. The sample statistics for long time horizons, however, averages over the time-dependent parameters. To model…
Polynomial-time methods count and sample DAGs from Markov classes.
problem Counting and sampling Markov equivalent DAGs.
method Polynomial-time algorithms for DAGs from Markov classes.
result Long-standing open problem solved, making practical infeasible strategies feasible.
Rough Transformers improve time series modeling with lower costs and better performance.
problem Inefficient modeling of irregularly sampled time series data.
method Signature patching for continuous-time representations, reducing computational costs.
result Rough Transformers outperform vanilla Transformers and Neural ODE models.
Regularized SB process speeds up generative modeling.
problem Slow sampling and training times in SB-based models.
method Regularization terms to reduce timesteps and training time.
result Faster sampling speed for generative modeling.
Spectral Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Structured Non-Exchangeable Data
problem Improving prediction intervals for non-exchangeable time-indexed datasets
method Spectral adaptive conformal prediction
result Improves on fixed spectral weighting while monitoring uncertainty changes
LLapDiff models irregular multivariate time series without step-by-step integration.
problem Trade-off between discrete and continuous methods for long-horizon forecasting.
method Generative framework that models target as a low-dimensional latent trajectory, guided by modal parameterization and Laplace domain poles.
result Improves long-horizon forecasting over baselines and supports missing-value imputation.
Nonlinear MCMC improves Bayesian machine learning sampling.
problem Sampling problems in Bayesian machine learning.
method Nonlinear MCMC technique with convergence guarantees.
result Improves sampling in Bayesian neural networks.
Study improves reinforcement learning for stable long-term performance.
problem Distributionally robust average-reward reinforcement learning for stable long-term performance.
method Proposes two algorithms to achieve near-optimal sample complexity.
result Achieves a sample complexity of O ( ∣ S ∣ ∣ A ∣ t m i x 2 ε − 2 ) O(|\mathbf{S}||\mathbf{A}| t_{\mathrm{mix}}^2\varepsilon^{-2}) O ( ∣ S ∣∣ A ∣ t mix 2 ε − 2 ) for estimating optimal policy and robust average reward. A comparison of SLDS and LSTM for pedestrian behavior prediction shows SLDS works better with shorter sequences.
problem Time-critical pedestrian behavior prediction in autonomous vehicles.
method Comparison of a switching linear dynamical system (SLDS) and a three-layered bi-directional LSTM neural network.
result SLDS achieves higher accuracy with shorter sequences (10 samples) compared to LSTM's 80% accuracy with 100 samples.
New algorithms for efficient learning with long-term rewards in contextual bandits.
problem Efficient learning with long-term rewards in contextual bandits.
method Proposes new algorithms leveraging sparsity to discover dependence patterns and arm parameters.
result Regret upper bounds for data-poor and data-rich regimes, showing improved sample complexity.
This paper considers multi-dimensional affine processes with continuous sample paths. By analyzing the Riccati system, which is associated with affine processes via the transform formula, we fully characterize the regions of exponents in which exponential moments of a given process do not explode at any time or explode…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are ubiquitous in probability theory in general and in machine learning in particular. A Markov chain is devised so that its stationary distribution is some probability distribution of interest. Then one samples from the given distribution by running the Markov chain for a "lo…
A new method distills datasets more efficiently and effectively.
problem Achieving competitive performance on test data with a small synthetic dataset.
method Tackles dataset distillation as a bilevel optimization problem, introduces RaT-BPTT to stabilize gradients and speed up optimization.
result Establishes new state-of-the-art performance across various benchmarks.
We give the first algorithm for kernel Nyström approximation that runs in *linear time in the number of training points* and is provably accurate for all kernel matrices, without dependence on regularity or incoherence conditions. The algorithm projects the kernel onto a set of s s s landmark points sampled by their *rid…
We develop deep Poisson-gamma dynamical systems (DPGDS) to model sequentially observed multivariate count data, improving previously proposed models by not only mining deep hierarchical latent structure from the data, but also capturing both first-order and long-range temporal dependencies. Using sophisticated but simp…
MOTS improves Thompson sampling to match minimax bounds for bandit problems.
problem Achieving optimal regret bounds for Thompson sampling in multi-armed bandit problems.
method Proposes MOTS, a variant of Thompson sampling that clips arm sampling.
result Proves MOTS achieves minimax optimal regret bounds O ( K T ) O(\sqrt{KT}) O ( K T ) . The paper examines extreme value statistics of high-dimensional sample covariances, with applications in finance and image analysis.
problem Statistical validation of normal conditions in high-dimensional time series data.
method Generalizes the maximal deviation of sample autocovariances to high dimensions and applies Gumbel-type extreme value asymptotics.
result Gumbel-type extreme value asymptotics holds true for high-dimensional sample covariances.
Despite the eminent successes of deep neural networks, many architectures are often hard to transfer to irregularly-sampled and asynchronous time series that commonly occur in real-world datasets, especially in healthcare applications. This paper proposes a novel approach for classifying irregularly-sampled time series…
The paper shows how training with synthetic data can lead to model improvement, not degradation, under certain conditions.
problem Model collapse in iterative training on contaminated sources.
method Statistical analysis of iterative training on a mixture of true and synthetic data.
result Training with synthetic data can lead to model improvement, not degradation, under specific conditions.
We study the problem of recovering an incomplete m × n m\times n m × n matrix of rank r r r with columns arriving online over time. This is known as the problem of life-long matrix completion, and is widely applied to recommendation system, computer vision, system identification, etc. The challenge is to design provable algorithms…
Research on long-range memory in financial and social systems using various models.
problem Understanding the nature of long-range memory in socioeconomic systems.
method Various Markov processes including point processes, stochastic differential equations, and agent-based models.
result New estimators of self-similarity and long-range memory for non-Gaussian systems are needed.
HOPE improves SSMs for long-memory tasks with robust initialization and training.
problem Improving state-space models for long-memory tasks with robust initialization and training.
method Developed a new parameterization scheme called HOPE using Hankel operators and Markov parameters.
result HOPE improves SSMs' performance on Long-Range Arena tasks and demonstrates non-decaying memory.
Paper fine-tunes a language model to predict long-term stock buy signals.
problem Predicting long-term stock price movements with narrative text.
method Fine-tuning a small language model on 10-K reports for buy/sell decisions.
result Buy signals generated from 10-K text are most precise at 6 and 9 months, providing 4.8-9% improvement over random selection.
New algorithms sample spike-and-slab priors efficiently in high dimensions.
problem Sampling from spike-and-slab priors in high-dimensional settings.
method Provably efficient algorithms for posterior sampling with sublinear measurement count.
result First provable algorithms for spike-and-slab posterior sampling without strong SNR assumptions.
Algorithm improves movie recommendation efficiency with fairness constraints.
problem Improving movie recommendation efficiency with fairness constraints in combinatorial semi-bandits.
method Adopted Thompson Sampling with beta priors and Bernoulli likelihoods to handle fairness constraints.
result Time-averaged regret upper bounded by $\frac{N}{2η} + O\left(\frac{\sqrt{mNT\ln T}}{T}
ight)$ , with fairness constraints satisfied.