A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study optimal strategies for insurer's dividends, investments, and liabilities.
The paper solves a portfolio selection problem in incomplete markets by balancing utility and risk.
We derive new results related to the portfolio choice problem for power and logarithmic utilities. Assuming that the portfolio returns follow an approximate log-normal distribution, the closed-form expressions of the optimal portfolio weights are obtained for both utility functions. Moreover, we prove that both optimal…
LogAnMeta detects anomalies from log events using meta learning.
A key issue in the estimation of energy hedges is the hedgers' attitude towards risk which is encapsulated in the form of the hedgers' utility function. However, the literature typically uses only one form of utility function such as the quadratic when estimating hedges. This paper addresses this issue by estimating an…
We propose a novel and flexible rank-breaking-then-composite-marginal-likelihood (RBCML) framework for learning random utility models (RUMs), which include the Plackett-Luce model. We characterize conditions for the objective function of RBCML to be strictly log-concave by proving that strict log-concavity is preserved…
Investor optimizes wealth in a market with non-traded endowment, deriving expansions up to second order.
The paper examines utility maximization in markets with hidden Gaussian drift, finding restrictions on model parameters.
We analyze a nonlinear equation proposed by F. Black (1968) for the optimal portfolio function in a log-normal model. We cast it in terms of the risk tolerance function and provide, for general utility functions, existence, uniqueness and regularity results, and we also examine various monotonicity, concavity/convexity…
Prompted by a recent experiment by Victor Haghani and Richard Dewey, this note generalises the Kelly strategy (optimal for simple investment games with log utility) to a large class of practical utility functions and including the effect of extraneous wealth. A counterintuitive result is proved : for any continuous, co…
Assuming that agents' preferences satisfy first-order stochastic dominance, we show how the Expected Utility paradigm can rationalize all optimal investment choices: the optimal investment strategy in any behavioral law-invariant (state-independent) setting corresponds to the optimum for an expected utility maximizer w…
Develops deep learning methods for solving S-shaped utility maximisation problems.
This paper focuses on numéraire portfolio and log-optimal portfolio (portfolio with finite expected utility that maximizes the expected logarithm utility from terminal wealth), when a market model -specified by its assets' price and its flow of information - is stopped at a random time $τ…
Differentially private log-location-scale regression models improve privacy in statistical analysis.
Backward exploration reduces sample complexity in policy evaluation.
In this paper we consider a utility maximization problem with defaultable stocks and looping contagion risk. We assume that the default intensity of one company depends on the stock prices of itself and other companies, and the default of the company induces immediate drops in the stock prices of the surviving companie…
Paper proposes a new DR estimator for adaptive experiments with improved performance.
New learning dynamics achieve fast convergence in games without needing to know utility scales.
Decision-alignment evaluates uncertainty quantification for decision-relevant UQ
End-to-end neural network based approaches to audio modelling are generally outperformed by models trained on high-level data representations. In this paper we present preliminary work that shows the feasibility of training the first layers of a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) model to learn the commonly-used l…
New method for inferring time series graph from sparse-group log-sum penalty.
Proposes log density gradient to improve reinforcement learning sample complexity.
The Mutual Fund Theorem (MFT) is considered in a general semimartingale financial market S with a finite time horizon T, where agents maximize expected utility of terminal wealth. It is established that: 1) Let N be the wealth process of the numéraire portfolio (i.e. the optimal portfolio for the log utility). If any p…
To investigate the detection of students' behavioral engagement (On-Task vs. Off-Task), we propose a two-phase approach in this study. In Phase 1, contextual logs (URLs) are utilized to assess active usage of the content platform. If there is active use, the appearance information is utilized in Phase 2 to infer behavi…
We propose a novel method for maximum likelihood-based parameter inference in nonlinear and/or non-Gaussian state space models. The method is an iterative procedure with three steps. At each iteration a particle filter is used to estimate the value of the log-likelihood function at the current parameter iterate. Using …
Two deep learning algorithms solve utility maximisation problems in finance.
Paper tackles policy selection with logged data and limited online interactions.
Acoustic scene classification is the task of identifying the scene from which the audio signal is recorded. Convolutional neural network (CNN) models are widely adopted with proven successes in acoustic scene classification. However, there is little insight on how an audio scene is perceived in CNN, as what have been d…
The paper solves portfolio selection using Rényi divergence and optimization.
Method selects most useful network model for various tasks.
Adaptive sequential decision making is one of the central challenges in machine learning and artificial intelligence. In such problems, the goal is to design an interactive policy that plans for an action to take, from a finite set of actions, given some partial observations. It has been shown that in many applicat…
In this paper, we study adaptive online convex optimization, and aim to design a universal algorithm that achieves optimal regret bounds for multiple common types of loss functions. Existing universal methods are limited in the sense that they are optimal for only a subclass of loss functions. To address this limitatio…
A new RBM model handles both linear and log-amplitude spectrograms.
The paper resolves a counterexample showing convergence of expected utility in binomial models.
In many classification problems it is desirable to output well-calibrated probabilities on the different classes. We propose a robust, non-parametric method of calibrating probabilities called SplineCalib that utilizes smoothing splines to determine a calibration function. We demonstrate how applying certain transforma…
New method quantifies resilience of electric distribution systems from historical data.
We extend the theory of asymmetric information in mispricing models for stocks following geometric Brownian motion to constant relative risk averse investors. Mispricing follows a continuous mean--reverting Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process. Optimal portfolios and maximum expected log--linear utilities from terminal wealth f…
We consider the problem of optimal investment and consumption in a class of multidimensional jump-diffusion models in which asset prices are subject to mutually exciting jump processes. This captures a type of contagion where each downward jump in an asset's price results in increased likelihood of further jumps, both …
Algorithm identifies best item from subsets with random utility model feedback.
This work derives an approximate analytical single period solution of the portfolio choice problem for the power utility function. It is possible to do so if we consider that the asset returns follow a multivariate normal distribution. It is shown in the literature that the log-normal distribution seems to be a good pr…
A new model detects financial bubbles with high accuracy.
Improved VI with Price's gradient estimator for target log-density.
Marketron model extended to option markets, solving incomplete market challenges.
This paper studies the optimal risk-averse timing to sell a risky asset. The investor's risk preference is described by the exponential, power, or log utility. Two stochastic models are considered for the asset price -- the geometric Brownian motion and exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models -- to account for, respectiv…
We present and evaluate Deep Private-Feature Extractor (DPFE), a deep model which is trained and evaluated based on information theoretic constraints. Using the selective exchange of information between a user's device and a service provider, DPFE enables the user to prevent certain sensitive information from being sha…
Solves optimal control for stochastic processes with absorbing states.
In predictive process analytics, current and historical process data in event logs is used to predict the future, e.g., to predict the next activity or how long a process will still require to complete. Recurrent neural networks (RNN) and its subclasses have been demonstrated to be well suited for creating prediction m…
We propose a family of models that enable predictive estimation of time-varying extreme event probabilities in heavy-tailed and nonlinearly dependent time series. The models are a white noise process with conditionally log-Laplace stochastic volatility. In contrast to other, similar stochastic volatility formalisms, th…