Localized inference for large graphs with error bounds.
problem Efficiently answering queries in large graphical models.
method Localized algorithm with error bounds based on Dobrushin's theorem.
result Localized inference provides fast and accurate approximations for large models.
Improved local multivariable regression for better inference with limited data.
problem Limited sample size hampers local polynomial/multivariable regression.
method Prediction-Powered Inference (PPI) algorithm for local multivariable regression.
result Significantly reduces estimation variance without increasing error.
Boosting Variational Inference improves posterior approximations with adaptive step-sizes.
problem Limited resources hinder the widespread adoption of Boosting Variational Inference.
method Characterized global curvature impact, introduced local curvature, and developed an approximate backtracking algorithm.
result New theoretical convergence rates and experimental validation demonstrate improved performance.
Local mass perspective on Bayesian inference
problem Measuring distributional discrepancy in Bayesian inference
method Introducing Mass Index and Regularised Extended KL
result Proving inequalities for comparing local small-ball masses
MD-split+ creates locally valid prediction regions for complex data.
problem Localized prediction regions for complex data.
method Localized model performance-based partitioning of feature space X.
result MD-split+ creates valid prediction regions that scale to high dimensions.
This paper analyzes Local SGD for federated learning, achieving both statistical and communication efficiency.
problem Statistical estimation and inference in federated learning with decentralized data.
method Local SGD, a multi-round estimation procedure using intermittent communication.
result Local SGD achieves both statistical efficiency and communication efficiency.
Delta-AI speeds up inference in sparse PGMs by local credit assignment.
problem Efficient inference in sparse probabilistic graphical models.
method Local credit assignment in agent's policy learning objective.
result Trained sampler recovers marginals and conditional distributions.
A new pricing controller handles resource constraints to infer target prices effectively.
problem Resource constraints prevent fixed-price inference, leading to support exclusion.
method Formalizes support-exclusion failure, designs a target-aware controller, and uses a realized information clock.
result The controller can certify feasible target bands and log continuous local densities, leading to polynomial rates of inference.
This paper speeds up inference in large hierarchical models.
problem Inference in large hierarchical models is slow and difficult.
method Amortized variational inference with shared parameters.
result Amortized inference is as accurate as a full-rank Gaussian but much faster.
Many inference problems in structured prediction are naturally solved by augmenting a tractable dependency structure with complex, non-local auxiliary objectives. This includes the mean field family of variational inference algorithms, soft- or hard-constrained inference using Lagrangian relaxation or linear programmin…
New method for private Bayesian inference in count models.
problem Privacy-preserving inference in count data models.
method Geometric mechanism and Skellam distribution insights.
result Method outperforms naive approach and non-private inference.
Paper proposes a federated learning method for quantile inference with local differential privacy.
problem Federated learning of quantile inference under local differential privacy constraints.
method Local stochastic gradient descent with randomized mechanism for privacy and efficiency.
result Asymptotic normality and functional central limit theorem for the proposed estimator.
Bayesian method calibrates local volatility with Gaussian processes.
problem Calibrating local volatility models is challenging.
method Bayesian inference with Gaussian process priors.
result Rich probabilistic model of local volatility with uncertainty.
Using the theory of group action, we first introduce the concept of the automorphism group of an exponential family or a graphical model, thus formalizing the general notion of symmetry of a probabilistic model. This automorphism group provides a precise mathematical framework for lifted inference in the general expone…
New models infer causal effects from graph-based time-series data.
problem Inferring causal effects from graph-based relational time-series data.
method Proposes causal inference models leveraging graph topology and time-series data.
result Relational time-series causal inference models accurately estimate local causal effects of individual nodes.
A new algorithm combines SVGD with local kernels for efficient inference in continuous graph models.
problem Efficient inference in high-dimensional continuous graphical models.
method Stein variational gradient descent extended with local kernels.
result Local kernels improve approximation and enable distributed inference.
LOAD discovers optimal adjustments locally for scalable causal inference.
problem Scalable causal inference for unknown causal graphs.
method Local Optimal Adjustments Discovery (LOAD) method.
result LOAD combines local and global approaches for efficient and accurate causal effect estimation.
Bayesian deep networks with local competition reduce model complexity without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Inference of deep networks with minimal model complexity.
method Revisits deep networks with local competition, using Bayesian nonparametrics for inference of connections and precision.
result Yields networks with less computational footprint and no accuracy loss.
This paper presents a unified geometric framework for the statistical analysis of a general ill-posed linear inverse model which includes as special cases noisy compressed sensing, sign vector recovery, trace regression, orthogonal matrix estimation, and noisy matrix completion. We propose computationally feasible conv…
Study shows TAP free energy minimization provides better posterior inference in high-dimensional linear models.
problem Deviation from true posterior mean and underestimation of posterior uncertainty in variational inference.
method Minimization of TAP free energy in a high-dimensional asymptotic framework, showing geometric and statistical properties.
result Local minimizer of TAP free energy provides consistent estimate of posterior marginals and correctly calibrated posterior inference.
LSCI provides locally adaptive prediction sets for operator models with tighter coverage.
problem Generating robust, calibrated uncertainty quantification for operator models.
method Local Sliced Conformal Inference (LSCI) for operator models.
result LSCI yields tighter prediction sets with stronger adaptivity compared to conformal baselines.
CP4SBI improves the calibration of credible sets in SBI models.
problem Inaccurate credible sets in SBI models lead to underestimation of true parameters.
method Develops a local conformal calibration framework for SBI models.
result Improves the quality of uncertainty quantification for neural posterior estimators.
Noise-aware Bayesian inference framework for locally private data collection.
problem Privacy-preserving data collection with non-trustworthy aggregators.
method Noise-aware probabilistic modeling framework for Bayesian inference under LDP.
result Demonstrated efficacy in parameter estimation for various distributions and regression models.
A new method for efficient inference in sequential latent-variable models.
problem Computational challenges in integrating subject-specific random effects.
method Anchored variational inference framework to approximate posterior distributions.
result The method achieves accurate estimation with significant computational gains.
ReNN integrates domain rules into neural networks for better interpretability and accuracy.
problem Lack of interpretability and need for large datasets in neural networks.
method ReNN combines local pattern detection with rule-based global synthesis, using a two-stage optimization strategy.
result ReNN improves inference accuracy and interpretability by incorporating domain rules.
This paper offers a distribution-free method for post-detection changepoint localization.
problem Locating the exact time of a change in distribution after a sequential detection procedure.
method A distribution-free framework using conformal test martingales for sequential change detection and post-detection inference.
result Valid post-detection coverage guarantees and non-asymptotic bounds on confidence set size.
We study parameter inference in large-scale latent variable models. We first propose an unified treatment of online inference for latent variable models from a non-canonical exponential family, and draw explicit links between several previously proposed frequentist or Bayesian methods. We then propose a novel inference…
We empirically evaluate a stochastic annealing strategy for Bayesian posterior optimization with variational inference. Variational inference is a deterministic approach to approximate posterior inference in Bayesian models in which a typically non-convex objective function is locally optimized over the parameters of t…
Proposes a graph dynamics prior for more accurate relational inference.
problem Identifying interactions in dynamical systems from observed dynamics.
method Graph Dynamics Prior (GDP) that uses error amplification in non-local polynomial filters.
result Reconstructs graphs more accurately than previous methods, robust to under-sampling.
New perspective on federated learning as posterior inference, improving optimization.
problem Optimizing global models in distributed learning settings.
method Formulated as posterior inference problem, using MCMC for approximate inference and federated averaging for refinement.
result Federated posterior averaging (FedPA) outperforms existing methods on benchmarks.
A statistical test controls false positives in anomaly localization using diffusion models.
problem Uncertainty and bias in generative models for anomaly localization.
method Selective inference to quantify significance and control false positives.
result The method effectively controls false positive detection rates.
Locally learned synaptic failure enables complete Bayesian inference.
problem Bayesian inference in neural networks.
method Biologically constrained neural network with synaptic failure and lateral inhibition.
result Synaptic failure allows sampling from both epistemic and aleatoric distributions.
Semi-amortized approach improves generative models without posterior-collapse.
problem Posterior-collapse in VAEs for tasks like text generation.
method Hybrid approach combining AVI for initialization and SVI for refinement.
result Semi-amortized approach outperforms autoregressive and variational baselines.
Variational inference is a powerful approach for approximate posterior inference. However, it is sensitive to initialization and can be subject to poor local optima. In this paper, we develop proximity variational inference (PVI). PVI is a new method for optimizing the variational objective that constrains subsequent i…
A common divide-and-conquer approach for Bayesian computation with big data is to partition the data, perform local inference for each piece separately, and combine the results to obtain a global posterior approximation. While being conceptually and computationally appealing, this method involves the problematic need t…
Local Linear Forests improve random forests for smooth signals and causal inference.
problem Random forests struggle with smooth signals and poor predictive performance in smooth effects.
method Pairing forest kernel with local linear regression adjustment.
result Improves asymptotic rates of convergence and accuracy on real and simulated data.
New classifier combines locally linear kernels for fast and accurate non-linear classification.
problem Developing a fast and accurate non-linear classifier.
method Combines locally linear classifiers using a ℓ1 Multiple Kernel Learning (MKL) problem with scalable MKL training for streaming kernels. result The resulting classifier achieves high accuracy with fast inference time.
Mixup inference improves adversarial robustness by mixing inputs with clean samples.
problem Adversarial examples can fool deep networks due to local non-linearity.
method Develops mixup inference, which mixes inputs with clean samples to shrink adversarial perturbations.
result Mixup inference enhances adversarial robustness for mixup-trained models.
New method improves inference for hierarchical models.
problem Challenges in inference for large hierarchical models.
method Locally enhanced variational bounds with subsampling.
result Better posterior approximations than baselines.
Extends ESGVI for UWB localization with skewed noise, improving state estimation accuracy.
problem Improving state estimation accuracy in UWB localization with skewed noise.
method Generalizes ESGVI to matrix Lie groups and introduces non-Gaussian factors.
result Improved accuracy in UWB localization with NLOS and multipath effects.
Method for initializing Gaussian mixtures for variational inference with multi-modal distributions.
problem Challenges in variational inference with Gaussian mixtures due to multimodality and nonconvex loss functions.
method Optimization to find local maxima, local Gaussian approximations, and constrained least squares regression.
result Robust initialization improves variational inference performance and scalability.
Enhances sequence labeling with embedded-state latent CRFs.
problem Complex non-local constraints between sequence labels.
method Integrates multiple hidden states with low-rank log-potential scoring matrices.
result Model outperforms baseline CRF+RNN models with global constraints.
AutoBayes simplifies variational inference by composing models and optimizing them.
problem Generalized variational inference complexities and optimization challenges.
method Compositional framework exploiting chain rules for automatic differentiation.
result Optimized models and parameterized statistical games can be locally optimized.
Bayesian Federated Inference combines local data analyses to estimate regression models.
problem Estimating accurate parameters with limited data from different centers.
method Bayesian Federated Inference (BFI) for pooling local data analyses.
result Excellent performance of BFI methodology shown in real-life examples.
Proposes a Bayesian federated learning method for diverse tasks.
problem Current federated learning approaches focus on homogeneous tasks, ignoring task diversity.
method Integrates multi-task learning with MOGP at the local level and federated learning at the global level.
result Demonstrates superior predictive performance and uncertainty calibration on diverse tasks.
This article studies local and global inference for smoothing spline estimation in a unified asymptotic framework. We first introduce a new technical tool called functional Bahadur representation, which significantly generalizes the traditional Bahadur representation in parametric models, that is, Bahadur [Ann. Inst. S…
VCSMC improves efficiency in Bayesian phylogenetic inference.
problem Inefficient exploration of phylogenetic state space.
method Variational Combinatorial Sequential Monte Carlo (VCSMC) and nested CSMC.
result VCSMC and VNCSMC explore higher probability spaces efficiently.
Accelerates pulsar light curve inference with learned representations and optimization.
problem Computational expense of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for posterior inference.
method Combining U-Net latent representations with local simulator-guided optimization.
result 120x reduction in inference time (24 hours to 12 minutes) with accuracy preserved.