A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The study examines how limited liability and haircut affect a bank's loan portfolio's liquidity risk.
Extends ASRF model for green and brown loans, accounting for systematic and idiosyncratic risks.
An integrated and extendable approach for stress-testing loan portfolios
System designs for analyzing and pricing non-performing consumer credit portfolios.
Optimizes loan recovery timing across various portfolios.
Deep neural networks reduce loan portfolio risk.
Limited liability reduces leveraged risk in loan portfolio management models.
Optimizes loan recovery timing by forecasting cash flows.
Deep learning method improves risk assessment for small loan portfolios.
A Markov-chain model is developed for the purpose estimation of the cure rate of non-performing loans. The technique is performed collectively, on portfolios and it can be applicable in the process of calculation of credit impairment. It is efficient in terms of data manipulation costs which makes it accessible even to…
CERM calculates climate risks in bank loans.
We extend the Vasiček loan portfolio model to a setting where liabilities fluctuate randomly and asset values may be subject to systemic jump risk. We derive the probability distribution of the percentage loss of a uniform portfolio and analyze its properties. We find that the impact of liability risk is ambiguous and …
We propose a fast algorithm for computing the economic capital, Value at Risk and Greeks in the Gaussian factor model. The algorithm proposed here is much faster than brute force Monte Carlo simulations or Fourier transform based methods \cite{MD}. While the algorithm of Hull-White \cite{HW} is comparably fast, it assu…
Transfer learning improves loan recovery rate forecasting under data scarcity.
Model assesses loan profitability under changing credit conditions.
This study assesses risk concentration in MDB portfolios using Monte Carlo simulations.
Modeling bank portfolio risk under climate transition impacts.
We propose a fast algorithm for computing the expected tranche loss in the Gaussian factor model. We test it on a 125 name portfolio with a single factor Gaussian model and show that the algorithm gives accurate results. We choose a 125 name portfolio for our tests because this is the size of the standard DJCDX.NA.HY p…
A scenario in which regulators take the drastic step of requiring coverage of all venture bank investment loans using interbank borrowed funds is considered. In this scenario, a minimal amount of default insurance is used, such that Tier 1 and 2 capital requirements are still met. To do this, the default insurance perc…
The paper analyzes bank decisions in a three-step model, focusing on equity and debt raising.
Model improves mortgage credit risk prediction with spatio-temporal machine learning.
In this paper, which is the third installment of the author's trilogy on margin loan pricing, we analyze monthly observations of the U.S. broker call money rate, which is the interest rate at which stock brokers can borrow to fund their margin loans to retail clients. We describe the basic features and mean-rev…
We study a simple, solvable model that allows us to investigate effects of credit contagion on the default probability of individual firms, in both portfolios of firms and on an economy wide scale. While the effect of interactions may be small in typical (most probable) scenarios they are magnified, due to feedback, by…
An investor with constant relative risk aversion and an infinite planning horizon trades a risky and a safe asset with constant investment opportunities, in the presence of small transaction costs and a binding exogenous portfolio constraint. We explicitly derive the optimal trading policy, its welfare, and implied tra…
This paper supplies two possible resolutions of Fortune's (2000) margin-loan pricing puzzle. Fortune (2000) noted that the margin loan interest rates charged by stock brokers are very high in relation to the actual (low) credit risk and the cost of funds. If we live in the Black-Scholes world, the brokers are presumabl…
Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) launched in 1997 the model CreditRisk+ which aims at calculating the loss distribution of a credit portfolio on the basis of a methodology from actuarial mathematics. Knowing the loss distribution, it is possible to determine quantile-based values-at-risk (VaRs) for the portfolio. An o…
This paper compares ML algorithms for PD prediction, finding XGBoost to be the most effective.
Examines climate financing for renewable energy projects using structured funds.
The thesis tackles two stochastic control problems in capital structure and portfolio choice.
Study finds strict collection policies improve portfolio quality of microfinance banks.
A new method detects and removes false trailing balances in credit data.
We propose a fast algorithm for computing the expected tranche loss in the Gaussian factor model. We test it on portfolios ranging in size from 25 (the size of DJ iTraxx Australia) to 100 (the size of DJCDX.NA.HY) with a single factor Gaussian model and show that the algorithm gives accurate results. The algorithm prop…
Proposes a more robust rating scale for banks.
I derive practical formulas for optimal arrangements between sophisticated stock market investors (namely, continuous-time Kelly gamblers or, more generally, CRRA investors) and the brokers who lend them cash for leveraged bets on a high Sharpe asset (i.e. the market portfolio). Rather than, say, the broker posting a m…
The study examines Cox models for lifetime loan default risk, addressing biased estimates by incorporating recurrent events.
Proposes a deep neural network for predicting survival times with cure fractions.
XGBoost predicts bank loan defaults with improved accuracy.
As a consequence of the dependence experienced in loan portfolios, the standard binomial test which is based on the assumption of independence does not appear appropriate for validating probabilities of default (PDs). The model underlying the new rules for minimum capital requirements (Basle II) is taken as a point of …
In this paper we first introduce two new financial products: stock loan and capped stock loan. Then we develop a pure variational inequality method to establish explicitly the values of these stock loans. Finally, we work out ranges of fair values of parameters associated with the loans.
Credit risk stress tests can misrepresent default probabilities due to inconsistent parameterization.
Study uses RL to optimize crypto portfolios with two-sided transactions and lending.
Examines how extending home loan durations affects French households financially.
Two models predict net loan losses using Bayesian and frequentist regression.
Current auto loans converge to super-prime credit despite remaining underwater.
We derive valuations of a portfolio of financial instruments from a securities lending perspective, under different assumptions, and show a weighting scheme that converges to the true valuation. We illustrate conditions under which our alternative weighting scheme converges faster to the true valuation when compared to…
A stock loan is a loan, secured by a stock, which gives the borrower the right to redeem the stock at any time before or on the loan maturity. The way of dividends distribution has a significant effect on the pricing of the stock loan and the optimal redeeming strategy adopted by the borrower. We present the pricing mo…
Paper solves stock loan pricing with finite maturity using integral equations.
Logistic Regression and Support Vector Machine algorithms, together with Linear and Non-Linear Deep Neural Networks, are applied to lending data in order to replicate lender acceptance of loans and predict the likelihood of default of issued loans. A two phase model is proposed; the first phase predicts loan rejection,…