Survey examines machine learning for credit rating predictions.
problem Manual loan approvals are slow and error-prone.
method Examines sentiment analysis techniques in credit rating.
result Machine learning improves credit rating predictions.
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48 results for “loan approvals”
Loan default prediction is one of the most important and critical problems faced by banks and other financial institutions as it has a huge effect on profit. Although many traditional methods exist for mining information about a loan application, most of these methods seem to be under-performing as there have been repo…
Logistic Regression and Support Vector Machine algorithms, together with Linear and Non-Linear Deep Neural Networks, are applied to lending data in order to replicate lender acceptance of loans and predict the likelihood of default of issued loans. A two phase model is proposed; the first phase predicts loan rejection,…
RMT-Net tackles biased credit scoring data by learning from both default/non-default and rejection/approval tasks.
problem Missing-not-at-random selection bias in financial credit scoring data.
method Reject-aware Multi-Task Network (RMT-Net) that leverages the correlation between default/non-default and rejection/approval tasks.
result RMT-Net improves credit scoring models by learning from both default/non-default and rejection/approval tasks.
Financial decisions impact our lives, and thus everyone from the regulator to the consumer is interested in fair, sound, and explainable decisions. There is increasing competitive desire and regulatory incentive to deploy AI mindfully within financial services. An important mechanism towards that end is to explain AI d…
Machine learning models are increasingly used to automate decisions that affect humans - deciding who should receive a loan, a job interview, or a social service. In such applications, a person should have the ability to change the decision of a model. When a person is denied a loan by a credit score, for example, they…
New algorithm for bandits with delayed action effects, reducing regret.
problem Delayed impact of actions in multi-armed bandits.
method Formulated a new bandit setting with delayed action effects, proposed an algorithm with regret bound.
result Achieved a regret of and showed a matching lower bound.
The study examines how social biases are reinforced in machine learning models used for credit scoring.
problem Reinforcement of societal biases in machine learning algorithms for credit scoring.
method Analysis of machine learning models predicting gender or ethnicity based on loan applications data.
result Machine learning models can reflect and reinforce social biases present in the data.
Incorporating constraints is a major concern in probabilistic machine learning. A wide variety of problems require predictions to be integrated with reasoning about constraints, from modelling routes on maps to approving loan predictions. In the former, we may require the prediction model to respect the presence of phy…
Approves updates to machine learning models in healthcare based on accumulating data.
problem Designing policies to autonomously approve updates to machine learning algorithms in non-stationary settings.
method Learning-to-approve (L2A) approach that uses accumulating monitoring data to learn how to approve modifications.
result L2A learns to abstain when performance drops are common and approves beneficial modifications quickly when the distribution is stable.
Fairness has become a central issue for our research community as classification algorithms are adopted in societally critical domains such as recidivism prediction and loan approval. In this work, we consider the potential bias based on protected attributes (e.g., race and gender), and tackle this problem by learning …
PerfGD solves model-induced data shifts by finding optimal points.
problem Model-induced data shifts where model choice changes data distribution.
method Performative Gradient Descent (PerfGD) which explicitly captures model-data interactions.
result PerfGD provably converges to performatively optimal point.
Study finds gender bias in human evaluators and shows how machine learning can mitigate it.
problem Gender bias in human decision-making on micro-lending platforms.
method Structural econometric model and machine learning algorithms trained on real-world data.
result Machine learning algorithms can mitigate both preference-based and belief-based biases.
We discovered secular trend bias in a drug effectiveness study for a recently approved drug. We compared treatment outcomes between patients who received the newly approved drug and patients exposed to the standard treatment. All patients diagnosed after the new drug's approval date were considered. We built a machine …
Study cost-effective fairness audits with partial feedback, improving over random exploration.
problem Auditing fairness of classifiers with limited true labels.
method Introduces cost model, proposes near-optimal algorithms for black-box and mixture models.
result Significantly lower audit costs compared to natural baselines.
Successful deployment of machine learning algorithms in healthcare requires careful assessments of their performance and safety. To date, the FDA approves locked algorithms prior to marketing and requires future updates to undergo separate premarket reviews. However, this negates a key feature of machine learning--the …
The Impact of Bitcoin ETF Approval on Bitcoin's Hedging Properties Against Traditional Assetsq-fin.GN
ETF approval boosts Bitcoin's correlation with equities, stabilizes with gold, and maintains negative correlation with fiat currencies.
problem Impact of Bitcoin ETF approval on Bitcoin's relationships with traditional assets.
method Rolling correlation analysis, Chow tests, and DCC-GARCH models.
result Bitcoin's correlation with equities increased significantly post-ETF approval, while its relationship with gold stabilized and remained negatively correlated with fiat currencies.
ShapShift explains shifts in model predictions due to data distribution changes.
problem Prediction shifts caused by changes in input distribution.
method Subgroup Conditional Shapley Values applied to decision trees and ensembles.
result Simple, faithful, and near-complete explanations of prediction shifts across model classes.
In this paper we first introduce two new financial products: stock loan and capped stock loan. Then we develop a pure variational inequality method to establish explicitly the values of these stock loans. Finally, we work out ranges of fair values of parameters associated with the loans.
Predictive models are being increasingly used to support consequential decision making at the individual level in contexts such as pretrial bail and loan approval. As a result, there is increasing social and legal pressure to provide explanations that help the affected individuals not only to understand why a predictio…
Economic effects on households of an augmentation of the cash back duration of real estate loanq-fin.CP
Examines how extending home loan durations affects French households financially.
problem Financial implications for households with extended home loan durations.
method Analysis of French and international home loan systems, including bullet loans and Japanese home loans.
result Extending home loan durations can reduce monthly payments but raises financial risks.
Data-driven algorithms play a large role in decision making across a variety of industries. Increasingly, these algorithms are being used to make decisions that have significant ramifications for people's social and economic well-being, e.g. in sentencing, loan approval, and policing. Amid the proliferation of such sys…
Two models predict net loan losses using Bayesian and frequentist regression.
problem Predicting net loan losses using financial and sociological data.
method Bayesian and frequentist regression analysis.
result Improved understanding of net loan loss relationships.
Current auto loans converge to super-prime credit despite remaining underwater.
problem Inefficient consumer behavior in auto loans leading to suboptimal credit risk.
method Large-sample statistical hypothesis test on transition matrix between risk bands.
result All current risk bands converge to super-prime credit, despite remaining underwater.
CounteRGAN generates realistic, actionable counterfactuals for machine learning models.
problem Creating realistic and actionable counterfactuals for machine learning models.
method Applying Residual GANs to improve counterfactual realism and actionability.
result CounteRGAN produces counterfactuals with improved realism and actionability, achieving real-time applicability.
Proposes minimal interventions over counterfactual explanations for algorithmic recourse.
problem Lack of actionable recommendations for algorithmic recourse.
method Causal reasoning to shift focus from explanations to recommendations.
result Minimal interventions provide more actionable recommendations for recourse.
An extendable, integrated, and dynamic approach to forecasting and stress-testing credit riskq-fin.CP
An integrated and extendable approach for stress-testing loan portfolios
problem Stress-testing loan portfolios
method Simulate completed portfolios, generate uncertain cash flow history, compute credit risk metrics
result Enhanced stress-testing practices within any bank
Credit scoring models support loan approval decisions in the financial services industry. Lenders train these models on data from previously granted credit applications, where the borrowers' repayment behavior has been observed. This approach creates sample bias. The scoring model (i.e., classifier) is trained on accep…
A stock loan is a loan, secured by a stock, which gives the borrower the right to redeem the stock at any time before or on the loan maturity. The way of dividends distribution has a significant effect on the pricing of the stock loan and the optimal redeeming strategy adopted by the borrower. We present the pricing mo…
Extends ASRF model for green and brown loans, accounting for systematic and idiosyncratic risks.
problem Credit risk assessment for portfolios of green and brown loans.
method Two-factor copula structure, skewed distributions for systematic risk, Gaussian for idiosyncratic risk, non-uniform exposure setting.
result Portfolio loss convergence to a limit reflecting green and brown loan characteristics.
Paper solves stock loan pricing with finite maturity using integral equations.
problem Valuation of margin-call stock loans with finite maturities.
method Fourier Sine transform and Volterra integral equation approach.
result Integral representation of margin-call stock loan value.
Derivatives impact U.S. banking sector's systemic risk, but loan and leverage ratios are more significant.
problem Systemic risk in U.S. banking sector due to derivatives and loans.
method Analysis of derivatives and loan data to assess systemic risk.
result Loan and leverage ratios are more influential in systemic risk than derivatives holdings.
Stock loans with liquidationq-fin.PR
We derive a "semi-analytic" solution for a stock loan in which the lender forces liquidation when the loan-to-collateral ratio drops beneath a certain threshold. We use this to study the sensitivity of the contract to model parameters.
Optimal student loan repayment strategies vary based on loan size.
problem Finding the most cost-effective repayment strategy for federal student loans.
method Analyzing the impact of different repayment strategies on total cost for varying loan sizes.
result Optimal repayment strategies depend on the loan balance, with different approaches for small, large, and intermediate balances.
This paper works out fair values of stock loan model with automatic termination clause, cap and margin. This stock loan is treated as a generalized perpetual American option with possibly negative interest rate and some constraints. Since it helps a bank to control the risk, the banks charge less service fees compared …
Paper calculates loan loss after default using Bayesian model.
problem Determining loan loss after borrower default.
method Bayesian scheme considering repayment period, volumes, moments, and parameters.
result Allows setting LGD less than or equal to 1 for accurate estimates.
A stock loan is a contract whereby a stockholder uses shares as collateral to borrow money from a bank or financial institution. In Xia and Zhou (2007), this contract is modeled as a perpetual American option with a time varying strike and analyzed in detail within a risk--neutral framework. In this paper, we extend th…
Kiva is an online non-profit crowdsouring microfinance platform that raises funds for the poor in the third world. The borrowers on Kiva are small business owners and individuals in urgent need of money. To raise funds as fast as possible, they have the option to form groups and post loan requests in the name of their …
In 1979 following a decade of hyperinflation, Iceland introduced Verðtryggð lán, negatively amortised, index-linked loans whose outstanding principal is increased by the rate of the consumer price inflation index(CPI). The loans were part of a general government policy which used indexation to the CPI to address the ec…
Flashot visualizes Flash Loan attacks in DeFi systems.
problem Lack of standard tools to study Flash Loan attacks in DeFi.
method Proposes Flashot, a prototype to transparently illustrate asset flows.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of Flashot in studying Flash Loan attacks.
Paper uses BERT to assess P2P borrowers' credit risk from loan descriptions.
problem Information asymmetry in P2P lending due to lack of borrower data.
method Fine-tunes BERT on Lending Club dataset to generate risk scores from loan descriptions.
result BERT-generated risk scores improve XGBoost classifier's performance in loan granting.
The study examines how limited liability and haircut affect a bank's loan portfolio's liquidity risk.
problem Impact of limited liability and haircut on a bank's loan portfolio's liquidity risk.
method Constructed a novel loan portfolio model with limited liability and haircut constraint, analyzed at three time steps.
result Model with haircut constraint leads to lesser liquidity risk.
Zero-Liquidation loans protect ETH borrowers from liquidation risks.
problem Risk of liquidation in DeFi lending protocols.
method Allows borrowers to repay in either USDC or pledged ETH, compensating liquidity providers with higher yield.
result More robust and less contagion-prone lending compared to traditional protocols.
Machine learning models are increasingly used in the industry to make decisions such as credit insurance approval. Some people may be tempted to manipulate specific variables, such as the age or the salary, in order to get better chances of approval. In this ongoing work, we propose to discuss, with a first proposition…
What Matters to Individual Investors: Price Setting in Online Auctions of P2P Consumer Loansq-fin.GN
Retail investors set interest rates for P2P loans based on borrower characteristics.
problem Understanding how individual investors price credit risk in online consumer loan auctions.
method Reverse auction framework, analyzing interest rate variance and borrower characteristics.
result Retail investors exhibit strong predictability in pricing, with gender and marital status influencing interest rates.
The authors examine the concept of probability of default for asset-backed loans. In contrast to unsecured loans it is shown that probability of default can be defined as either a measure of the likelihood of the borrower failing to make required payments, or as the likelihood of an insufficiency of collateral value on…
Online Peer to Peer Lending (P2PL) systems connect lenders and borrowers directly, thereby making it convenient to borrow and lend money without intermediaries such as banks. Many recommendation systems have been developed for lenders to achieve higher interest rates and avoid defaulting loans. However, there has not b…
Quantum credit loansq-fin.GN
Quantum mechanics applied to credit loans for better repayment schedules.
problem Improving repayment schedules for credit loans.
method Introducing quantum mechanics concepts to credit loans, defining operators for debt, amortization, interest, and installments, and using SO(M) symmetry to optimize periodic payments.
result Optimized repayment schedules for borrowers without altering lender's earnings.