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arXiv research

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48 results for load inference

In (exploratory) factor analysis, the loading matrix is identified only up to orthogonal rotation. For identifiability, one thus often takes the loading matrix to be lower triangular with positive diagonal entries. In Bayesian inference, a standard practice is then to specify a prior under which the loadings are indepe…

2014-09-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Designing probing injections for smart inverters to infer non-metered loads.

problem Inferring non-metered loads from electric grid probing.
method Designing probing injections that adhere to inverter and network constraints, using a library of candidate vectors and SDP relaxation for noisy data.
result Improved load estimates through optimal probing design.

Bayesian model infers factor dimensionality and sparse loading matrix adaptively.

problem Inference of high-dimensional sparse factor model with varying sparsity and factor dimensions.
method Adaptive Bayesian sparse factor model with posterior concentration.
result Posterior distribution asymptotically concentrates on true factor dimensionality and sparsity.

A hybrid strategy forecasts short-term loads using Warm-start Gradient Tree Boosting.

problem Lack of effective short-term load forecasting methods.
method Hybrid strategy integrating four different inference models: tree-based ensemble method Warm-start Gradient Tree Boosting (WGTB).
result Demonstrates effectiveness of hybrid strategy on real datasets.

TIP-Search optimizes market prediction accuracy and timeliness under uncertain load.

problem Real-time market prediction requires accurate predictions before a deadline.
method Filters feasible models, dispatches workers, trades accuracy for deadline risk.
result Optimized pool achieves 0.991 timely accuracy and 0.994 raw accuracy.

A new method uses Gaussian Processes to solve power flow problems with uncertain renewable and load inputs.

problem Solving power flow problems with uncertain renewable and load inputs.
method Non-parametric Bayesian inference-based uncertainty propagation using Gaussian Processes.
result The method provides reasonably accurate solutions with fewer samples and time compared to Monte-Carlo simulations.

New principle reduces load imbalance in LLM serving systems, saving up to 52% energy.

problem Wasted computational power due to load imbalance in LLM serving systems.
method Developed a universal load-balancing principle for barrier-synchronized systems with non-migratable state.
result Proves worst-case theoretical guarantees for imbalance reduction and energy savings.

This paper proposes a submodular load clustering method for transmission-level load areas.

problem Traditional load analysis challenges with new electricity usage patterns.
method Robust Principal Component Analysis (R-PCA) and submodular cluster center selection.
result The proposed method efficiently clusters load areas and demonstrates effectiveness in PJM load data.

CP-factorization for high-dimensional tensor time series and double projection iterations

problem Identifying and estimating factor loadings in CP decomposition for high-dimensional tensor time series
method One-pass estimation procedure using standard eigen-analysis for matrix constructed based on serial dependence
result Asymptotic properties established under general settings, adapt to sparsity, accommodates weak factors

Paper proposes a novel optimization method for disaggregating smart meter data.

problem Energy disaggregation, inferring appliance-specific energy consumption from aggregate meter data.
method Two-stage optimization approach: first phase uses mixed integer programming, second phase binary quadratic optimization with penalty terms and appliance constraints.
result Proposed method successfully reconstructs appliance signatures, overcoming previous optimization-based methods' limitations.

This paper analyzes load predictability at different aggregation levels and improves forecasting accuracy.

problem Challenges in short-term load forecasting, especially at low aggregation levels.
method Characterized SME and residential loads, quantified predictability using approximate entropy, compared various STLF techniques.
result Improved forecasting accuracy for low-aggregation loads, validated with data processing techniques.

SPLICE generates accurate time-series imputations with reliable prediction intervals.

problem Lack of reliability guarantees in time-series imputation models.
method Modular framework combining latent generative imputation with distribution-free prediction intervals.
result SPLICE achieves lowest mean Load-only MSE and best CRPS on various datasets.

Developing active inference agents for edge devices with limited resources.

problem Creating effective active inference agents on edge devices with limited computational resources.
method Introducing a software toolbox to accelerate the development of active inference agents by non-experts.
result Accelerates the democratization of active inference agents for edge devices.

Paper uses econometrics time series model with T-student Distribution for short-term load forecasting.

problem Accurate short-term load forecasting for optimizing electrical sources and protecting energy.
method Uses SARIMA-GARCH model with T-student Distribution to forecast electric load.
result The proposed model outperforms the ARIMA model with Normal Distribution.

We use online convex optimization (OCO) for setpoint tracking with uncertain, flexible loads. We consider full feedback from the loads, bandit feedback, and two intermediate types of feedback: partial bandit where a subset of the loads are individually observed and the rest are observed in aggregate, and Bernoulli feed…

2017-09-12abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper uses a diffusion model to forecast electrical loads with uncertainty.

problem Uncertainties in electrical load forecasting due to renewable energy and external events.
method Diffusion-based Seq2Seq structure for epistemic uncertainty and robust additive Cauchy distribution for aleatoric uncertainty.
result Ability to separate and quantify both types of uncertainties in load forecasting.

Paper presents a method for probabilistic load forecasting using adaptive online learning.

problem Inability to assess intrinsic uncertainties and capture dynamic changes in consumption patterns.
method Adaptive online learning of hidden Markov models for recursive parameter updates and sequential prediction.
result Significant improvement in performance compared to existing techniques across various scenarios.

New method predicts heat load in thermal grids using latent variables.

problem Predicting heat load in district energy systems.
method Combines nominal model for outdoor temperature with latent variable model for residual heat load.
result Proposed method achieves better prediction accuracy than artificial neural networks.

Paper proposes dense average network for improved power load forecasting.

problem Improving power load forecasting accuracy to save millions for the power industry.
method Introduces dense average connection and constructs dense average network for power load forecasting.
result Proposed model outperforms existing methods on public datasets.

Paper proposes a framework for probabilistic load forecasting by integrating point forecasts.

problem Short-term load forecasting for power systems energy management.
method Two-stage framework: first stage for point forecasting, second stage for probabilistic forecasting using feature integration.
result Numerical results show effectiveness of the proposed approach in hour-ahead load forecasting.

A new method calculates risk loadings in classification ratemaking without subjective parameters.

problem Subjective risk loading parameters in classification ratemaking.
method Bootstrap method to calculate total risk premium, then determine risk loading parameters using quantile regression models.
result Risk premiums calculated by the new method reasonably differentiate different risk classes.

Deep learning improves weather modeling for electricity load forecasting.

problem Accurate load and renewable energy forecasting requires complex spatio-temporal weather modeling.
method Automated spatio-temporal feature extraction using deep neural networks.
result Deep learning outperforms traditional methods in French national load forecasting.

A method for selecting data for short-term load forecasting using Bayesian probabilistic models.

problem Lack of effective data selection techniques in power load forecasting.
method A fully automatic methodology based on a full Bayesian probabilistic model.
result The method improves the performance of load forecast models using real data.

Study finds cherry-picking load shaping strategies outperforms others in reducing grid CO2 emissions.

problem Lack of detailed counterfactual data makes it hard to assess load shaping strategies' effectiveness.
method Calibrated granular ERCOT simulations for counterfactual analysis of load shaping strategies.
result LMP-based load shaping outperforms other strategies in reducing grid CO2 emissions.

Adaptive probabilistic load forecasting improves performance in power systems.

problem Complexity of electricity load forecasting due to changing drivers and local generation.
method Adaptive probabilistic approach using Kalman filter and online gradient descent.
result Adaptive probabilistic forecasts improve performance in both point and probabilistic forecasting.

Model uses GAMs to forecast hourly electricity load weeks to one year ahead.

problem Accurate mid-term hourly load forecasting for power plant operation and energy management.
method Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) with P-splines and autoregressive post-processing.
result Significantly enhanced forecasting accuracy compared to state-of-the-art methods.