A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We discuss the geometric foundation behind the use of stochastic processes in the frame bundle of a smooth manifold to build stochastic models with applications in statistical analysis of non-linear data. The transition densities for the projection to the manifold of Brownian motions developed in the frame bundle lead …
The existence of stationary Markov perfect equilibria in stochastic games is shown under a general condition called "(decomposable) coarser transition kernels". This result covers various earlier existence results on correlated equilibria, noisy stochastic games, stochastic games with finite actions and state-independe…
Optimally explores dynamical systems with varying properties using context inference.
problem Learning dynamics models for systems with varying properties.
method Formulates dynamics models as stochastic processes conditioned on a latent context variable inferred from system transitions. Uses probabilistic formulation to compute optimal action sequences for exploration.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of the method on non-linear toy-problems and reinforcement learning environments.
Moving boundary problems allow to model systems with phase transition at an inner boundary. Driven by problems in economics and finance, in particular modeling of limit order books, we consider a stochastic and non-linear extension of the classical Stefan-problem in one space dimension, where the paths of the moving in…
In this paper we study how to learn stochastic, multimodal transition dynamics in reinforcement learning (RL) tasks. We focus on evaluating transition function estimation, while we defer planning over this model to future work. Stochasticity is a fundamental property of many task environments. However, discriminative f…
There are various parametric models for analyzing pairwise comparison data, including the Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) and Thurstone models, but their reliance on strong parametric assumptions is limiting. In this work, we study a flexible model for pairwise comparisons, under which the probabilities of outcomes are requir…
The interaction between transitivity and sparsity, two common features in empirical networks, implies that there are local regions of large sparse networks that are dense. We call this the blessing of transitivity and it has consequences for both modeling and inference. Extant research suggests that statistical inferen…
Probabilistic programming languages can simplify the development of machine learning techniques, but only if inference is sufficiently scalable. Unfortunately, Bayesian parameter estimation for highly coupled models such as regressions and state-space models still scales poorly; each MCMC transition takes linear time i…
In this paper, we settle the sampling complexity of solving discounted two-player turn-based zero-sum stochastic games up to polylogarithmic factors. Given a stochastic game with discount factor γ∈(0,1) we provide an algorithm that computes an ε-optimal strategy with high-probability given $\tilde{O}((1 - γ)^{-3}…
Kernel-based reinforcement learning (KBRL) stands out among reinforcement learning algorithms for its strong theoretical guarantees. By casting the learning problem as a local kernel approximation, KBRL provides a way of computing a decision policy which is statistically consistent and converges to a unique solution. U…
Curiosity-Critic improves world model training by focusing on cumulative prediction error.
problem Training world models with intrinsic rewards that consider cumulative prediction error.
method Curiosity-Critic uses a surrogate reward based on the difference between current and asymptotic prediction errors, estimated online by a co-trained critic.
result Curiosity-Critic outperforms other methods in training speed and final world model accuracy.
Linear Q-learning converges to a bounded set without divergence.
problem Proving linear Q-learning does not diverge and converges to a bounded set.
method No modifications to the original linear Q-learning algorithm, no Bellman completeness or near-optimality assumptions, only an ε-softmax behavior policy with adaptive temperature.
result First L2 convergence rate of linear Q-learning iterates to a bounded set.
RFMs transition from linear to nonlinear under specific input-label correlation.
problem Understanding the transition from linear to nonlinear behavior in RFMs.
method Analyzing RFMs under spiked covariance designs, characterizing the interaction between anisotropy and input-label correlation.
result The RFM generalization error is governed by the strength of input-label correlation, leading to a clear nonlinear advantage above a specific boundary.
Generative Stochastic Networks (GSNs) have been recently introduced as an alternative to traditional probabilistic modeling: instead of parametrizing the data distribution directly, one parametrizes a transition operator for a Markov chain whose stationary distribution is an estimator of the data generating distributio…