A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We analyze linear factor models for asset pricing panels.
A linear multi-factor model is one of the most important tools in equity portfolio management. The linear multi-factor models are widely used because they can be easily interpreted. However, financial markets are not linear and their accuracy is limited. Recently, deep learning methods were proposed to predict stock re…
DPLS improves asset pricing by capturing non-linear risk factor structures.
The aim of our work is to propose a natural framework to account for all the empirically known properties of the multivariate distribution of stock returns. We define and study a "nested factor model", where the linear factors part is standard, but where the log-volatility of the linear factors and of the residuals are…
Proposes FARM model combining latent factor and sparse regression.
Individual risk models need to capture possible correlations as failing to do so typically results in an underestimation of extreme quantiles of the aggregate loss. Such dependence modelling is particularly important for managing credit risk, for instance, where joint defaults are a major cause of concern. Often, the d…
We find that the CAPM fails to explain the small firm effect even if its non-parametric form is used which allows time-varying risk and non-linearity in the pricing function. Furthermore, the linearity of the CAPM can be rejected, thus the widely used risk and performance measures, the beta and the alpha, are biased an…
Deep fundamental factor models are developed to automatically capture non-linearity and interaction effects in factor modeling. Uncertainty quantification provides interpretability with interval estimation, ranking of factor importances and estimation of interaction effects. With no hidden layers we recover a linear fa…
In a very high-dimensional vector space, two randomly-chosen vectors are almost orthogonal with high probability. Starting from this observation, we develop a statistical factor model, the random factor model, in which factors are chosen at random based on the random projection method. Randomness of factors has the con…
A new model explains asset returns with a single factor, improving cross-sectional performance.
The paper reviews identifiability in linear and nonlinear models, from Gaussian to non-Gaussian.
Develops polynomial diffusion models for multi-factor commodity futures dynamics.
We introduce a novel class of credit risk models in which the drift of the survival process of a firm is a linear function of the factors. The prices of defaultable bonds and credit default swaps (CDS) are linear-rational in the factors. The price of a CDS option can be uniformly approximated by polynomials in the fact…
Hedonic models predict 84-92% of U.S. real estate prices, highlighting environmental factors' impact.
This work connects LLE, factor analysis, and probabilistic PCA through a stochastic perspective.
PrecGD restores linear convergence in over-parameterized nonconvex matrix factorization.
The study compares different models for predicting factor premiums and finds neural networks perform better but have unstable weights.
Paper introduces non-linear discounting models for default compensation and climate valuation.
In this paper we propose and discuss different 0-1 linear models in order to solve the cardinality constrained portfolio problem by using factor models. Factor models are used to build portfolios to track indexes, together with other objectives, also need a smaller number of parameters to estimate than the classical Ma…
The paper analyzes statistical arbitrage using a factor model of equity returns.
Develops a deep multi-factor model for factor investing with clear financial insights.
A new method STMF improves missing value prediction using tropical semiring.
Deep neural networks decompose SDF into linear and nonlinear components.
Develops a fast algorithm for fitting multilevel factor models.
Nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) has been shown recently to be tractable under the separability assumption, under which all the columns of the input data matrix belong to the convex cone generated by only a few of these columns. Bittorf, Recht, Ré and Tropp (`Factoring nonnegative matrices with linear programs', …
Factor analysis provides linear factors that describe relationships between individual variables of a data set. We extend this classical formulation into linear factors that describe relationships between groups of variables, where each group represents either a set of related variables or a data set. The model also na…
The problem of portfolio allocation in the context of stocks evolving in random environments, that is with volatility and returns depending on random factors, has attracted a lot of attention. The problem of maximizing a power utility at a terminal time with only one random factor can be linearized thanks to a classica…
We identify which latent factors change between environments in linear causal models.
The recent financial crisis has led to so-called multi-curve models for the term structure. Here we study a multi-curve extension of short rate models where, in addition to the short rate itself, we introduce short rate spreads. In particular, we consider a Gaussian factor model where the short rate and the spreads are…
We found that factors decay over time, with momentum fitting best.
We consider the problem of discriminative factor analysis for data that are in general non-Gaussian. A Bayesian model based on the ranks of the data is proposed. We first introduce a new {\em max-margin} version of the rank-likelihood. A discriminative factor model is then developed, integrating the max-margin rank-lik…
Matrix factorization techniques have been widely used as a method for collaborative filtering for recommender systems. In recent times, different variants of deep learning algorithms have been explored in this setting to improve the task of making a personalized recommendation with user-item interaction data. The idea …
Separating high-dimensional data like images into independent latent factors, i.e independent component analysis (ICA), remains an open research problem. As we show, existing probabilistic deep generative models (DGMs), which are tailor-made for image data, underperform on non-linear ICA tasks. To address this, we prop…
A new framework improves volatility forecasting for financial markets.
This paper shows cross-entropy can recover latent structures in supervised learning.
Item response theory (IRT) is a non-linear generative probabilistic paradigm for using exams to identify, quantify, and compare latent traits of individuals, relative to their peers, within a population of interest. In pre-existing multidimensional IRT methods, one requires a factorization of the test items. For this t…
This paper describes a new approach, based on linear programming, for computing nonnegative matrix factorizations (NMFs). The key idea is a data-driven model for the factorization where the most salient features in the data are used to express the remaining features. More precisely, given a data matrix X, the algorithm…
In this paper, we propose a non-parametric conditional factor regression (NCFR)model for domains with high-dimensional input and response. NCFR enhances linear regression in two ways: a) introducing low-dimensional latent factors leading to dimensionality reduction and b) integrating an Indian Buffet Process as a prior…
Paper presents a deep learning method for estimating asset return precision matrices in noisy financial markets.
Matrix factorization is a well-studied task in machine learning for compactly representing large, noisy data. In our approach, instead of using the traditional concept of matrix rank, we define a new notion of link-rank based on a non-linear link function used within factorization. In particular, by applying the round …
We examine a general multi-factor model for commodity spot prices and futures valuation. We extend the multi-factor long-short model in Schwartz and Smith (2000) and Yan (2002) in two important aspects: firstly we allow for both the long and short term dynamic factors to be mean reverting incorporating stochastic volat…
Paper uses non-linear dimension reduction for better economic forecasting.
New algorithm speeds up fitting GLLVMs to large datasets.
Although nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) is NP-hard in general, it has been shown very recently that it is tractable under the assumption that the input nonnegative data matrix is close to being separable (separability requires that all columns of the input matrix belongs to the cone spanned by a small subset of…
Improved portfolio optimization using GAM factor models.
This paper explains double descent in linear neural networks, identifying new factors.
New method adds all interactions in non-linear models without high computational cost.
A neural network model tackles high-dimensional data with latent structures.