A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
ALFI improves likelihood-free inference for black-box generators.
Paper proposes a new method for probabilistic electricity price forecasting.
Implicit probabilistic models are a flexible class of models defined by a simulation process for data. They form the basis for theories which encompass our understanding of the physical world. Despite this fundamental nature, the use of implicit models remains limited due to challenges in specifying complex latent stru…
New method estimates HMM hidden states efficiently.
Novel framework optimizes experiments for implicit models using mutual information.
We extend recent work (Brehmer, et. al., 2018) that use neural networks as surrogate models for likelihood-free inference. As in the previous work, we exploit the fact that the joint likelihood ratio and joint score, conditioned on both observed and latent variables, can often be extracted from an implicit generative m…
Dual-ISL improves implicit generative model training with convex optimization and explicit density approximation.
A new method for experimental design focuses on predicting downstream quantities of interest.
Improved likelihood-free inference by localizing and refining low-dimensional approximations.
Deep generative models for graph-structured data offer a new angle on the problem of chemical synthesis: by optimizing differentiable models that directly generate molecular graphs, it is possible to side-step expensive search procedures in the discrete and vast space of chemical structures. We introduce MolGAN, an imp…
Bayesian experimental design involves the optimal allocation of resources in an experiment, with the aim of optimising cost and performance. For implicit models, where the likelihood is intractable but sampling from the model is possible, this task is particularly difficult and therefore largely unexplored. This is mai…
Deep neural network (DNN) regression models are widely used in applications requiring state-of-the-art predictive accuracy. However, until recently there has been little work on accurate uncertainty quantification for predictions from such models. We add to this literature by outlining an approach to constructing predi…
Deep Gaussian Processes improve likelihood-free inference for complex distributions.
Bayesian neural networks improved with scalable approximate inference.
Unified contrastive learning for likelihood-free inference.
Generative Bayesian Inference uses GANs for approximate posterior sampling.
Generative adversarial networks (GANs) provide an algorithmic framework for constructing generative models with several appealing properties: they do not require a likelihood function to be specified, only a generating procedure; they provide samples that are sharp and compelling; and they allow us to harness our knowl…
EnVAE uses energy score for likelihood-free VAEs, improving image reconstructions.
Proposes LFGP for likelihood-free Gaussian process regression.
Simulators often provide the best description of real-world phenomena. However, they also lead to challenging inverse problems because the density they implicitly define is often intractable. We present a new suite of simulation-based inference techniques that go beyond the traditional Approximate Bayesian Computation …
This paper introduces Wasserstein variational inference, a new form of approximate Bayesian inference based on optimal transport theory. Wasserstein variational inference uses a new family of divergences that includes both f-divergences and the Wasserstein distance as special cases. The gradients of the Wasserstein var…
Improved likelihood-free inference for high-dimensional models.
This study benchmarks likelihood-free inference methods for models with heavy-tailed or discrete data.
We introduce a framework using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) for likelihood--free inference (LFI) and Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) where we replace the black-box simulator model with an approximator network and generate a rich set of summary features in a data driven fashion. On benchmark data sets, …
PVI seeks a posterior that makes predictions closer to true data, not approximating the Bayesian posterior.
Bayesian inference on structured models typically relies on the ability to infer posterior distributions of underlying hidden variables. However, inference in implicit models or complex posterior distributions is hard. A popular tool for learning implicit models are generative adversarial networks (GANs) which learn pa…
A new method extends Bayesian optimization to more models and utilities.
Automatically learns summary features from time series data for likelihood-free inference.
Generative Bayesian Filtering improves inference in complex models without explicit density evaluations.
Paper proposes energy objective for training normalizing flows without determinants.
Engine for Likelihood-Free Inference (ELFI) is a Python software library for performing likelihood-free inference (LFI). ELFI provides a convenient syntax for arranging components in LFI, such as priors, simulators, summaries or distances, to a network called ELFI graph. The components can be implemented in a wide vari…
A new method reduces dimensionality for better likelihood-free parameter estimation.
New method uses Gaussian ODE filtering to approximate likelihoods for fast ODE inverse problems.
New method uses neural exponential families for likelihood-free inference.
New method for conditional sampling using M-GANs, likely-free inference.
Optimal algorithm selects biological models without prior info.
Likelihood-free inference involves inferring parameter values given observed data and a simulator model. The simulator is computer code which takes parameters, performs stochastic calculations, and outputs simulated data. In this work, we view the simulator as a function whose inputs are (1) the parameters and (2) a ve…
Parametric statistical models that are implicitly defined in terms of a stochastic data generating process are used in a wide range of scientific disciplines because they enable accurate modeling. However, learning the parameters from observed data is generally very difficult because their likelihood function is typica…
A new method improves likelihood-free Bayesian inference by transforming summary statistics and using efficient Variational Bayes.
Unified approach for sequence design combining likelihood-free inference and black-box optimization.
Our paper deals with inferring simulator-based statistical models given some observed data. A simulator-based model is a parametrized mechanism which specifies how data are generated. It is thus also referred to as generative model. We assume that only a finite number of parameters are of interest and allow the generat…
A learned generative model often produces biased statistics relative to the underlying data distribution. A standard technique to correct this bias is importance sampling, where samples from the model are weighted by the likelihood ratio under model and true distributions. When the likelihood ratio is unknown, it can b…
New method for state inference in state-space models with unknown dynamics.
Bayesian neural networks improve likelihood-free inference efficiency.
Likelihood-free inference is concerned with the estimation of the parameters of a non-differentiable stochastic simulator that best reproduce real observations. In the absence of a likelihood function, most of the existing inference methods optimize the simulator parameters through a handcrafted iterative procedure tha…
Likelihood-free methods such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) have extended the reach of statistical inference to problems with computationally intractable likelihoods. Such approaches perform well for small-to-moderate dimensional problems, but suffer a curse of dimensionality in the number of model parameter…
An explosion of high-throughput DNA sequencing in the past decade has led to a surge of interest in population-scale inference with whole-genome data. Recent work in population genetics has centered on designing inference methods for relatively simple model classes, and few scalable general-purpose inference techniques…
I consider two problems in machine learning and statistics: the problem of estimating the joint probability density of a collection of random variables, known as density estimation, and the problem of inferring model parameters when their likelihood is intractable, known as likelihood-free inference. The contribution o…