Develops a method to identify nonproperness sets in likelihood-equation systems.
problem Classifying data based on the number of positive critical points of likelihood functions.
method Computes nonproperness sets using a novel method and proves its correctness.
result The method is more efficient than existing methods in the literature.
Study on likelihood functions, associative equations, and Frobenius manifolds.
problem Maximum likelihood estimation and associativity equations in statistical models.
method Analyzes the cone of concentration matrices, log-likelihood function, and Frobenius manifolds.
result Maximum likelihood degree is indexed by components of Frobenius residuals.
In this paper we present nonparametric estimators for coefficients in stochastic differential equation if the data are described by independent, identically distributed random variables. The problem is formulated as a nonlinear ill-posed operator equation with a deterministic forward operator described by the Fokker-Pl…
Study of maximum likelihood under biased constraints reveals novel degeneracies and anomalous statistical behavior.
problem Investigating maximum likelihood under biased estimating equations.
method Analyzing the behavior of optimal distributions and log-likelihood statistics under mis-specification.
result Degeneracies in optimal distributions and anomalous behavior of log-likelihood statistics under mis-specification.
R package for Bayesian empirical likelihood sampling using HMC.
problem Sampling from non-convex Bayesian empirical likelihood posteriors.
method Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm for numerical integration.
result Efficient HMC sampling from BayesEL posteriors.
We propose a new inferential framework for constructing confidence regions and testing hypotheses in statistical models specified by a system of high dimensional estimating equations. We construct an influence function by projecting the fitted estimating equations to a sparse direction obtained by solving a large-scale…
DALTON improves ODE parameter estimation by learning from noisy data.
problem High sensitivity to parameters in ODEs produces unreliable parameter estimates.
method Data-adaptive probabilistic likelihood approximation for ODEs.
result DALTON produces more accurate parameter estimates than existing methods.
Continuous neural networks using differential equations.
problem Training and optimizing neural networks with continuous-depth architectures.
method Parameterize derivative of hidden state using neural networks and solve differential equations.
result End-to-end training of continuous-depth models.
Efficient likelihood computation improves kernel learning accuracy for complex models.
problem Improving accuracy of kernel learning for complex models and sparse signals.
method Exact likelihood computation using Kalman filter and diagonalized state transition equation.
result Posterior mean with reference prior is more accurate for complex models and sparse sampling.
Novel approach for SEM in small samples with p>n.
problem Small sample size and p>n issues in factor-based SEM. method Reformulates covariance structure into self-covariance and cross-covariance, defines a feasible set with relative error constraint.
result Improved stability and directional information in small-sample settings.
A learning algorithm achieves logarithmic regret in a market making model.
problem Learning the price sensitivity parameter in a market making model.
method Maximum-likelihood estimator with regularization, based on HJB equation.
result Regret upper bound of order ln^2 T in expectation.
Stochastic normalizing flows use SDEs for efficient training and sampling.
problem Efficient maximum likelihood estimation and variational inference.
method Continuous normalizing flows extended with stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and rough path theory.
result Stochastic normalizing flows enable efficient training and sampling from complex distributions.
The study analyzes the convergence rates of Gaussian mixtures of experts.
problem Analyzing the convergence rates of Gaussian mixtures of experts.
method The study uses a novel notion of algebraic independence and optimal transport theory to establish convergence rates and minimax lower bounds.
result The study provides theoretical convergence rates for maximum likelihood estimation of over-specified Gaussian mixtures of experts.
New method learns latent energy models using particle algorithms.
problem Learning latent variable models with energy priors.
method Continuous-time SDEs for MMLE, particle-based discretization.
result Practical algorithm converges to solve MMLE problem.
A new two-step MH method for Bayesian EL computation.
problem Complex likelihood support in Bayesian EL.
method Hierarchical Metropolis Hastings with reversible jump MCMC.
result Improved sampling from BayesEL posteriors.
PASTIS selects minimal models from stochastic dynamics data.
problem Overfitting in model selection for stochastic dynamics.
method Combining likelihood-estimation statistics with extreme value theory.
result PASTIS reliably identifies minimal models, even with low sampling rates or error.
Estimates softmax parameters without data, using class geometry.
problem Softmax parameter estimation with limited labeled data.
method Solves linear equations based on class geometry specifications.
result Closed-form solutions possible without data sampling.
Unified framework for Gaussian process methods in differential equations.
problem Fragmented approaches to Gaussian process methods in differential equations.
method Unified Bayesian perspective integrating differential equation constraints.
result Consolidation of existing methods and foundation for future research.
A new ABC method simplifies Bayesian inference for complex models.
problem Computational difficulty in Bayesian inference for models without analytical likelihoods.
method Empirical likelihood ABC method that requires only summary statistics and simulation.
result The posterior obtained is consistent and performs well across various examples.
We introduce a simple method for nearly simultaneous computation of all moments needed for quasi maximum likelihood estimation of parameters in discretely observed stochastic differential equations commonly seen in finance. The method proposed in this papers is not restricted to any particular dynamics of the different…
New method uses SDEs for accurate non-uniformly sampled time series analysis.
problem Characterizing non-uniformly sampled time series with high accuracy.
method Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) for modeling, incremental estimation, and model truncation.
result Increased accuracy in characterizing non-uniformly sampled time series.
New estimator for tensor weights with improved bias.
problem Estimating tensor weights from noisy data.
method Random matrix theory and KKT conditions.
result Asymptotically unbiased estimator for tensor rank.
New method learns diffusion transition density for Bayesian inference.
problem Bayesian inference on diffusions with inaccessible boundaries.
method Neural Galerkin framework to solve FP equation with Dirac mass.
result Approximates likelihood function for efficient posterior sampling.
Proposes a method for valid inference in GPLSIMs with longitudinal data.
problem Challenges in longitudinal data inference due to within-subject correlation and unstable variance estimation.
method Profile estimating-equation approach using spline approximation and block empirical likelihood.
result Block empirical likelihood ratio statistic with Wilks-type chi-square limit for joint inference.
EM algorithm converges to global max in latent Gaussian tree models.
problem Optimizing log-likelihood in latent Gaussian tree models.
method Analyzed the optimization landscape and convergence of EM algorithm.
result EM algorithm converges to global maximum in latent Gaussian tree models.
Warm starts improve Gaussian process regression by up to 16x.
problem Optimizing hyperparameters for Gaussian processes.
method Iterative Gaussian processes with warm start optimization.
result Warm starts achieve the same results as conventional methods but significantly speed up computations.
A new ABC method uses variational approximations for efficient inference.
problem Computational challenges in Bayesian inference for complex models.
method Variational approximation for log-posterior, empirical likelihood for estimating expected log-likelihood, differential entropy estimation.
result Posterior consistency established for the proposed method.
Neural SDEs model continuous sequences using neural networks.
problem Modeling continuous-time dynamics in sequence data.
method Interprets time-series as samples from a continuous dynamical system, parameterized by Neural SDE.
result Demonstrates superior performance in diverse sequence modeling tasks.
Model change points in time-series data with neural SDEs and variational autoencoders.
problem Modeling change points in time-series data with neural stochastic differential equations.
method Proposes a novel model formulation and training procedure based on the variational autoencoder framework, alternating between updating neural SDE parameters and change points.
result Demonstrates the expressive power of the proposed model in modeling both classical parametric SDEs and real datasets with distribution shifts.
Introduces a new theoretical framework for exponential smoothing.
problem Theoretical foundation and robustness of simple exponential smoothing.
method Stochastic gradient ascent to optimize Gaussian log-likelihood functions.
result Simple exponential smoothing converges to the trend of a trend-stationary process.
New model forecasts long-memory series with time-varying parameters.
problem Forecasting long-memory series with dynamic parameters.
method Proposes a new long-memory model with a time-varying fractional parameter, driven by predictive likelihood score.
result Validated through Monte Carlo experiment and real data applications.
Bayesian methods solve complex nonlinear PDEs efficiently.
problem Solving nonlinear PDEs with high computational cost.
method Bayesian inference with approximate likelihood based on discretization.
result Probabilistic uncertainty quantification for PDE solutions is feasible.
New method for IRL with missing data.
problem Recovering reward function with missing data.
method Direct computation of log-likelihood with linear equations.
result Efficient handling of missing segments in trajectories.
Capacity control, the bias/variance dilemma, and learning unknown functions from data, are all concerned with identifying effective and consistent fits of unknown geometric loci to random data points. A geometric locus is a curve or surface formed by points, all of which possess some uniform property. A geometric locus…
We solve the mean parametrization of von Mises-Fisher distribution.
problem No closed-form normalization function for mean parameters exists.
method Derived a second-order ODE for mean normalizer and provided approximations.
result Rapid evaluation of densities and natural parameters in terms of mean parameters.
We introduce a dynamic credit portfolio framework where optimal investment strategies are robust against misspecifications of the reference credit model. The risk-averse investor models his fear of credit risk misspecification by considering a set of plausible alternatives whose expected log likelihood ratios are penal…
SODEN uses neural networks and ODEs for scalable survival analysis.
problem Survival analysis with censored data and strong structural assumptions.
method Modeling survival distribution as an ODE, using adjoint sensitivity analysis for efficient optimization.
result Efficient estimation of survival models in large-scale applications.
Bayesian GED-Gamma model improves SV model for return data.
problem Intractable latent parameters in volatility models.
method Bayesian GED-Gamma SV model with marginal likelihood, non-linear Gaussian evolution.
result Proposed model can be reasonably estimated and provides better fit and prediction.
WENDy now estimates nonlinear ODEs with noisy data.
problem Estimating parameters of nonlinear ODEs with noisy data.
method WENDy-MLE algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of nonlinear-in-parameters ODEs.
result WENDy-MLE outperforms other methods in accuracy, speed, and domain of convergence.
Bayesian inference for expensive likelihoods using Langevin Monte Carlo with NF.
problem Sampling from complex posterior distributions with expensive likelihoods.
method Deterministic Langevin equation with NF gradient, Metropolis-Hastings updates.
result Competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Researchers develop a method for statistical inference in models with intractable likelihoods.
problem Statistical inference for models with intractable likelihoods.
method Minimum distance estimators using maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) in reproducing kernel Hilbert space.
result The estimators are consistent, asymptotically normal, and robust to model misspecification.
New method for conditional sampling using M-GANs, likely-free inference.
problem Conditional sampling of probability measures.
method Developed a novel computational approach called M-GANs based on block triangular transport.
result Accurate sampling of conditional measures in various applications.
CNFs learn on manifolds using PPD, improving likelihood and sample quality.
problem Training CNFs on manifolds efficiently and accurately.
method Minimizing PPD, a novel divergence, to train CNFs on manifolds.
result CNFs trained with PPD achieve state-of-the-art results on manifold benchmarks.
New framework trains Schrödinger Bridge models using SDEs for generative tasks.
problem Unclear relation between SB optimization and modern generative model training.
method Forward-Backward SDEs theory for likelihood training of SB models.
result Training algorithm achieves comparable results on image generation datasets.
Parameters defined via General Estimating Equations (GEE) can be estimated by maximizing the Empirical Likelihood (EL). Newey and Smith (2004) have recently shown that this EL estimator exhibits desirable higher-order asymptotic properties, namely, that its O(n^-1) bias is small and that bias-corrected EL is higher-ord…
Parameters defined via general estimating equations (GEE) can be estimated by maximizing the empirical likelihood (EL). Newey and Smith [Econometrica 72 (2004) 219--255] have recently shown that this EL estimator exhibits desirable higher-order asymptotic properties, namely, that its O(n−1) bias is small and that …
Gaussian process regression helps approximate Bayesian inverse problems efficiently.
problem Computational intractability of Bayesian posterior distributions in inverse problems.
method Gaussian process regression to build a surrogate model for the likelihood.
result Error between true and approximate posterior can be bounded by weighted L2-norm error between true and approximate likelihood. This study proposes an efficient surrogate for Darcy flow inverse problems.
problem Efficiently constructing accurate surrogate models for high-dimensional complex inverse problems.
method Sequential Bayesian design strategy to acquire a locally accurate surrogate model focusing on high-probability regions.
result The proposed method accelerates inversion accuracy and computational speed.