Deep generative networks have been widely used for learning mappings from a low-dimensional latent space to a high-dimensional data space. In many cases, data transformations are defined by linear paths in this latent space. However, the Euclidean structure of the latent space may be a poor match for the underlying lat…
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48 results for “latent paths”
Temporal Coarse-Graining of Latent Default-Probability Paths Generates Effective Default Correlationq-fin.ST
Temporal aggregation reveals latent default correlation from monthly data.
problem Understanding effective default correlation from monthly default data.
method Temporal coarse-graining of latent default-probability paths.
result Temporal coarse-graining improves identifiability and reduces over-allocation of long-horizon fluctuations.
Unified approach to DP problems using Gumbel distribution and variational Bayesian inference.
problem Solving classical optimal path problems in a probabilistic framework.
method Gumbel distribution and variational Bayesian inference for latent optimal paths.
result Unified approach transforms DP problems into directed acyclic graphs with Gibbs distribution.
Temporal Coarse-Graining of Latent Default-Probability Paths Generates Effective Default Correlationq-fin.ST
Temporal coarse-graining of latent default paths explains effective correlation in corporate defaults.
problem Understanding effective default correlation in corporate defaults.
method Temporal coarse-graining of latent default-probability paths, applied to corporate default-count data.
result Temporal coarse-graining provides a scale-consistent baseline that improves identifiability and reduces over-allocation of long-horizon fluctuations.
Generative models use Riemannian manifolds to improve latent space interpretation.
problem Generative models often bias latent space interpretations.
method Use Riemannian manifolds to define latent space paths that respect ambient geometry.
result Improves interpretability of learned representations for both stochastic and deterministic generators.
We study the problem of learning the support of transition matrix between random processes in a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model from samples when a subset of the processes are latent. It is well known that ignoring the effect of the latent processes may lead to very different estimates of the influences among observe…
Enhances interpolation paths in latent space using particle filters.
problem Generating meaningful interpolations between data points in latent space.
method Introduces a discriminator network to guide particle filter sampling of interpolation paths.
result Improved variability and stronger drift towards high data density areas.
In implicit models, one often interpolates between sampled points in latent space. As we show in this paper, care needs to be taken to match-up the distributional assumptions on code vectors with the geometry of the interpolating paths. Otherwise, typical assumptions about the quality and semantics of in-between points…
Neural Diffusion Intensity Models simplify Cox processes inference.
problem Intractable nonparametric estimation and posterior inference of latent stochastic intensity in Cox processes.
method Variational framework using neural SDEs, with theoretical guarantee of ELBO maximization coinciding with maximum likelihood estimation.
result Accurate recovery of latent intensity dynamics and posterior paths with significant speedup.
This paper improves probabilistic latent models on hyperbolic spaces.
problem Uncertainty in predictions due to geodesics crossing low-data regions.
method Augmenting hyperbolic manifold with a pullback metric for probabilistic pullback metrics.
result Geodesics on pullback metric respect both geometry and data distribution, reducing uncertainty.
Synthetic tabular data synthesis models balance utility and risk.
problem Generating synthetic tabular data for regulated domains.
method Latent flow models with various learning targets, paths, and sampling methods.
result Velocity and posterior matching objectives yield higher utility, while score and noise matching achieve lower risk.
We present a representation learning algorithm that learns a low-dimensional latent dynamical system from high-dimensional \textit{sequential} raw data, e.g., video. The framework builds upon recent advances in amortized inference methods that use both an inference network and a refinement procedure to output samples f…
An efficient search-and-score algorithm for ancestral graphs using multivariate information scorescs.LG
Efficiently searches ancestral graphs using multivariate information.
problem Discovering causal relationships in graphs with latent variables.
method Greedy search-and-score algorithm with two-step approach.
result Outperforms existing methods on benchmark datasets.
New method infers and samples point processes from latent diffusion.
problem Modeling point processes with latent diffusion.
method Itô's excursion theory for inference and sampling.
result Proposes a new method to infer and sample point processes.
Efficient algorithms decide algebraic constraints of causal graphs.
problem Distinguish causal graphs with latent confounders.
method Study algebraic constraints and propose efficient algorithms.
result Decide equivalence or subset of algebraic constraints.
Predictive models can fail to generalize from training to deployment environments because of dataset shift, posing a threat to model reliability and the safety of downstream decisions made in practice. Instead of using samples from the target distribution to reactively correct dataset shift, we use graphical knowledge …
New probability path model improves flow matching forecasting performance.
problem Impact of probability path model selection on flow matching forecasting performance.
method Proposed a novel probability path model designed to improve forecasting performance.
result Our model achieves faster convergence during training and improved predictive performance compared to existing models.
A new method uses string method to explore diffusion models.
problem Understanding the geometry of learned distributions in diffusion models.
method String method to compute continuous paths between samples.
result The string method identifies realistic morphing sequences and transition pathways.
New method identifies latent relationships in deep models without additional constraints.
problem Latent representations in deep latent variable models are not statistically identifiable.
method Identifies relationships between latent variables (distances, angles, volumes) under mild model conditions.
result Empirically demonstrates more reliable latent distances without additional labeled data.
New method generates synthetic time series paths with more flexibility.
problem Restrictions in generating synthetic paths using Brownian reference.
method Introduces Triangular-Reference Schrödinger Bridges (TR-SBTS) for time series generation.
result Generates synthetic paths with more flexibility in stochastic volatility and correlated noise.
A Bayesian framework models dynamic probability predictions over time.
problem Dynamic probability predictions over time in various settings.
method Gaussian latent information martingale (GLIM) framework.
result GLIM outperforms baseline methods in predicting future uncertainties.
Paper uncovers causal structures in Hawkes processes with latent subprocesses.
problem Tackles latent subprocesses in Hawkes processes with complex event-driven interactions.
method Proposes a two-phase iterative algorithm that infers causal relationships and identifies latent subprocesses.
result Successfully recovers causal structures in datasets with latent subprocesses.
Latent factor models have achieved great success in personalized recommendations, but they are also notoriously difficult to explain. In this work, we integrate regression trees to guide the learning of latent factor models for recommendation, and use the learnt tree structure to explain the resulting latent factors. S…
We present, for the first time, a novel deep neural network architecture called \dcn with a dual-path connection between the input image and output class label for mammogram image processing. This architecture is built upon U-Net, which non-linearly maps the input data into a deep latent space. One path of the \dcnn, t…
VAELLS learns latent manifold structure to improve VAE model accuracy.
problem VAEs struggle with mismatched latent structure and global structure.
method Integrates learnable manifold model into latent space of VAE.
result Improves model accuracy by matching prior to data manifold structure.
The paper optimizes portfolios using MACD signals derived from price history.
problem Optimizing risky asset portfolios with latent mean-reverting and momentum factors.
method Derives optimal strategies based on MACD signals from EMA processes.
result Establishes admissibility and verification of optimal strategies.
Latent Variable Phillips Curveq-fin.ST
New latent variable model improves inflation forecasting accuracy.
problem Improving medium-term inflation forecasting accuracy.
method Formulated and tested a latent variable Phillips curve hypothesis using 3,968 factor combinations.
result Latent variable PC models outperform traditional models by 6-8 quarters.
Researchers identify latent variables and causal structures from nonlinear hierarchical models.
problem Challenging task of identifying latent variables and causal structures from observational data, especially when relationships are nonlinear.
method Investigated nonlinear latent hierarchical causal models, developed identification criterion, and constructed an estimation procedure.
result Identifiability of causal structures and latent variables achieved under mild assumptions.
Path regularization improves GFlowNets exploration and generalization.
problem Improving GFlowNets exploration and generalization.
method Path regularization based on optimal transport theory.
result Path regularization enhances GFlowNets to generate more diverse and novel candidates.
We investigate the geometrical structure of probabilistic generative dimensionality reduction models using the tools of Riemannian geometry. We explicitly define a distribution over the natural metric given by the models. We provide the necessary algorithms to compute expected metric tensors where the distribution over…
New method identifies root causes in presence of latent confounding.
problem Identifying root causes in the presence of latent variables.
method Extract Errors with Latents (EEL) procedure for inferring root causes.
result Superior accuracy and robustness compared to previous methods.
Study combines SEM, OLS, and DML for robustness checks in survey-based research.
problem Stability of SEM findings under alternative estimation frameworks.
method Staged robustness analysis framework connecting SEM, OLS, and DML.
result Identifies stable and unstable relationships across SEM, OLS, and DML checks.
Deep generative models are tremendously successful in learning low-dimensional latent representations that well-describe the data. These representations, however, tend to much distort relationships between points, i.e. pairwise distances tend to not reflect semantic similarities well. This renders unsupervised tasks, s…
Method learns dynamics from noisy partial observations.
problem Reconstructing stochastic dynamical systems from indirect noisy data.
method Amortized path generation method for nonlinear stochastic filtering.
result Learned conditional path generator quantifies uncertainty.
New method infers hidden states in continuous-time phenomena better than traditional models.
problem Traditional HSMM's are limited to discrete time grids and cannot handle irregularly spaced data.
method Formulated integro-differential forward and backward equations for CTSMC's, introduced scalable Viterbi-type algorithm.
result Efficiently solved equations for posterior marginals and path estimates.
There are many real-world knowledge based networked systems with multi-type interacting entities that can be regarded as heterogeneous networks including human connections and biological evolutions. One of the main issues in such networks is to predict information diffusion such as shape, growth and size of social even…
We develop an approach to learn an interpretable semi-parametric model of a latent continuous-time stochastic dynamical system, assuming noisy high-dimensional outputs sampled at uneven times. The dynamics are described by a nonlinear stochastic differential equation (SDE) driven by a Wiener process, with a drift evolu…
LIMP learns latent shapes with metric preservation, improving generative models.
problem Insufficient training data for high-fidelity latent representations.
method Metric preservation as a prior, geometric distortion criterion, geodesic loss.
result Synthetic samples of higher quality achieved through metric preservation.
Method for factor analysis in short panels without assuming sphericity or Gaussianity.
problem Factor analysis in short panels without assuming sphericity or Gaussianity.
method Pseudo maximum likelihood method and asymptotically uniformly most powerful invariant test.
result Systematic risk explains a large part of cross-sectional total variance in bear markets but is not spanned by observed factors.
Gaussian-Dirichlet Random Fields for Inference over High Dimensional Categorical Observationsstat.ML
Generative model for high-dimensional categorical data using Gaussian-Dirichlet fields.
problem Efficiently modeling and predicting high-dimensional categorical data.
method Combines Dirichlet and Gaussian processes for spatio-temporal modeling.
result Model accurately approximates categorical data in unobserved locations.
Introduction to Latent Variable Energy-Based Models: A Path Towards Autonomous Machine Intelligencecs.LG
Future autonomous systems need reliable world models and complex action sequences.
problem Current automated systems lack reliable world models and complex action sequences.
method Introduce energy-based and latent variable models combined in a hierarchical joint embedding predictive architecture (H-JEPA).
result Combining energy-based and latent variable models in H-JEPA can lead to reliable world models and complex action sequences.
New method certifies generative models' robustness.
problem Certifying generative models' robustness is challenging due to non-convex sets.
method ApproxLine, a scalable certification method capturing infinite sets or distributions over them.
result ApproxLine provides sound deterministic and probabilistic guarantees.
Simultaneous Latent Budget Trees for stratified classification
problem Classification with stratification factors
method Probabilistic machine learning framework
result Interpretation of latent components and conditional split rule
Generative models learn better with data-adaptive noise.
problem Learning heavy-tailed distributions in flow-based models.
method Data-adaptive latent noise using 1D quantile functions optimized via Wasserstein distance.
result Flexibility and effectiveness in learning heavy-tailed and compactly supported distributions.
Tree-Query uses LLMs to discover causal relationships in a transparent, interpretable manner.
problem Error propagation in classical causal discovery methods and opaque, confidence-free behavior of recent LLM-based causal oracles.
method Tree-Query is a tree-structured, multi-expert LLM framework that reduces causal discovery to queries about backdoor paths and dependencies.
result Tree-Query provides interpretable judgments with robustness-aware confidence scores and improves structural metrics over LLM baselines.
A hybrid framework prices options using neural networks and VAE latent space.
problem Lack of explicit asset dynamics information in compressed volatility surfaces.
method Combining Weighted Monte Carlo with neural networks trained on VAE latent space.
result Effective pricing of vanilla and exotic options on idealized vol surface.
Recent advances in the estimation of deep directed graphical models and recurrent networks let us contribute to the removal of a blind spot in the area of probabilistc modelling of time series. The proposed methods i) can infer distributed latent state-space trajectories with nonlinear transitions, ii) scale to large d…
Scalable Gaussian processes with latent Kronecker structure for large datasets.
problem Limited scalability of Gaussian processes for large datasets.
method Leveraging latent Kronecker structure, projecting kernel matrix onto latent Kronecker product, using iterative linear system solvers and pathwise conditioning.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art sparse and variational GPs on real-world datasets with up to five million examples.