A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Recent years have witnessed the surge of asynchronous parallel (async-parallel) iterative algorithms due to problems involving very large-scale data and a large number of decision variables. Because of asynchrony, the iterates are computed with outdated information, and the age of the outdated information, which we cal…
We investigate multiarmed bandits with delayed feedback, where the delays need neither be identical nor bounded. We first prove that "delayed" Exp3 achieves the O((KT+D)lnK) regret bound conjectured by Cesa-Bianchi et al. [2019] in the case of variable, but bounded delays. Here, K is the number of actio…
Study on synchronization in financial markets with time delays.
problem Understanding market dynamics and synchronization in financial systems with time delays.
method Examined a system of coupled non-linear delay-differential equations, linearized for small delays, and analyzed collective dynamics using bifurcation diagrams and numerical solutions.
result Demonstrated that limit cycles can be maintained in coupled N-asset models with appropriate parameterization, leading to market synchronization.
Predicting conversion rates (CVRs) in display advertising (e.g., predicting the proportion of users who purchase an item (i.e., a conversion) after its corresponding ad is clicked) is important when measuring the effects of ads shown to users and to understanding the interests of the users. There is generally a time de…
In this paper we studied about the wavelet identification of the thresholds and time delay for more general case without the constraint that the time delay is smaller than the order of the model. Here we composed an empirical wavelet from the SETAR (Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive) model and identified the thres…
We propose a model to study the effects of delayed information on option pricing. We first talk about the absence of arbitrage in our model, and then discuss super replication with delayed information in a binomial model, notably, we present a closed form formula for the price of convex contingent claims. Also, we addr…
Time-continuous dimensional descriptions of emotions (e.g., arousal, valence) allow researchers to characterize short-time changes and to capture long-term trends in emotion expression. However, continuous emotion labels are generally not synchronized with the input speech signal due to delays caused by reaction-time, …
We construct and analyze symmetrized delay correlation matrices for empirical data sets for atmopheric and financial data to derive information about correlation between different entities of the time series over time. The information about correlations is obtained by comparing the results for the eigenvalue distributi…
Stochastic delay differential equations (SDDE's) have been used for financial modeling. In this article, we study a SDDE obtained by the equation of a CIR process, with an additional fixed delay term in drift; in particular, we prove that there exists a unique strong solution (positive and integrable) which we call fix…
Study improves risk evaluation timing with right-censored reporting delays.
problem Improving risk evaluation under short observation windows due to administrative censoring.
method Jointly models parametric hazards for event and reporting processes, uses Monte Carlo expectation-maximization algorithm, and proposes transfer-learning procedure.
result Improves accuracy of timely risk evaluation under administrative censoring.
In this paper we investigate novel applications of a new class of equations which we call time-delayed backward stochastic differential equations. Time-delayed BSDEs may arise in finance when we want to find an investment strategy and an investment portfolio which should replicate a liability or meet a target depending…
One of the challenges in display advertising is that the distribution of features and click through rate (CTR) can exhibit large shifts over time due to seasonality, changes to ad campaigns and other factors. The predominant strategy to keep up with these shifts is to train predictive models continuously, on fresh data…
In this paper we show that several dynamical systems with time delay can be described as vector fields associated to smooth functions via a bracket of Leibniz structure. Some examples illustrate the theoretical considerations.
This study analyzes and predicts airline delays using machine learning models.
problem Improving the accuracy of predicting airline flight delays.
method The study combines airline and weather datasets, using various machine learning models (Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes, K-NN, Decision Tree, Random Forest) to predict flight delays.
result The Random Forest model achieved an accuracy of 82% in predicting flight delays of 15 minutes or more.
Granger causality is a fundamental technique for causal inference in time series data, commonly used in the social and biological sciences. Typical operationalizations of Granger causality make a strong assumption that every time point of the effect time series is influenced by a combination of other time series with a…
India runs the fourth largest railway transport network size carrying over 8 billion passengers per year. However, the travel experience of passengers is frequently marked by delays, i.e., late arrival of trains at stations, causing inconvenience. In a first, we study the systemic delays in train arrivals using n-order…