New causal distances improve evaluation of causal discovery algorithms.
problem Evaluating causal discovery algorithms using graphical distances is limited.
method Defined causal distances based on causal distributions rather than graphical structure.
result Improved evaluation of causal discovery algorithms on synthetic and real-world datasets.
Deep SCMs with deep learning infer counterfactuals from noisy data.
problem Inference of counterfactuals from noisy data in causal models.
method Normalizing flows and variational inference for deep SCMs.
result Tractable inference of exogenous noise variables for counterfactuals.
New definition of patient-specific root causes of disease using counterfactuals.
problem Lack of rigorous mathematical formulation for automatic detection of root causes.
method Proposes a counterfactual definition matching clinical intuition and uses Shapley values for causal contribution scores.
result Adapts to disease prevalence, accounts for noisy labels, and admits fast computation.
Mack's estimator improves chain ladder prediction for large exposure insurance models.
problem Uncertainty quantification in compound Poisson loss models.
method Large exposure asymptotics applied to Mack's estimator.
result Chain ladder prediction uncertainty can be quantified without model assumptions.
Paper simplifies calculating causation probabilities and ranks root causes.
problem Computational challenges in assessing causal relationships.
method Algorithmic simplifications and novel methodological framework for Root Cause Analysis.
result Significantly reduces computational complexity for calculating causation probabilities.
Characterizes quasiconformally homogeneous ladder surfaces.
problem Characterize quasiconformally homogeneous Riemann surfaces.
method Breaks the problem into four cases and proves one case.
result Every quasiconformally homogeneous ladder surface is quasiconformally equivalent to a regular cover of a closed surface.
A method for analysing the risk of taking a too low reserve level by use of Chain Ladder method is developed. We give an answer to the question of how much safety loading in terms of the Chain Ladder standard error has to be added to the Chain Ladder reserve in order to reach a specified security level in loss reservin…
Efficiently constructs sparse ROMs for high-dimensional data using causation entropy.
problem Creating effective reduced-order models for high-dimensional dynamical data.
method Uses causation entropy to identify important terms and construct ROMs with varying sparsity.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of causation entropy in constructing sparse ROMs for chaotic systems with skewed statistics.
We examine spaces of connected tri-/univalent graphs subject to local relations which are motivated by the theory of Vassiliev invariants. It is shown that the behaviour of ladder-like subgraphs is strongly related to the parity of the number of rungs: there are similar relations for ladders of even and odd lengths, re…
Models predict probabilities of causation from limited data.
problem Estimating probabilities of causation requires unreliable or impractical experimental and observational data.
method Proposed Exact-MLP and Mask-MLP models trained on reliable subpopulations.
result Models achieve average MAEs of roughly 0.03, reducing MAE by 80%.
Study gluing of Lorentzian length spaces and their causal ladder properties.
problem Compatibility of Lorentzian amalgamation with length space properties.
method Conditions for gluing Lorentzian length spaces and criteria for causal ladder preservation.
result Gluing of Lorentzian length spaces yields again a Lorentzian length space under certain conditions.
Talked about the Veech group of a specific surface.
problem Identifying the Veech group of a translation surface of infinite type.
method Analyzing the golden ladder surface.
result Answered a question posed by Hooper and Treviño.
We used the Ladder Network [Rasmus et al. (2015)] to perform Hyperspectral Image Classification in a semi-supervised setting. The Ladder Network distinguishes itself from other semi-supervised methods by jointly optimizing a supervised and unsupervised cost. In many settings this has proven to be more successful than o…
We classify all groups which can occur as the orientation preserving topological symmetry group of some embedding of a Möbius ladder graph in S3.
Parallel transport is an important step in many discrete algorithms for statistical computing on manifolds. Numerical methods based on Jacobi fields or geodesics parallelograms are currently used in geometric data processing. In this last class, pole ladder is a simplification of Schild's ladder for the parallel transp…
Semi-supervised learning (SSL) partially circumvents the high cost of labeling data by augmenting a small labeled dataset with a large and relatively cheap unlabeled dataset drawn from the same distribution. This paper offers a novel interpretation of two deep learning-based SSL approaches, ladder networks and virtual …
New ladder methods improve numerical accuracy in parallel transport on manifolds.
problem Lack of convergence analysis for ladder schemes on manifolds.
method Taylor approximations and iterative constructions of geodesic parallelograms.
result Ladder methods converge quadratically with quadratic speed.
The paper finds pseudo-Anosov-like maps on an infinite ladder surface.
problem Exploring dynamics on infinite surfaces.
method Lifts Penner-type pseudo-Anosov maps from a closed surface to an infinite ladder surface.
result Existence and properties of pseudo-Anosov-like maps on the infinite ladder surface.
Proposes PEID for analyzing synergistic causation in complex systems.
problem Challenges in identifying and analyzing synergistic causation in complex systems.
method Partial Effective Information Decomposition (PEID) framework.
result Unified and computable characterization of synergistic causal relations.
The full causal ladder of spacetimes is constructed, and their updated main properties are developed. Old concepts and alternative definitions of each level of the ladder are revisited, with emphasis in minimum hypotheses. The implications of the recently solved ``folk questions on smoothability'', and alternative prop…
AI needs causal inference to avoid being just a correlation machine.
problem AI's inability to distinguish correlation from causation.
method Develops a unified framework connecting various causal statistical estimators and proves a Statistical Necessity Theorem for causal generalization.
result AI systems without causal grounding are brittle and biased, highlighting the need for causal statistics.
Method solves Gaussian graphical models on ladder graphs efficiently.
problem Solving Gaussian graphical models on ladder graphs efficiently.
method Proposes a method that depends on the position of zeros in local covariance matrices.
result Efficiently solves Gaussian graphical models on ladder graphs under certain conditions.
We propose a recurrent extension of the Ladder networks whose structure is motivated by the inference required in hierarchical latent variable models. We demonstrate that the recurrent Ladder is able to handle a wide variety of complex learning tasks that benefit from iterative inference and temporal modeling. The arch…
New method tightens bounds on causation probabilities using independent datasets.
problem Challenging point identification of causation probabilities without strong assumptions.
method Imposes counterfactual consistency between SCMs constructed from independent datasets and uses conditional mutual information.
result Significantly tighter bounds on causation probabilities are established.
This paper introduces a new market making approach using scaled beta distributions.
problem Inventory management challenges faced by market makers.
method Scaled beta distribution policies for flexible market making actions.
result Flexibility in volume distribution across price intervals improves market making performance.
Critiques causal reductionism in financial studies, suggesting alternative approaches.
problem Limitations of unidirectional causation in self-referencing systems like finance.
method Critical assessment of causal inference in empirical finance, using ecological models.
result Current financial tools may be limited to ex post inference, especially in reflexive contexts.
Variational Autoencoders are powerful models for unsupervised learning. However deep models with several layers of dependent stochastic variables are difficult to train which limits the improvements obtained using these highly expressive models. We propose a new inference model, the Ladder Variational Autoencoder, that…
Chain-ladder reserving is sensitive to outliers, leading to unreliable estimates.
problem Sensitivity of loss reserving techniques to outliers.
method Derivation of impact functions for reserves and mean squared errors of prediction under Mack's Model.
result Impact of outliers varies widely in a loss triangle and depends on other cells.
Study shows gaps in Bitcoin order book are linked to returns but only in the short term.
problem Understanding the relationship between gaps and returns in Bitcoin order books.
method Examined the dynamics of gaps and returns in a Bitcoin order book without considering long-term causation.
result The causal relationship between gaps and returns is limited to instantaneous causation.
We combine supervised learning with unsupervised learning in deep neural networks. The proposed model is trained to simultaneously minimize the sum of supervised and unsupervised cost functions by backpropagation, avoiding the need for layer-wise pre-training. Our work builds on the Ladder network proposed by Valpola (…
We prove that the HOMFLYPT polynomial of a link, colored by partitions with a fixed number of rows is a q-holonomic function. Specializing to the case of knots colored by a partition with a single row, it proves the existence of an (a,q) super-polynomial of knots in 3-space, as was conjectured by string theorists. …
Over the past half-century, the empirical finance community has produced vast literature on the advantages of the equally weighted S\&P 500 portfolio as well as the often overlooked disadvantages of the market capitalization weighted Standard and Poor's (S\&P 500) portfolio (see \cite{Bloom}, \cite{Uppal}, \cite{Jacobs…
The leaderboard in machine learning competitions is a tool to show the performance of various participants and to compare them. However, the leaderboard quickly becomes no longer accurate, due to hack or overfitting. This article gives two pieces of advice to prevent easy hack or overfitting. By following these advice,…
The use of unsupervised data in addition to supervised data in training discriminative neural networks has improved the performance of this clas- sification scheme. However, the best results were achieved with a training process that is divided in two parts: first an unsupervised pre-training step is done for initializ…
New method simplifies individual claims reserving.
problem Insufficient flexibility and robustness in existing methods.
method Building on classical chain-ladder method, introduces new perspective.
result Advances toward a new standard for micro-level reserving.
New pricing framework allocates costs of operating reserves and transmission.
problem Allocating costs of operating reserves and transmission efficiently.
method Causation-based framework using contingency-constrained scheduling models.
result More comprehensive and efficient cost-reflective market operations.
Paper proposes learning causal graphs with only relevant variables.
problem Discovering causal relationships in large-scale graphs often includes irrelevant variables.
method Developed NSCSL algorithm to learn necessary and sufficient causal graphs (NSCG).
result NSCSL algorithm identifies relevant causal features for specific outcomes.
AI models forget statistics' lesson: correlation doesn't imply causation.
problem AI models often produce flawed causal models due to ignoring correlation vs causation.
method Demonstrates examples of flawed AI models and proposes rethinking core models.
result Current efforts to make AI models ethical are insufficient.
This work defines a new function space for multi-layer neural networks.
problem Characterizing the function space of multi-layer neural networks.
method Defining a neural Hilbert ladder (NHL) as an infinite union of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs).
result Established theoretical properties of the new function space, including generalization guarantees and dynamics of random fields.
Paper proposes robust methods to detect and treat outliers in multivariate loss reserving.
problem Distortion of traditional reserving techniques by outliers in past claims data.
method Two robust bivariate chain-ladder techniques: Adjusted Outlyingness and Bagdistance.
result Improved accuracy in estimating outstanding claim liabilities through robust methods.
A simple guide to understanding hierarchical causality in complex systems.
problem Understanding hierarchical causality in complex systems.
method Formalizing hierarchical causality in terms of actors and agents, with three key structures.
result The system requires three additional structures: causation classes, aggregation operators, and discrete event-time maps.
New method for individual claims reserving using machine learning.
problem Traditional claims reserving methods are limited in individual claim prediction.
method Restructured data utilization for CL prediction, using multi-period factors.
result Neural networks applied for individual claims reserving.
We describe the geometrical ladder of equations for Abelian bundles and gerbes, as well as higher generalisations, in terms of the cohomology of an operator that combines de Rham and Cech cohomology.
Neural Shadow-Mapping uncovers causal links in dynamic systems.
problem Discovering causal structures in dynamic systems with mirage correlations.
method Neural network based method embedding high-dimensional data into a shadow representation for causal link estimation.
result Demonstrates performance in discovering causal links from video-representations of dynamic systems.
We are interested in learning causal relationships between pairs of random variables, purely from observational data. To effectively address this task, the state-of-the-art relies on strong assumptions regarding the mechanisms mapping causes to effects, such as invertibility or the existence of additive noise, which on…
We present the Video Ladder Network (VLN) for efficiently generating future video frames. VLN is a neural encoder-decoder model augmented at all layers by both recurrent and feedforward lateral connections. At each layer, these connections form a lateral recurrent residual block, where the feedforward connection repres…
The paper explores Finsler-type objects and their variational problems on spacetimes.
problem Generalizing Einstein equations to the Finsler setting.
method Study of the ladder of Finsler-type objects and their variational problems.
result Application of the ladder structure to variational proposals for Finsler spacetimes.
The paper introduces a test to distinguish spatial graphs based on their knot diagrams.
problem Distinguishing isotopic spatial graphs from diagrams.
method Using the writhe of knot diagrams from cycles in the graph.
result A necessary condition for distinguishing isotopic spatial graphs.