arXiv research

The paper bounds and identifies joint probabilities in causal inference with monotonicity assumptions.

This work proposes a new method to estimate joint probability from pairwise marginals, reducing sample complexity.

FJS method improves multinomial classification accuracy.

Estimates joint probability distribution from 1-way marginals using low-rank tensors and random projections.

Novel approach for estimating joint probability densities using tensor decompositions and dictionaries.

Develops a new framework for estimating joint probability distributions.

Maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) has been widely adopted in domain adaptation to measure the discrepancy between the source and target domain distributions. Many existing domain adaptation approaches are based on the joint MMD, which is computed as the (weighted) sum of the marginal distribution discrepancy and the condi…

Method estimates joint probability density from samples using low-rank decomposition and random projections.

First passage models, where corporate assets undergo correlated random walks and a company defaults if its assets fall below a threshold provide an attractive framework for modeling the default process. Typical one year default correlations are small, i.e., of order a few percent, but nonetheless including correlations…

Proposes a new model to better handle correlation risk in credit risk calculations.

Proposes IPT for modeling complex joint distributions.

Quantum probability theory reveals hidden structure in joint probability distributions.

SJS model predicts label shifts in multinomial datasets.

We analyse time series of CDS spreads for a set of major US and European institutions on a pe- riod overlapping the recent financial crisis. We extend the existing methodology of ε-drawdowns to the one of joint ε-drawups, in order to estimate the conditional probabilities of abrupt co-movements among spreads. We correc…

Instantaneous volatility of logarithmic return in the lognormal fractional SABR model is driven by the exponentiation of a correlated fractional Brownian motion. Due to the mixed nature of driving Brownian and fractional Brownian motions, probability density for such a model is less studied in the literature. We show i…

An important application of Lebesgue integral quadrature arXiv:1807.06007 is developed. Given two random processes, $f(x)$ and $g(x)$, two generalized eigenvalue problems can be formulated and solved. In addition to obtaining two Lebesgue quadratures (for $f$ and $g$) from two eigenproblems, the projections of $f$- and…

Study improves probabilistic circuits using transformations for better predictions.

This work extends stochastic localization to joint probability measures for data analysis.

We present a novel approach for estimating conditional probability tables, based on a joint, rather than independent, estimate of the conditional distributions belonging to the same table. We derive exact analytical expressions for the estimators and we analyse their properties both analytically and via simulation. We …

A central tenet of probabilistic programming is that a model is specified exactly once in a canonical representation which is usable by inference algorithms. We describe JointDistributions, a family of declarative representations of directed graphical models in TensorFlow Probability.

The paper analyzes multivariate Hawkes processes and their induced population processes.

JES optimizes expensive functions by considering joint entropy over input and output spaces.

Estimating the joint probability mass function (PMF) of a set of random variables lies at the heart of statistical learning and signal processing. Without structural assumptions, such as modeling the variables as a Markov chain, tree, or other graphical model, joint PMF estimation is often considered mission impossible…

We provide a distribution-free test that can be used to determine whether any two joint distributions $p$ and $q$ are statistically different by inspection of a large enough set of samples. Following recent efforts from Long et al. [1], we rely on joint kernel distribution embedding to extend the kernel two-sample test…

Missing data and noisy observations pose significant challenges for reliably predicting events from irregularly sampled multivariate time series (longitudinal) data. Imputation methods, which are typically used for completing the data prior to event prediction, lack a principled mechanism to account for the uncertainty…

Introduces joint exclusivity (JE), a new form of negative dependence.

Proposes a new model for joint probability distributions in computer vision.

Proposes methods to estimate posterior probability and propensity score functions without assuming constant propensity score.

There has been a lot of recent interest in designing neural network models to estimate a distribution from a set of examples. We introduce a simple modification for autoencoder neural networks that yields powerful generative models. Our method masks the autoencoder's parameters to respect autoregressive constraints: ea…

The most direct way to express arbitrary dependencies in datasets is to estimate the joint distribution and to apply afterwards the argmax-function to obtain the mode of the corresponding conditional distribution. This method is in practice difficult, because it requires a global optimization of a complicated function,…

This paper presents a Bayesian method for estimating the rank of a low-rank tensor model of joint PMF.

The paper proposes a method to estimate joint probability from unpaired data using entropic transport kernels.

There has recently been considerable interest in completing a low-rank matrix or tensor given only a small fraction (or few linear combinations) of its entries. Related approaches have found considerable success in the area of recommender systems, under machine learning. From a statistical estimation point of view, the…

Protein contacts contain important information for protein structure and functional study, but contact prediction from sequence remains very challenging. Both evolutionary coupling (EC) analysis and supervised machine learning methods are developed to predict contacts, making use of different types of information, resp…

Sequences have become first class citizens in supervised learning thanks to the resurgence of recurrent neural networks. Many complex tasks that require mapping from or to a sequence of observations can now be formulated with the sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) framework which employs the chain rule to efficiently repre…

DynForest predicts event probabilities from longitudinal data, handling endogenous predictors.

We characterize the set of market models when there are a finite number of traded Vanilla and Barrier options with maturity $T$ written on the asset $S$. From a probabilistic perspective, our result describes the set of joint distributions for $(S_T, \sup_{u \leq T} S_u)$ when a finite number of marginal law constraint…

The problem of determining the joint probability distributions for correlated random variables with pre-specified marginals is considered. When the joint distribution satisfying all the required conditions is not unique, the "most unbiased" choice corresponds to the distribution of maximum entropy. The calculation of t…

There are many advantages to use probability method for nonlinear system identification, such as the noises and outliers in the data set do not affect the probability models significantly; the input features can be extracted in probability forms. The biggest obstacle of the probability model is the probability distribu…

GFlowNets sample diverse candidates in active learning.

New method selects features via tensor decomposition and submodular optimization.

Multi-label classification aims to classify instances with discrete non-exclusive labels. Most approaches on multi-label classification focus on effective adaptation or transformation of existing binary and multi-class learning approaches but fail in modelling the joint probability of labels or do not preserve generali…

MPSTime uses matrix-product states for efficient time-series ML.

Paper estimates AI hallucinations in conditional generation tasks.

The paper examines how heavy-tailed risks behave under Gaussian copula models.

Categorical d-separation criterion simplifies probability graph analysis.

The ability to estimate joint, conditional and marginal probability distributions over some set of variables is of great utility for many common machine learning tasks. However, estimating these distributions can be challenging, particularly in the case of data containing a mix of discrete and continuous variables. Thi…

A new framework models multi-state events and biomarkers.