This work gives an in-depth derivation of the trainable evidence lower bound obtained from the marginal joint log-Likelihood with the goal of training a Multi-Modal Variational Autoencoder (MVAE).
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48 results for “joint likelihood”
Due to the intractable partition function, the exact likelihood function for a Markov random field (MRF), in many situations, can only be approximated. Major approximation approaches include pseudolikelihood and Laplace approximation. In this paper, we propose a novel way of approximating the likelihood function throug…
We have developed an efficient algorithm for the maximum likelihood joint tracking and association problem in a strong clutter for GMTI data. By using an iterative procedure of the dynamic logic process "from vague-to-crisp," the new tracker overcomes combinatorial complexity of tracking in highly-cluttered scenarios a…
We extend recent work (Brehmer, et. al., 2018) that use neural networks as surrogate models for likelihood-free inference. As in the previous work, we exploit the fact that the joint likelihood ratio and joint score, conditioned on both observed and latent variables, can often be extracted from an implicit generative m…
Joint Stochastic Approximation and Its Application to Learning Discrete Latent Variable Modelsstat.ML
New method uses joint stochastic approximation to improve learning of discrete latent models.
problem Challenges in learning discrete latent variable models, especially with inference model gradients and log-likelihood optimization.
method Proposes a new method based on stochastic approximation theory that directly maximizes the target log-likelihood and minimizes the posterior-inference model divergence.
result Consistently outperforms recent competitive algorithms in generative modeling and structured prediction tasks.
Adaptive Gaussian process approximation for Bayesian inference with expensive likelihood functionsstat.CO
We consider Bayesian inference problems with computationally intensive likelihood functions. We propose a Gaussian process (GP) based method to approximate the joint distribution of the unknown parameters and the data. In particular, we write the joint density approximately as a product of an approximate posterior dens…
I consider two problems in machine learning and statistics: the problem of estimating the joint probability density of a collection of random variables, known as density estimation, and the problem of inferring model parameters when their likelihood is intractable, known as likelihood-free inference. The contribution o…
Estimates network topologies from shared graphon models across different networks.
problem Estimating the topology of multiple networks from nodal observations.
method Combining maximum likelihood penalty with graphon estimation schemes.
result Validated performance against competing methods in synthetic and real-world datasets.
New model generates graphs with tighter likelihood bounds and better quality.
problem Intractable likelihood of autoregressive graph models.
method Derive exact joint probability, approximate node orderings, variational inference.
result Lower bound on log-likelihood is significantly tighter than previous methods.
Simulators often provide the best description of real-world phenomena. However, they also lead to challenging inverse problems because the density they implicitly define is often intractable. We present a new suite of simulation-based inference techniques that go beyond the traditional Approximate Bayesian Computation …
Proposes methods to estimate posterior probability and propensity score functions without assuming constant propensity score.
problem Learning from biased positive-unlabeled data.
method Parametric approach to joint estimation of posterior probability and propensity score functions using maximum likelihood and alternating maximization.
result Proposed methods are comparable or better than existing methods based on Expectation-Maximisation scheme.
A Bayesian Long Short-Term Memory Model for Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall Joint Forecastingstat.ML
Bayesian LSTM model improves VaR and ES forecasting accuracy.
problem Joint forecasting of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES).
method Hybrid model combining LSTM for time series dynamics and Asymmetric Laplace quasi-likelihood for joint likelihood.
result The LSTM-AL model outperforms existing models in VaR and ES forecasting accuracy.
Paper explores supervised learning methods to approximate ideal observer for joint signal detection and localization.
problem Optimizing medical imaging systems by assessing their performance using the Ideal Observer model.
method Uses supervised learning methods, specifically convolutional neural networks, to approximate the Ideal Observer for joint signal detection and localization tasks.
result Supervised learning-based methods can approximate the Ideal Observer for joint signal detection and localization tasks, as shown by comparisons to MCMC and analytical methods.
The joint PLDA model, is a generalization of PLDA where the nuisance variable is no longer considered independent across samples, but potentially shared (tied) across samples that correspond to the same nuisance condition. The original work considered a single nuisance condition, deriving the EM and scoring formulas fo…
Paper proposes methods to learn sub-manifolds and estimate densities in normalizing flows.
problem Normalizing flows struggle with finding sub-manifolds in high-dimensional data.
method Introduces per-pixel penalized log-likelihood and hierarchical training approaches.
result Validated superior performance in manifold learning and density estimation.
New method estimates HMM hidden states efficiently.
problem Inaccurate posterior predictive distribution in HMMs.
method Autoregressive-flow for estimating hidden states.
result Estimates comparable to SMC algorithm.
Optimizing full likelihoods adapts loss scales and shapes for robust modeling.
problem Rigid loss functions limit model adaptability and robustness.
method Optimize full likelihoods with adjustable parameters.
result Adaptive tuning of loss scales and shapes improves model robustness.
Given a set of possible models (e.g., Bayesian network structures) and a data sample, in the unsupervised model selection problem the task is to choose the most accurate model with respect to the domain joint probability distribution. In contrast to this, in supervised model selection it is a priori known that the chos…
A new model forecasts financial risks using multiple realized measures.
problem Forecasting financial risks using multiple realized measures.
method Developed a semi-parametric joint VaR and ES forecasting framework using realized measures.
result The proposed model outperformed other models in forecasting financial risks.
Graphical models with bi-directed edges (<->) represent marginal independence: the absence of an edge between two vertices indicates that the corresponding variables are marginally independent. In this paper, we consider maximum likelihood estimation in the case of continuous variables with a Gaussian joint distributio…
Given a set of possible models (e.g., Bayesian network structures) and a data sample, in the unsupervised model selection problem the task is to choose the most accurate model with respect to the domain joint probability distribution. In contrast to this, in supervised model selection it is a priori known that the chos…
We introduce the Mutual Information Machine (MIM), a probabilistic auto-encoder for learning joint distributions over observations and latent variables. MIM reflects three design principles: 1) low divergence, to encourage the encoder and decoder to learn consistent factorizations of the same underlying distribution; 2…
Proposes a deep neural network for predicting clustered time-to-event data.
problem Predicting clustered time-to-event data with subject-specific frailties.
method Deep neural network based gamma frailty model (DNN-FM) trained using negative profiled h-likelihood.
result Enhances prediction performance compared to existing methods.
Estimates multiple networks using graphons for non-aligned graphs.
problem Estimating topology of multiple networks from nodal observations.
method Combining maximum likelihood penalty with graphon estimation schemes.
result Validated performance against competing methods in synthetic and real-world datasets.
Though with progress, model learning and performing posterior inference still remains a common challenge for using deep generative models, especially for handling discrete hidden variables. This paper is mainly concerned with algorithms for learning Helmholz machines, which is characterized by pairing the generative mo…
In spite of the recent surge of interest in quantile regression, joint estimation of linear quantile planes remains a great challenge in statistics and econometrics. We propose a novel parametrization that characterizes any collection of non-crossing quantile planes over arbitrarily shaped convex predictor domains in a…
VJE learns latent representations without contrastive learning, providing probabilistic semantics.
problem Learning latent representations without contrastive signals.
method VJE maximizes a symmetric conditional evidence lower bound (ELBO) on paired encoder embeddings, using a Student-t distribution on a polar representation.
result VJE outperforms standard non-contrastive baselines in ImageNet-1K, CIFAR-10/100, and STL-10.
Jointly learns feature and sample relevancies for robust sparse recovery.
problem Sparse recovery sensitivity to data contaminants like outliers or misspecified noise.
method Jointly learns feature and sample relevancies via marginal likelihood optimization.
result Consistent sparse and robust prediction models across diverse tasks.
Bayesian method infers contextual bandit policies robustly.
problem Inference of contextual bandit policies in small sample sizes.
method Empirical likelihood for Bayesian inference.
result Accurate uncertainty measurements and policy comparison.
ProJIVE integrates multiple data types to explain joint and individual variation.
problem Integrating multiple types of data on the same subjects.
method Probabilistic EM algorithm for JIVE framework.
result ProJIVE learns biologically meaningful courses of variation and improves accuracy.
Estimates effects of multiple interventions with hidden confounders using single-variable interventions.
problem Estimating effects of multiple interventions in the presence of hidden confounders.
method Identifiability under nonlinear structural causal model with additive Gaussian noise; pooling and joint likelihood maximization.
result Proven identifiability and superior performance compared to baseline.
Estimates multiple related causal graphs with shared causal order.
problem Discovering multiple related Gaussian DAGs with shared causal order.
method Proposes a -regularized MLE for joint estimation of linear structural equation models.
result Joint estimator achieves better sample complexity and consistency in causal order recovery.
Multi-Entity Dependence Learning (MEDL) explores conditional correlations among multiple entities. The availability of rich contextual information requires a nimble learning scheme that tightly integrates with deep neural networks and has the ability to capture correlation structures among exponentially many outcomes. …
Estimating statistical models within sensor networks requires distributed algorithms, in which both data and computation are distributed across the nodes of the network. We propose a general approach for distributed learning based on combining local estimators defined by pseudo-likelihood components, encompassing a num…
In Bayesian statistics, the marginal likelihood, also known as the evidence, is used to evaluate model fit as it quantifies the joint probability of the data under the prior. In contrast, non-Bayesian models are typically compared using cross-validation on held-out data, either through -fold partitioning or leave-$p…
Multi-task learning is a method for improving the generalizability of multiple tasks. In order to perform multiple classification tasks with one neural network model, the losses of each task should be combined. Previous studies have mostly focused on multiple prediction tasks using joint loss with static weights for tr…
Connectionist temporal classification (CTC) is widely used for maximum likelihood learning in end-to-end speech recognition models. However, there is usually a disparity between the negative maximum likelihood and the performance metric used in speech recognition, e.g., word error rate (WER). This results in a mismatch…
SNPLA uses normalizing flows for efficient inference in implicit models.
problem Efficient inference in implicit models with complex likelihood and posterior learning.
method Sequential Neural Posterior and Likelihood Approximation (SNPLA) algorithm using normalizing flows.
result SNPLA achieves competitive performance with faster posterior draws compared to MCMC methods.
Improving Bi-directional Generation between Different Modalities with Variational Autoencodersstat.ML
We investigate deep generative models that can exchange multiple modalities bi-directionally, e.g., generating images from corresponding texts and vice versa. A major approach to achieve this objective is to train a model that integrates all the information of different modalities into a joint representation and then t…
We introduce the multiresolution recurrent neural network, which extends the sequence-to-sequence framework to model natural language generation as two parallel discrete stochastic processes: a sequence of high-level coarse tokens, and a sequence of natural language tokens. There are many ways to estimate or learn the …
We describe a method for parameter estimation in bipartite probabilistic graphical models for joint prediction of clinical conditions from the electronic medical record. The method does not rely on the availability of gold-standard labels, but rather uses noisy labels, called anchors, for learning. We provide a likelih…
Our work is focused on the joint sparsity recovery problem where the common sparsity pattern is corrupted by Poisson noise. We formulate the confidence-constrained optimization problem in both least squares (LS) and maximum likelihood (ML) frameworks and study the conditions for perfect reconstruction of the original r…
JANA trains networks to approximate Bayesian models efficiently.
problem Intractable likelihood functions and posterior densities in Bayesian models.
method End-to-end training of three networks: summary, posterior, and likelihood networks.
result JANA provides accurate amortized marginal likelihood and posterior predictive estimation.
FNFs model parameter-dependent densities by combining a fixed flow with a polynomial parameter-dependent transformation.
problem Learning a separate flow for every parameter configuration is intractable.
method Factorizable Normalizing Flows (FNFs) represent the parameter-dependent density as a fixed flow for a reference configuration and a learnable polynomial transformation factorized over parameters.
result FNFs enable the recovery of the combined effect of multiple parameters without sampling their joint space, providing a scalable and interpretable solution.
New JSA autoencoders tackle discrete latent variable models for semi-supervised learning.
problem Handling discrete observations and latent codes in deep generative models.
method Joint-stochastic-approximation (JSA) autoencoders that directly maximize data log-likelihood and minimize KL divergence.
result JSA autoencoders achieve comparable performance to continuous latent space models in semi-supervised tasks.
Joint Models for longitudinal and time-to-event data have gained a lot of attention in the last few years as they are a helpful technique to approach common a data structure in clinical studies where longitudinal outcomes are recorded alongside event times. Those two processes are often linked and the two outcomes shou…
A new framework models multi-state events and biomarkers.
problem Limited representation of complex multi-state trajectories.
method General multi-state joint modeling framework.
result Accurate parameter recovery and personalized predictions.
A new framework CyGen models joint distributions using cyclic conditionals.
problem Modeling a joint distribution using only two conditional models without relying on an uninformative prior.
method Developed a general theory for operable equivalence criteria for compatibility and sufficient conditions for determinacy. Proposed CyGen framework and methods to achieve compatibility and determinacy.
result CyGen better fits data and captures more representative features compared to models using an uninformative prior.