In this paper, we present a multi-period trading model by assuming that traders face not only asymmetric information but also heterogenous prior beliefs, under the requirement that the insider publicly disclose his stock trades after the fact. We show that there is an equilibrium in which the irrational insider camoufl…
A network-based approach identifies financial factors from asset interactions, explaining market dynamics.
problem Characterizing joint financial asset behavior through underlying drivers.
method Modeling market as coupled iterated maps, where asset returns depend on past returns and interactions.
result Stable patterns of co-movement (financial factors) emerge from asset interactions, explaining asset variance.
Study tiling spaces over irrational tori using diffeological classification.
problem Understanding the structure of tiling spaces over irrational tori.
method Diffeological classification of irrational tori and analysis of fiber bundle structures.
result Inherited diffeological equivalence of one-dimensional tiling spaces over irrational tori.
We describe Veech groups of flat surfaces arising from irrational angled polygonal billiards or irreducible stable abelian differentials. For irrational polygonal billiards, we prove that these groups are non-discrete subgroups of SO(2,R) and we calculate their rank.
Following a Geometrical Brownian Motion extension into an Irrational Fractional Brownian Motion model, we re-examine agent behaviour reacting to time dependent news on the log-returns thereby modifying a financial market evolution. We specifically discuss the role of financial news or economic information positive or n…
Study irrational pencils on complex manifolds, finding non-finitely generated homology.
problem Understanding the homology of the kernel induced by irrational pencils on complex manifolds.
method Analyzing critical points and homology of fundamental groups of complex manifolds.
result Homology of the kernel of the morphism induced by the pencil on fundamental groups is not finitely generated.
Study symplectic and Hamiltonian actions on irrational ruled surfaces, proving existence and non-existence of extensions.
problem Tackles the extension of symplectic and Hamiltonian cyclic actions to Hamiltonian circle actions on irrational ruled symplectic 4-manifolds.
method Constructs symplectic involutions and cyclic actions, classifies symplectic morphisms, and proves non-extendability of certain actions.
result Shows existence and non-existence of Hamiltonian circle actions for different cyclic actions on irrational ruled symplectic 4-manifolds.
We show that the Novikov-Shubin invariant of an element of the integral group ring of the lamplighter group Z_2 \wr Z can be irrational. This disproves a conjecture of Lott and Lueck. Furthermore we show that every positive real number is equal to the Novikov-Shubin invariant of some element of the real group ring of Z…
Study irrational rotations and construct 2-filling rays on infinite type surfaces.
problem Understanding dense orbits in skew product transformations.
method Skew product transformation with continued fraction analysis.
result Existence of infinite cliques of 2-filling rays on infinite type surfaces.
We prove that there are examples of finitely generated groups G together with group ring elements Q \in \bbQ G for which the von Neumann dimension \dim_{LG}\ker Q is irrational, so (in conjunction with other known results) answering a question of Atiyah.
We study the structure of the stable norm of Finsler metrics on the 2-torus with a focus to points of irrational slope. By our results, the stable norm detects KAM-tori and hyperbolicity in the geodesic flow. Moreover, we study the stable norm in some natural examples.
We give examples of finitely presented groups containing elements with irrational (in fact, transcendental) stable commutator length, thus answering in the negative a question of M. Gromov. Our examples come from 1-dimensional dynamics, and are related to the generalized Thompson groups studied by M. Stein, I. Liousse …
New coefficient detects irrational rotation behavior on infinite-type surfaces.
problem Detecting irrational rotation behavior on surfaces of infinite type.
method Introducing a new quasimorphism, the Dehn twist coefficient, and proving its properties.
result The Dehn twist coefficient can have image all of R for some infinite-type surfaces.
Estimates dimensions of maximal simplices for rational and irrational trees in Outer space.
problem Understanding the structure of trees in Outer space.
method Associate simplices to R-trees and estimate their dimensions. result Estimates the dimensions of maximal simplices for both rational and irrational trees.
A new platform models how narratives influence financial markets.
problem Explaining irrational market behaviors through narratives.
method Integrated opinion dynamics and agent-based modeling.
result Initial results show how narratives shape financial outcomes.
In this paper, we prove that on every Finsler n-sphere (Sn,F) for n≥6 with reversibility λ and flag curvature K satisfying (λ+1λ)2<K≤1, either there exist infinitely many prime closed geodesics or there exist [2n]−2 closed geodesics possessing irrational average indices. If in add…
We study the geometry of the Margulis region associated with an irrational screw translation g acting on the 4-dimensional real hyperbolic space. This is an invariant domain with the parabolic fixed point of g on its boundary which plays the role of an invariant horoball for a translation in dimensions ≤3. Th…
Modeling preference rankings with salient features to explain irrational choices.
problem Estimating rankings from noisy pairwise comparisons with irrational choices.
method Salient feature preference model with maximum likelihood estimation.
result Strong performance of maximum likelihood estimation on synthetic and real data.
Standard economic theory assumes that agents in markets behave rationally. However, the observation of extremely large fluctuations in the price of financial assets that are not correlated to changes in their fundamental value, as well as the extreme instance of financial bubbles and crashes, imply that markets (at lea…
Given a discrete subgroup of the isometries of n-dimensional hyperbolic space there is always a region kept precisely invariant under the stabilizer of a parabolic fixed point, called the Margulis region. While in dimensions 2 and 3 this region is a horoball, it has in general a more complicated shape due to the existe…
Study shows HFT benefits large traders under certain conditions.
problem Influence of high-frequency traders (HFTs) on large traders.
method Analyzes the impact of HFT front-running on large traders under different conditions.
result HFT benefits large traders when there is high-speed noise trading and vague HFT predictions.
Investigates market dynamics with informed traders and high-frequency traders.
problem Trading large orders in a market with multiple high-frequency traders.
method Analyzes a three-period Kyle's model with a normal-speed informed trader and multiple anticipatory high-frequency traders under different inventory pressures.
result Surprising results: improving HFTs' speed or prediction can harm them but benefit the informed trader.
We develop a model to study the role of rationality in economics and biology. The model's agents differ continuously in their ability to make rational choices. The agents' objective is to ensure their individual survival over time or, equivalently, to maximize profits. In equilibrium, however, rational agents who maxim…
Researchers calculate Morse index and nullity for two specific minimal hypersurfaces.
problem Calculating Morse index and nullity for homogeneous minimal hypersurfaces with g=4 or 6. method Analyzing two specific homogeneous minimal hypersurfaces in Sn with g=4. result Obtained irrational eigenvalues in Laplace spectra for the two hypersurfaces.
We introduce a framework for coverings of noncommutative spaces. Moreover, we study noncommutative coverings of irrational quantum tori and characterize all such coverings that are connected in a reasonable sense.
The paper extends option pricing theory for markets with informed traders.
problem Discontinuity in option pricing for markets with informed traders.
method New models for option pricing in complete markets considering informed traders' information on stock price direction and return mean.
result The discontinuity puzzle in option pricing is resolved using continuous diffusion price processes.
An informed broker optimizes trading strategies in a market influenced by many traders.
problem Optimizing trading strategies for an informed broker in a market with many traders.
method Developed a mean-field game approach to derive equilibrium strategies for both the broker and traders.
result The broker's optimal strategy involves a Stackelberg equilibrium, leading and traders following.
Study Nash equilibrium between broker and trader in a lit exchange with price impact.
problem Optimizing trading strategies between informed and uninformed traders with broker's inventory penalties.
method Characterized Nash equilibrium through FBSDEs, solved explicitly.
result Explicit solution to trading strategies of broker and informed trader.
PRZI traders adapt their quote-prices based on a strategy parameter s, affecting market dynamics.
problem Understanding the dynamics of continuous double auction markets with adaptive traders.
method Introduced a new zero-intelligence trader PRZI that uses a parameterised probability distribution to generate quote-prices. Used a stochastic hill-climber algorithm to adapt strategies based on market conditions.
result The co-evolutionary dynamics of PRZI traders can lead to rich and complex market behaviors, including periods of stability and change.
Study shows unique linear equilibrium in market with constrained trader.
problem Unique equilibrium in financial market with constrained trader.
method Linear equilibrium model with competitive market makers and noise traders.
result Equilibrium uniquely determined by two state variables.
Modeling market dynamics with informed and uninformed traders and fads.
problem Optimizing market making in a market with fads, informed, and uninformed traders.
method Characterizing the optimal liquidity provision problem in a market with fads, informed, and uninformed traders, considering both complete and partial information.
result The price of liquidity is a function of the proportion of informed traders, and strategies ignoring fads underperform.
Solves a game between brokers and informed traders using stochastic differential equations.
problem Optimizing wealth in a game between brokers and informed traders with private signals.
method Closed-form solutions to a mean-field game using forward-backward SDEs.
result Optimal trading strategies for both brokers and informed traders are found.
High-frequency traders can act as either small informed traders or round-trippers, affecting price discovery and liquidity.
problem Effects of high-frequency trading on price discovery and liquidity.
method Extended Kyle's model with interactions between large informed traders and high-frequency traders.
result High-frequency traders can act as Small-IT or Round-Tripper, impacting price discovery and liquidity.
Traders underestimated risk-free rates, leading to poor investments.
problem Incorrect setting of risk-free rates by traders.
method Analysis of investment decisions and financial models.
result Underestimating risk-free rates led to flawed investment decisions.
Model shows how multiple markets can coexist or fragment based on trader behavior.
problem Understanding market competition and coexistence among multiple trading venues.
method Stylized model of traders making repeated decisions at three markets, analyzed numerically and analytically.
result Parameters like memory length and choice intensity determine whether markets coexist or fragment.
We report successful results from using deep learning neural networks (DLNNs) to learn, purely by observation, the behavior of profitable traders in an electronic market closely modelled on the limit-order-book (LOB) market mechanisms that are commonly found in the real-world global financial markets for equities (stoc…
Brokers and an informed trader compete for liquidity, affecting trading costs and inventory risk.
problem How brokers and an informed trader manage liquidity and trading costs.
method Sequential Stackelberg game, solving for trading strategies, numerical solutions.
result Equilibrium strategies and liquidity prices determined, not Pareto efficient.
Study a market with uncertain informed traders, finding price impact depends on both asset value and informed trader count distribution.
problem Uncertain participation of informed traders in a market with limit orders.
method Characterized equilibrium by a fixed point integral equation, analyzed large order asymptotics, solved numerically.
result Equilibrium price impact depends on both asset value and distribution of informed traders, not just expected number of informed traders.
Strategic brokers exploit private information in broker-mediated markets, affecting informed traders' performance.
problem Strategic interactions and information leakage in broker-mediated markets.
method Study of strategic trading behavior and information leakage in a broker-mediated market.
result Brokers hold a strategic advantage over informed traders due to information leakage in trading flows.
Maximizing trading volume in online learning framework between traders.
problem Maximizing the total number of trades between traders with unknown valuations.
method Developed algorithms for brokers to maximize trading volume under different feedback scenarios.
result Achieved logarithmic and poly-logarithmic regret rates for different feedback models.
This paper improves robot traders' market impact sensitivity.
problem Market impact in automated trading systems.
method Critiqued existing methods, introduced MLOFI, and demonstrated new algorithms.
result New imbalance-sensitive trader-agents exhibit market impact effects.
In a very simple stock market, made by only two \emph{initially equivalent} traders, we discuss how the information can affect the performance of the traders. More in detail, we first consider how the portfolios of the traders evolve in time when the market is \emph{closed}. After that, we discuss two models in which a…
This study models AI traders' impact on financial markets using a multi-agent framework.
problem Lack of a comprehensive model to assess AI traders' effects on market price formation and volatility.
method Developed a multi-agent market model with microfoundations of the GARCH model.
result Validated the model through simulations and analyzed AI traders' impact.
The study reveals traders' risk aversion and a new risk premium from market volumes.
problem Understanding traders' rationality and risk aversion from market volumes.
method Optimal Merton dynamics model to estimate average risk aversion and price of risk.
result Validation of the proposed trading strategy model on real data.
Trading strategy advantage based on information asymmetry.
problem Trading advantage due to information disparity.
method Modeling market information, analyzing risk-neutral distribution, proving value difference.
result First trader's position is strictly more valuable than the second.
Accurately predicting future behaviors of surrounding vehicles is an essential capability for autonomous vehicles in order to plan safe and feasible trajectories. The behaviors of others, however, are full of uncertainties. Both rational and irrational behaviors exist, and the autonomous vehicles need to be aware of th…
A combination of a priority queueing model and mean field theory shows the emergence of traders' swarm behavior, even when each has a subjective prediction of the market driven by a limit order book. Using a nonlinear Markov model, we analyze the dynamics of traders who select a favorable order price taking into accoun…
Study reveals patterns in trader clusters over time, improving investment predictions.
problem Managing diverse trader risk in financial services.
method Clustered trader data analyzed using Ewens' Sampling Distribution and Aggregating Algorithm (AA). Statistically Validated Networks (SVN) applied for improved results.
result Temporal distributions of trader clusters follow Ewens' Sampling Distribution, and AA can be improved with SVN.