A method for converting NIW parameters for better estimation.
problem Estimating parameters of multivariate normal distribution.
method Convergent procedure for converting mean parameters to natural parameters in NIW family.
result Maximum likelihood estimation of natural parameters from observed statistics.
The paper updates Bayesian CMA-ES with normal Wishart and proves lower expected covariance.
problem Improving the Bayesian CMA-ES algorithm with normal Wishart prior.
method Revisits Bayesian CMA-ES, proves lower expected covariance in normal Wishart, and presents a generalized model.
result Proves that the expected covariance is lower in the normal Wishart prior model due to convexity of the inverse.
Our method enforces latent independence in deep generative models using a hyperprior.
problem Unsupervised disentanglement of latent representations in deep models.
method We augment VAE with an inverse-Wishart prior to enforce statistical independence in latent dimensions.
result Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods in disentanglement and reconstruction.
We investigate the Student-t process as an alternative to the Gaussian process as a nonparametric prior over functions. We derive closed form expressions for the marginal likelihood and predictive distribution of a Student-t process, by integrating away an inverse Wishart process prior over the covariance kernel of a G…
The paper develops scalable Bayesian models for dynamic covariance matrices using Gaussian processes.
problem Modeling dynamic and heteroskedastic covariance matrices for multivariate time series.
method Gradient-based variational inference for Wishart and inverse Wishart processes, with modifications for scalability and factoring.
result The modified models can scale to high-dimensional covariance matrices and outperform multivariate GARCH in covariance forecasting.
Bayesian approach improves CMA-ES algorithm for faster convergence.
problem Improving the CMA-ES algorithm for faster convergence.
method Deriving optimal updates for CMA-ES parameters using conjugate priors.
result New versions of CMA-ES converge faster with normal-Wishart or normal-Inverse Wishart priors.
In this paper, a Bayesian inference technique based on Taylor series approximation of the logarithm of the likelihood function is presented. The proposed approximation is devised for the case, where the prior distribution belongs to the exponential family of distributions. The logarithm of the likelihood function is li…
This paper modifies the Black-Litterman model to fit a Bayesian framework.
problem Combining investors' views with historical data for optimal portfolio weights.
method Integrates investors' views as priors and uses Bayesian techniques to update the covariance matrix.
result Improved performance of the modified model on test data.
Deep kernel processes unify various models using Gram matrices and kernel functions.
problem Unified representation of various deep learning models.
method Defining deep kernel processes with progressively transformed Gram matrices and sampling from inverse Wishart distributions.
result Deep Gaussian processes, BNNs, infinite BNNs, and infinite BNNs with bottlenecks can all be written as deep kernel processes.
Paper extends Bayesian Cramér-Rao bound with geometric considerations.
problem Estimation of covariance matrices with geometric structures.
method Intrinsic Bayesian Cramér-Rao bound with Riemannian geometry.
result Performance bounds for covariance matrix estimation.
Optimal data splitting improves covariance matrix estimation in large datasets.
problem Improving large covariance matrix estimation in high-dimensional settings.
method Focus on holdout method, derive closed-form error expression, connect to eigenvalue variance.
result Optimal train-test split scales as square root of matrix dimension.
Bayesian framework improves variance component estimation in MET data.
problem Inaccurate estimation of variance components in MET data.
method Proposes a Bayesian updating framework using historical data.
result Stabilizes variance component estimation and quantifies uncertainty.
BayPrAnoMeta tackles few-shot industrial image anomaly detection with Bayesian methods.
problem Challenges in industrial image anomaly detection, especially class imbalance and scarcity of labeled samples.
method Bayesian Proto-MAML approach with probabilistic normality models and Bayesian posterior predictive likelihood.
result Consistent and significant AUROC improvements over existing methods in few-shot anomaly detection.
We propose in this work a new family of kernels for variable-length time series. Our work builds upon the vector autoregressive (VAR) model for multivariate stochastic processes: given a multivariate time series x, we consider the likelihood function p_θ(x) of different parameters θin the VAR model as features to descr…
Fast approximate inference for non-Gaussian data.
problem Efficient inference for non-Gaussian data.
method Laplace Matching for fast approximate inference in latent Gaussian models.
result Achieves high approximation quality with low computational cost.
We apply variational inference to learn vehicle trajectory parameters from noisy data.
problem Learning parameters for vehicle trajectory estimation from noisy measurements.
method Gaussian variational inference with parameter learning in a motion and sensor model context.
result High-quality state estimates achieved even with outliers and false loop closures.
Bayesian deep neural networks converge to processes with α-stable marginals under infinite variance weights.
problem Representation learning in deep kernel processes is hindered by deterministic covariance kernels.
method Showed convergence to α-stable processes with conditionally Gaussian representations in infinite-width networks.
result Conditional random covariance kernels can be recursively linked, even if the process is α-stable.
Matrix H-theory models stock market fluctuations using hierarchical multivariate distributions.
problem Understanding collective behavior in stock market fluctuations.
method Matrix H-theory framework for multivariate stochastic processes with hierarchical structure.
result Matrix H-theory effectively describes stock market fluctuations using Meijer G-functions.
Spectral portfolio theory links neural networks to wealth dynamics via SGD weight matrices.
problem Understanding wealth dynamics from neural network training.
method Direct identification of weight matrices as portfolio allocation matrices, linking SGD forces to portfolio dynamics.
result Spectral properties of SGD weight matrices transition between additive and multiplicative regimes, influencing wealth dynamics.
Paper analyzes holdout cross-validation for large non-Gaussian covariance estimation.
problem Estimating large covariance matrices for non-Gaussian data.
method Use of Weingarten calculus and Ledoit-Péché formula for theoretical error derivation.
result Optimal train-test split ratio is proportional to square root of matrix dimension.
A new Weyl prior is proposed for Bayesian statistics, offering a more canonical choice for parameter α.
problem Choosing a prior distribution for Bayesian inference.
method Proposed a new Weyl prior based on the Weyl structure on a statistical manifold.
result The Weyl prior is a special case of the α-parallel prior with α = -n, where n is the dimension of the statistical manifold.
Improves AI-prior reliability for Bayesian inference.
problem Error propagation from predictive models into posterior inference.
method Rectified AI-informed prior elicitation framework.
result Significant reduction in bias and improvement in predictive performance.
Informative Bayesian priors are often difficult to elicit, and when this is the case, modelers usually turn to noninformative or objective priors. However, objective priors such as the Jeffreys and reference priors are not tractable to derive for many models of interest. We address this issue by proposing techniques fo…
While Bayesian methods are praised for their ability to incorporate useful prior knowledge, in practice, convenient priors that allow for computationally cheap or tractable inference are commonly used. In this paper, we investigate the following question: for a given model, is it possible to compute an inference result…
Researchers derive exact priors for finite Bayesian neural networks.
problem Understanding non-Gaussian priors in finite Bayesian neural networks.
method Analytical derivation of function space priors for finite fully-connected feedforward networks.
result Exact solutions for priors of finite networks, including Meijer G-function for linear networks and mixtures for ReLU networks.
PRCD-MAP learns to trust imperfect priors in causal discovery, improving accuracy and robustness.
problem Tackles the brittle trade-off between blind trust and rejection of external priors in causal discovery.
method Proposes PRCD-MAP, a soft prior-consumption layer that assigns per-edge trust to imperfect priors and modulates regularization in a MAP objective.
result Enjoys a population-level safety guarantee and outperforms existing methods on real-world causal discovery tasks.
Bayesian metalearning improves performance in linear bandits with misspecified priors.
problem Improper priors lead to suboptimal performance in sequential decision-making.
method Proves performance bounds for metalearning priors in stochastic linear bandits and develops a metalearning algorithm.
result Metalearning can improve performance by learning the prior from multiple tasks.
The paper extends and applies a new shrinkage prior in Bayesian factor analysis.
problem Estimating the number of factors in sparse Bayesian factor analysis.
method Introduces and extends a generalized cumulative shrinkage process (CUSP) prior.
result Exchangeable spike-and-slab shrinkage priors imply increasing shrinkage as the column index increases.
Bayesian method corrects for model selection multiplicity in regression.
problem Model selection multiplicity in regression analysis.
method Developed a Bayesian prior distribution based on Holm procedure analogy.
result Adequate multiplicity correction requires sparsity not provided by recommended priors.
Review of priors in Bayesian deep learning models.
problem The importance of prior choices in Bayesian deep learning models.
method Overview of different priors and methods of learning priors from data.
result Motivate practitioners to think carefully about prior specification.
Study characterizes training and test risks for MAP regression with Gaussian priors.
problem Understanding high-dimensional behavior of regularized linear regression with informative priors.
method Maximum a posteriori (MAP) regression with Gaussian priors, using random matrix theory.
result Closed-form risk formulas reveal the bias-variance-prior tradeoff and explain double descent.
This work tackles the challenge of Bayesian deep learning by proposing a new framework for matching Gaussian process priors with neural network parameters.
problem The challenge of specifying priors over neural network parameters, which affects the induced functional prior and is uncontrolled.
method The approach involves defining functional priors using Gaussian processes and matching these priors with the functional prior of neural networks through the minimization of Wasserstein distance.
result The proposed framework offers systematic performance improvements over alternative priors and approximate Bayesian deep learning approaches.
This paper uses reference priors to improve deep learning models with unlabeled and labeled data.
problem Improving deep learning models with limited labeled data and unlabeled data from the same or related tasks.
method Develops and applies generalizations of reference priors for deep networks to exploit unlabeled and labeled data.
result Demonstrates new semi-supervised learning and pretraining methods for transfer learning.
Proposes a new prior for complex models to improve prediction accuracy.
problem Difficulty in specifying priors for complex models like neural networks.
method Predictive complexity priors defined by comparing model predictions to a reference model, transferred to parameters via change of variables.
result Improves model predictions by reducing unintuitive effects of traditional priors.
Study compares priors for ABNs to improve model accuracy.
problem Inadequate priors lead to model selection issues in ABNs.
method Simulation study with three priors: Gaussian, Student's t, and strongly informative Gaussian.
result Informative Student's t-prior performs best, mitigating Lindley's paradox.
We construct geometric shrinkage priors for Kählerian signal filters. Based on the characteristics of Kähler manifolds, an efficient and robust algorithm for finding superharmonic priors which outperform the Jeffreys prior is introduced. Several ansätze for the Bayesian predictive priors are also suggested. In particul…
Proposes NUV priors for half-space and box constraints.
problem Adding constraints to linear Gaussian models without computational cost.
method Introduces NUV representations for half-space and box constraints.
result Adds constraints to linear Gaussian models without affecting computational tractability.
Statsformer validates and adapts LLM-derived semantic priors for improved supervised learning.
problem Unreliable semantic priors from LLMs can degrade supervised learning performance.
method Adapts LLM-derived feature scores into a family of learner-specific prior-injection mechanisms, calibrating their influence using out-of-fold validation.
result Improves prediction performance by adaptively downweighting unreliable LLM priors, ensuring a guardrailed statistical learning system.
SAHMM-VAE separates sources adaptively using hidden Markov priors.
problem Unsupervised blind source separation.
method Source-wise adaptive Hidden Markov prior variational autoencoder.
result Different latent dimensions align with different source-specific temporal organizations.
Algorithm learns shared demand structure across dynamic pricing experiments.
problem Learning shared demand parameters across multiple dynamic pricing experiments.
method Meta dynamic pricing algorithm that learns prior online while solving Thompson sampling experiments.
result Algorithm achieves sublinear meta regret in experiment-rich environments.
New priors can update posteriors without re-estimating likelihoods.
problem Degradation of classification approaches when class priors change.
method Recompute posteriors using recovered likelihoods from original posteriors and new priors.
result Dynamic update of original posteriors is possible without re-estimating likelihoods.
BNNpriors library improves Bayesian neural network inference with various prior distributions.
problem Challenges in choosing good prior distributions for Bayesian neural networks.
method State-of-the-art Markov Chain Monte Carlo inference with a wide range of predefined priors.
result Facilitates foundational discoveries on the nature of the cold posterior effect.
GOAT improves attention mechanisms by learning better priors.
problem Standard attention mechanisms use a naive uniform prior, limiting flexibility and generalization.
method GOAT introduces a trainable, continuous prior that replaces the uniform assumption, maintaining compatibility with optimized kernels.
result GOAT avoids representational trade-offs and learns an extrapolatable prior that combines positional flexibility with length generalization.
Weak diffusion priors can still perform well in inverse problems.
problem Using mismatched or low-fidelity diffusion priors in inverse problems.
method Extensive experiments and theoretical analysis combining Bayesian-consistency theory and local-correlation analysis.
result Weak priors succeed when measurements are highly informative, and they fail in other regimes.
New method samples Jeffreys prior for objective Bayesian inference.
problem Sampling from Jeffreys prior is challenging.
method Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin Algorithm
result Samples can be directly used in Bayesian methods.
Optimality of TS with noninformative priors proven for Pareto model.
problem Optimality of Thompson Sampling with noninformative priors for Pareto bandits.
method Proved optimality of TS with certain probability matching priors, showed suboptimality with others, and found effectiveness of truncation procedures.
result TS with certain probability matching priors achieves optimal regret bound for Pareto model.
We study the robustness of active learning (AL) algorithms against prior misspecification: whether an algorithm achieves similar performance using a perturbed prior as compared to using the true prior. In both the average and worst cases of the maximum coverage setting, we prove that all α-approximate algorithms are …
New meta-reinforcement learning method improves performance in finite-horizon MDPs.
problem Improving meta-reinforcement learning in finite-horizon MDPs with shared optimal action-value functions.
method Proposes MTSRL and MTSRL+ algorithms with learned priors and covariance, coupled with prior-alignment technique for meta-regret guarantees.
result Achieves meta-regret guarantees with learned priors and covariance, outperforming prior-independent RL and bandit-only meta-baselines.