Market activity scales near a constant of 0.632 in intrinsic time.
problem Understanding the stability of market scaling laws.
method Modeling market directional changes as a memoryless exponential hazard process and identifying the intrinsic time scaling constant.
result The intrinsic time scaling constant is 1−1/e=0.632. Analyzes intrinsic time in financial markets, linking it to physical time.
problem Understanding the intrinsic nature of time in financial data.
method Presented an analytic relationship linking intrinsic and physical time, using empirical scaling laws.
result A novel empirical scaling law relating intrinsic time variability to overshoots.
Inference-Time Scaling can be extended to domains prone to systematic failure using intrinsic statistics.
problem Scaling inference time in domains prone to systematic failure
method Intrinsic Selection (iS), Intrinsic Particle Filtering (iPF), and Particle Distillation (dPF)
result Intrinsic Selection improves engineering design selection by 20% and pass@1 by 6.1 points on average.
We prove time series data forms a Kolmogorov space with hidden dimensions.
problem Understanding the structure of time series data.
method Defining cyclic coordinates and spinor fields in time series data.
result Time series data has hidden eight dimensions.
This paper introduces intrinsic time, a new measure of time for complex systems.
problem Traditional time measures fail to capture the dynamic nature of real-world phenomena.
method Intrinsic time uses an event-based, algorithmic framework to analyze time series data.
result Intrinsic time reveals novel structures and regularities in financial markets.
Small intrinsic scale reveals network structure.
problem Understanding the scale at which network identity is revealed.
method Defined intrinsic scale as distinguishability of subgraphs in random walks.
result Intrinsic scale is surprisingly small (7-20 vertices) across various networks.
A method uses ITD and XGBoost for precise power transformer fault diagnosis.
problem Fault diagnosis of power transformers using DGA data.
method Ranking DGA parameters by skewness, extracting ITD features, and using an XGBoost classifier.
result The method achieves over 95% accuracy in classification.
We introduce an event based framework of directional changes and overshoots to map continuous financial data into the so-called Intrinsic Network - a state based discretisation of intrinsically dissected time series. Defining a method for state contraction of Intrinsic Network, we show that it has a consistent hierarch…
The abstract explores connections between reinforcement learning, scaling, and diffusion.
problem Aligning reinforcement learning with human feedback and scaling techniques.
method Clarifying connections between reinforcement learning, scaling, and diffusion.
result Introducing a resampling approach for alignment and reward-directed diffusion models.
The Dirac field is studied in a Lyra space-time background by means of the classical Schwinger Variational Principle. We obtain the equations of motion, establish the conservation laws, and get a scale relation relating the energy-momentum and spin tensors. Such scale relation is an intrinsic property for matter fields…
eDCF estimates intrinsic dimension using local connectivity.
problem Challenges in estimating intrinsic dimension due to scale dependence.
method eDCF: a novel, scalable, and parallelizable method based on Connectivity Factor (CF).
result eDCF consistently matches leading estimators with comparable MAE and higher exact intrinsic dimension match rates.
Investment strategies differ based on short-term and long-term market time scales.
problem Identifying and understanding different time scales in stock market dynamics.
method Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Hurst Exponent analysis.
result Short-term market dynamics are random, while long-term are correlated with company fundamentals.
Mod-DeepESN improves echo state networks for complex, multi-scale tasks.
problem Efficiency in solving complex, multi-scale temporal tasks.
method Incorporates intrinsic plasticity into a modular deep echo state network architecture.
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art for time series prediction tasks.
This work introduces a protocol to automatically select the correct range of scales for meaningful Intrinsic Dimension estimation.
problem The Intrinsic Dimension (ID) varies with scale in real-world datasets, leading to erroneous results.
method The protocol selects the correct range of scales by ensuring constant density of data points.
result The method provides a robust and scale-adaptive approach to estimating meaningful Intrinsic Dimension.
Neural networks' performance scales with data size, explained by data manifold dimensionality.
problem Understanding the scaling of neural network performance with the number of parameters.
method Explained by the intrinsic dimension of the data manifold, confirmed through teacher/student framework and various datasets.
result The scaling exponent α is approximately 4 divided by the intrinsic dimension d of the data manifold.
Three training regimes found for scale-invariant neural networks on the sphere.
problem Training scale-invariant neural networks on the sphere with varying effective learning rate.
method Investigated three regimes of training: convergence, chaotic equilibrium, and divergence.
result Discovered three distinct training regimes with unique characteristics.
In the present work we investigate the multiscale nature of the correlations for high frequency data (1 minute) in different futures markets over a period of two years, starting on the 1st of January 2003 and ending on the 31st of December 2004. In particular, by using the concept of "local" Hurst exponent, we point ou…
Study shows one-dimensional location-scale-shape models are flat in Wasserstein geometry.
problem Investigating curvature in location-scale-shape models under Wasserstein metric.
method Introduced location-scale-shape model and investigated its geometry.
result Location-scale-shape model is intrinsically flat but extrinsically curved in Wasserstein geometry.
The paper identifies short-term and long-term time scales in stock markets with and without structural breaks.
problem Understanding the nature of stock markets at short-term and long-term time scales.
method Applied Zivot and Andrews structural trend break model to identify structural breaks. Used empirical mode decomposition and Hurst exponent to analyze time scales.
result Identified short-term and long-term time scales in stock markets, with short-term scales within few days to 3 months and long-term scales greater than 5 months.
We investigate multifractality in the Korean stock-market index KOSPI. The generalized qth order height-height correlation function shows multiscaling properties. There are two scaling regimes with a crossover time around tc=40 min. We consider the original data sets and the modified data sets obtained by removin…
New estimators for intrinsic dimension and Wasserstein distance improve OT accuracy.
problem Intrinsic dimension estimation and Wasserstein distance estimation in large-scale OT.
method Introduces novel estimators for intrinsic dimension and Wasserstein distance.
result Simple, tuning-free estimator of OT and fast intrinsic dimension estimator.
A heuristic framework tests the multi-manifold hypothesis in empirical data.
problem Overestimation of parameters in global linear models.
method Heuristic multiscale framework using spline-interpolated manifolds.
result Validates the multi-manifold hypothesis in empirical data.
Study shows curiosity-driven learning can perform well without extrinsic rewards.
problem Lack of scalable methods for intrinsic reward design in reinforcement learning.
method Performed a large-scale study of curiosity-driven learning across 54 environments, using prediction error as reward.
result Curiosity-driven learning can achieve good performance without extrinsic rewards, aligning with hand-designed rewards in many cases.
Scaling laws found for reinforcement learning performance with model size and compute.
problem Challenges in extending generative modeling scaling laws to reinforcement learning.
method Introduced intrinsic performance as a monotonic function of mean episode return.
result Intrinsic performance scales as a power law in model size and environment interactions.
New control on diameter and curvature for evolving surfaces.
problem Controlling the diameter and curvature of evolving surfaces under mean curvature flow.
method Detailed analysis of cylindrical regions under mean curvature flow.
result Intrinsic diameter stays uniformly controlled as surfaces approach first singular time.
We present an empirical analysis of the microstructure of financial markets and, in particular, of the static and dynamic properties of liquidity. We find that on relatively large time scales (15 minutes) large price fluctuations are connected to the failure of the subtle mechanism of compensation between the flows of …
LIDL estimates local intrinsic dimension in high dimensions.
problem Estimating local intrinsic dimension in high-dimensional data.
method Approximate likelihood using parametric neural density estimation.
result LIDL scales to thousands of dimensions and yields competitive results.
Study nearest-neighbor radii under dependent sampling, finding they remain informative.
problem Analyzing nearest-neighbor radii under dependent sampling.
method Consider strong mixing dependent observations, establish distribution-free almost sure convergence and sharp non-asymptotic moment bounds.
result Nearest-neighbor geometry remains informative under dependence sampling.
Develops a new method to compare data distributions on manifolds.
problem Existing techniques for comparing data distributions are limited and uni-scale.
method Intrinsic and multi-scale method using spectral Gromov-Wasserstein distance.
result Effective at discerning data manifold structure and evaluating generative models.
New 3D protein analysis methods improve accuracy.
problem Lack of suitable learning algorithms for protein data.
method Intrinsic-Extrinsic Convolution and Pooling for 3D protein structures.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art methods on protein analysis tasks.
Designing a covariance function that represents the underlying correlation is a crucial step in modeling complex natural systems, such as climate models. Geospatial datasets at a global scale usually suffer from non-stationarity and non-uniformly smooth spatial boundaries. A Gaussian process regression using a non-stat…
LLMs learn peaked distributions slowly due to power-law losses.
problem Slow convergence of loss in training large language models.
method Systematic analysis of toy models and empirical evaluation of LLMs.
result Power-law time scaling with an exponent of 1/3 for learning peaked distributions.
The study explains transformer scaling laws using statistical and approximation theories.
problem Understanding why transformer scaling laws exist for large models trained on low-dimensional data.
method Established statistical estimation and mathematical approximation theories for transformers on low-dimensional manifolds.
result Predicted a power law between generalization error and model and data sizes, with power depending on intrinsic data dimension.
The paper explores how neural networks generalize differently from natural and medical images.
problem Discrepancies in generalization error between natural and medical images.
method Established and empirically validated a generalization scaling law with respect to intrinsic dataset properties.
result Higher intrinsic 'label sharpness' of medical images leads to higher adversarial vulnerability.
Shallow nonlinear networks can separate classes linearly with polynomially scaling width.
problem Understanding the linear separability of deep networks' features.
method Modeling inputs as a union of low-dimensional subspaces and using random weights and quadratic activations.
result Shallow nonlinear networks can achieve linear separation with polynomially scaling width.
Detects singularities in complex data to improve machine learning models.
problem Real-world data often contains non-manifold structures (singularities) that can mislead machine learning models.
method Develops a topological framework to quantify local intrinsic dimension and Euclidicity score for multiple scales.
result Identifies singularities and captures local geometric complexity in image data.
Proves compactness for timed-metric spaces using new distance and maps.
problem Weak convergence of space-times using timed-Hausdorff distance.
method Uses Gromov's original compactness theorem and introduces addresses.
result Establishes compactness theorem for intrinsic timed-Hausdorff convergence.
Introduces Floer functions and Floerfolds for intrinsic properties.
problem Complex transformation of Hessian under chart transition.
method Introduces Floer functions and Floerfolds to address intrinsic properties.
result Floer functions and Floerfolds provide intrinsic conditions for Hessian.
Langevin Dynamics speeds up mixing time with manifold hypothesis and multi-scale approach.
problem Langevin Dynamics struggles in high dimensions and nonconvex landscapes.
method Utilizes manifold hypothesis to reduce mixing time and employs multi-scale approach to improve image generation quality.
result Mixing time depends on intrinsic dimension rather than ambient dimension, significantly reducing computational complexity.
Empirical analysis of financial market trends and reversions across various time scales.
problem Understanding trends and reversions in financial markets over different time scales.
method Analysis of 14 years of futures tick data, 30 years of daily futures prices, 330 years of monthly asset prices, and yearly financial data since medieval times.
result Markets exhibit trending and reversion regimes with different time scales, explaining trends persistence and reversions.
The paper corrects biases in estimating intrinsic dimension and differential entropy.
problem Systematic bias in estimating intrinsic dimension and differential entropy.
method A bias-corrected estimator for both measures is proposed, highlighting shared steps and useful consequences.
result Simultaneous estimation of differential entropy and intrinsic dimension provides complementary perspectives on underlying manifolds.
Estimates intrinsic dimensionality of biological datasets using Fisher separability.
problem High-dimensional biological datasets with complex structures.
method Fisher separability analysis to estimate intrinsic dimensionality.
result The method performs competitively with state-of-the-art measures and is robust to noise.
MuSiCNet tackles irregularly sampled multivariate time series by treating them as a hierarchy of relatively regular series.
problem Irregularly sampled multivariate time series with missing values.
method Gradual coarse-to-fine approach with multi-scale and multi-correlation attention network.
result MuSiCNet improves ISMTS representation quality through hierarchical learning.
Depreciation methods ignore the Time Value of Money, leading to suboptimal asset valuation.
problem Depreciation methods do not account for the Time Value of Money, leading to suboptimal asset valuation.
method Formulate a depreciation method that incorporates the Time Value of Money to approximate intrinsic asset value.
result A new depreciation method improves asset valuation, aiding better purchase and sale decisions.
The paper introduces sections in metric spaces with properties related to Ahlfors-David regularity and convexity.
problem Understanding properties of sections in metric spaces.
method Definition and investigation of intrinsically quasi-isometric sections in metric spaces.
result Properties of sections, including Ahlfors-David regularity and convexity, are defined and investigated.
A new geometric method approximates slow invariant manifolds without explicit time-scale separation.
problem Approximating slow invariant manifolds in systems with multiple time-scales.
method Geodesic Stretching and Flow Curvature methods translated into tensorial constructions of Riemannian geometry.
result The method approximates normally attracting invariant manifolds without requiring explicit time-scale separation.
The detrending moving average (DMA) algorithm is one of the best performing methods to quantify the long-term correlations in nonstationary time series. Many long-term correlated time series in real systems contain various trends. We investigate the effects of polynomial trends on the scaling behaviors and the performa…
We study, both analytically and numerically, an ARCH-like, multiscale model of volatility, which assumes that the volatility is governed by the observed past price changes on different time scales. With a power-law distribution of time horizons, we obtain a model that captures most stylized facts of financial time seri…