A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A new method improves inference for complex Bayesian models.
We propose an algorithm which predicts each subsequent time step relative to the previous timestep of intractable short rate model (when adjusted for drift and overall distribution of previous percentile result) and show that the method achieves superior outcomes to the unbiased estimate both on the trained dataset and…
New MCMC methods use auxiliary variables to sample from intractable distributions.
A large number of statistical models are "doubly-intractable": the likelihood normalising term, which is a function of the model parameters, is intractable, as well as the marginal likelihood (model evidence). This means that standard inference techniques to sample from the posterior, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (…
Bayesian inference for models that have an intractable partition function is known as a doubly intractable problem, where standard Monte Carlo methods are not applicable. The past decade has seen the development of auxiliary variable Monte Carlo techniques (Møller et al., 2006; Murray et al., 2006) for tackling this pr…
Bayesian inference uses Stein discrepancy for robustness in intractable likelihoods.
Generative Bayesian Filtering improves inference in complex models without explicit density evaluations.
Semi-Implicit Variational Inference (SIVI) is improved with SIVI-SM using score matching.
Efficient Bayesian decision-making with intractable likelihoods.
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are widely used to sample from complicated distributions, especially to sample from the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. However, MCMC is not directly applicable when facing the doubly intractable problem. In this paper, we discussed and compared two existing solu…
Paper establishes DRL for high-dimensional rewards.
A new method for sampling from posterior distributions in Bayesian inverse problems.
Top-performing machine learning systems, such as deep neural networks, large ensembles and complex probabilistic graphical models, can be expensive to store, slow to evaluate and hard to integrate into larger systems. Ideally, we would like to replace such cumbersome models with simpler models that perform equally well…
How can we perform efficient inference and learning in directed probabilistic models, in the presence of continuous latent variables with intractable posterior distributions, and large datasets? We introduce a stochastic variational inference and learning algorithm that scales to large datasets and, under some mild dif…
Fitting probabilistic models to data is often difficult, due to the general intractability of the partition function and its derivatives. Here we propose a new parameter estimation technique that does not require computing an intractable normalization factor or sampling from the equilibrium distribution of the model. T…
Investor maximizes utility from an unknown claim using robust optimization.
New method uses neural exponential families for likelihood-free inference.
Computing partition functions, the normalizing constants of probability distributions, is often hard. Variants of importance sampling give unbiased estimates of a normalizer Z, however, unbiased estimates of the reciprocal 1/Z are harder to obtain. Unbiased estimates of 1/Z allow Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling of "d…
This review article surveys data augmentation MCMC algorithms.
Privacy preserving mechanisms such as differential privacy inject additional randomness in the form of noise in the data, beyond the sampling mechanism. Ignoring this additional noise can lead to inaccurate and invalid inferences. In this paper, we incorporate the privacy mechanism explicitly into the likelihood functi…
This paper solves robust utility maximization with unknown claim dependencies.
A new gradient estimator for categorical distributions reduces bias and variance.
ABI bypasses likelihood intractability with nonparametric distribution matching.
We propose a general algorithm for approximating nonstandard Bayesian posterior distributions. The algorithm minimizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence of an approximating distribution to the intractable posterior distribution. Our method can be used to approximate any posterior distribution, provided that it is given i…
Optimizes experimental designs for intractable models using mutual information bounds.
Many methods for machine learning rely on approximate inference from intractable probability distributions. Variational inference approximates such distributions by tractable models that can be subsequently used for approximate inference. Learning sufficiently accurate approximations requires a rich model family and ca…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo is repeatedly used to analyze the properties of intractable distributions in a convenient way. In this paper we derive conditions for geometric ergodicity of a general class of nonparametric stochastic volatility models with skewness driven by hidden Markov Chain with switching.
Likelihood-free methods such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) have extended the reach of statistical inference to problems with computationally intractable likelihoods. Such approaches perform well for small-to-moderate dimensional problems, but suffer a curse of dimensionality in the number of model parameter…
Paper develops a scalable distributed inference algorithm for sensor networks.
The mean field methods, which entail approximating intractable probability distributions variationally with distributions from a tractable family, enjoy high efficiency, guaranteed convergence, and provide lower bounds on the true likelihood. But due to requirement for model-specific derivation of the optimization equa…
Variational Prediction simplifies Bayesian inference without test time costs.
A new method improves Bayesian inference for multimodal posteriors.
Bayesian approach for inhomogeneous Poisson process intensity estimation.
We derive and approximate the conjugate prior of Dirichlet and beta distributions.
Score matching offers efficient estimation for certain distributions.
This paper improves conditional sampling for VAEs by overcoming structural issues.
We develop a general method for estimating a finite mixture of non-normalized models. Here, a non-normalized model is defined to be a parametric distribution with an intractable normalization constant. Existing methods for estimating non-normalized models without computing the normalization constant are not applicable …
ConDiSim uses diffusion models to approximate complex system posteriors efficiently.
Posterior sampling from diffusion models is computationally hard.
Algorithm simulates counterfactuals for fairness analysis.
New method for density estimation without approximating posterior distributions.
A new method uses mixture approximations to improve diffusion models for Bayesian inverse problems.
Generative adversarial networks (GANs) are a powerful approach to unsupervised learning. They have achieved state-of-the-art performance in the image domain. However, GANs are limited in two ways. They often learn distributions with low support---a phenomenon known as mode collapse---and they do not guarantee the exist…
We derive a new discrepancy statistic for measuring differences between two probability distributions based on combining Stein's identity with the reproducing kernel Hilbert space theory. We apply our result to test how well a probabilistic model fits a set of observations, and derive a new class of powerful goodness-o…
Thompson sampling (TS) is a class of algorithms for sequential decision-making, which requires maintaining a posterior distribution over a model. However, calculating exact posterior distributions is intractable for all but the simplest models. Consequently, efficient computation of an approximate posterior distributio…
Python package for fast simulation-based inference.
The exchange algorithm is studied for its convergence and asymptotic variance.
We consider the problem of computing first-passage time distributions for reaction processes modelled by master equations. We show that this generally intractable class of problems is equivalent to a sequential Bayesian inference problem for an auxiliary observation process. The solution can be approximated efficiently…