Paper recovers latent causal structure and linear transformation from indirect observations.
problem Recovering latent causal structure and linear transformation from indirect observations.
method Established sufficient conditions for DAG recovery, leveraged score function properties, and used soft/hard interventions.
result Perfect recovery of latent DAG structure and linear transformation up to scaling using soft interventions, hard interventions with additional hypothesis testing.
Holdout set improves risk score accuracy without biasing predictions.
problem Updating risk scores can lead to biased estimates when directly applied.
method Use a holdout set of non-intervention population to update risk scores.
result Optimal holdout size reduces adverse outcomes to optimal level.
This paper tackles CRL for multi-node interventions, achieving identifiability guarantees.
problem CRL under unknown multi-node interventions, focusing on single-node assumptions.
method Establishes identifiability results for general latent causal models under stochastic interventions.
result Identifiability up to ancestors using soft interventions, perfect identifiability using hard interventions.
A new method infers causal gene regulatory networks from parallel CRISPR interventions and transcriptomic data.
problem Learning causal gene regulatory networks from observational data is complicated by lack of identifiability and a combinatorial solution space.
method A continuous optimization framework that leverages observational and interventional data to infer a single causal structure, assuming a linear Structural Equation Model (SEM).
result A provably consistent estimator of the true DAG under mild assumptions.
New method estimates stochastic intervention effects in decision-making domains.
problem Current causal inference methods are limited to deterministic treatment, unable to handle stochastic policies.
method Developed a new stochastic propensity score and stochastic intervention effect estimator (SIE) with a customized genetic algorithm (Ge-SIO).
result Empirical study shows significant performance improvement over state-of-the-art baselines.
Bayesian method for inferring causal relations from mixed observational and interventional data.
problem Challenges in causal inference from heterogeneous study conditions with unknown soft interventions.
method Interventional Bayesian Gaussian equivalent score for a mixture of observational and interventional data.
result Effective characterisation of posterior distributions of causal structures and intervention effects.
This paper tackles causal representation learning with linear and general transformations.
problem Identify and recover latent causal variables and graphs under unknown transformations.
method Score-based algorithms that use gradients of log-density functions for identifiability and achievability.
result Two stochastic hard interventions per node are sufficient for identifiability of general transformations.
Updating predictive models introduces bias, leading to miscalibration.
problem Bias introduced when updating predictive models after interventions.
method Proposed a causal framework and partially observed Markov decision process.
result Successive predictive scores may converge to undesirable outcomes.
Bayesian method for causal discovery from unknown general interventions.
problem Learning causal DAGs from unknown interventions that modify parent sets.
method Bayesian approach with MCMC for approximating posterior DAGs and intervention targets.
result Bayesian method can identify DAGs and intervention targets up to equivalence classes.
This tutorial introduces causal modeling methods for researchers.
problem Understanding causal relationships in research studies.
method Integrates potential outcomes and graphical methods for causal modeling.
result Clear notation and practical examples for applied researchers.
ENCOD learns causal graphs efficiently without acyclicity constraints.
problem Learning causal graphical models from observational and interventional data.
method ENCOD uses optimization of edge likelihoods with separate orientation parameters.
result ENCOD efficiently recovers large graphs (hundreds of nodes) without acyclicity constraints.
Paper establishes identifiability and achievability for causal representation learning.
problem Identifying and recovering latent causal models and variables from observational and interventional data.
method Establishes identifiability and achievability using uncoupled interventions and a recovery algorithm.
result Guaranteed perfect recovery of latent causal model and variables under uncoupled interventions.
CPP improves predictive model outputs for better intervention decisions.
problem Predictive models often misguide resource allocation.
method Causal post-processing techniques using limited experimental data.
result CPP can improve intervention decisions, especially with imperfect causal signals.
Empirical Bayes improves causal representation learning across multiple domains.
problem Estimating causal representations from data across multiple domains.
method Developed an EB f-modeling algorithm for linearly-mixed causal representations. result Our method achieves more accurate estimation of causal variables than other methods.
Modern longitudinal studies collect feature data at many timepoints, often of the same order of sample size. Such studies are typically affected by {dropout} and positivity violations. We tackle these problems by generalizing effects of recent incremental interventions (which shift propensity scores rather than set tre…
ISAAC audits deep models for drug-target interactions, revealing structural differences.
problem Deep models for DTI often use irrelevant features, making them hard to evaluate.
method ISAAC uses intervention-based structural auditing to evaluate model sensitivity.
result ISAAC reveals significant structural differences in DTI models' reasoning.
Paper tackles anomaly detection with missing causal knowledge.
problem Detect anomalies with missing structural knowledge.
method Simple, efficient methods for polytree causal graphs.
result Heuristic identifies root causes based on anomaly scores.
New method decomposes local projections to reveal historical drivers of estimates.
problem Uncertainty in interpreting local projections due to black-box nature.
method Decomposes LP estimates into contributions of historical events, interpreting weights as shocks and proximity scores.
result Dominant historical events drive impulse response estimates, revealing underlying mechanisms.
A new method learns causal structure from data using amortized inference.
problem Causal structure learning is a combinatorial search problem that is costly and difficult to design suitable scores or tests.
method Train a variational inference model to predict causal structure from data.
result Our inference model generalizes well to larger problem instances and outperforms existing algorithms, especially in genomics.
Improved assessment of knee osteoarthritis using geodesic B-score.
problem Need for automatic, reader-independent measures of osteoarthritis clinical outcomes.
method Derive a geodesic B-score for Riemannian shape spaces, develop efficient algorithm for large shape populations.
result Geodesic B-score exhibits improved discrimination ability over Euclidean B-score.
Observational cohort studies with oversampled exposed subjects are typically implemented to understand the causal effect of a rare exposure. Because the distribution of exposed subjects in the sample differs from the source population, estimation of a propensity score function (i.e., probability of exposure given basel…
Algorithm simulates counterfactuals for fairness analysis.
problem Analytical intractability of counterfactuals in conditional distributions.
method Proposes an algorithm using particle filtering for discrete and continuous variables.
result Asymptotically valid inference for counterfactuals.
Algorithm identifies missing data distributions in graphical models.
problem Identifying missing data distributions in graphical models with interventionist perspective.
method Tree-based identification algorithm that tracks selection bias and admissible intervention strategies.
result Valid estimating equations for missingness mechanism and complete data distribution.
Neural network learns causal graph structure from data.
problem Inferring causal graph structure from observational and interventional data.
method Supervised training of a neural network on synthetic graphs.
result Learned model generalizes to new graphs, robust to distribution shifts, and outperforms existing methods.
Signed pairwise interactions conflate uniqueness, redundancy, and synergy
problem Signed pairwise interactions conflate uniqueness, redundancy, and synergy
method Stochastic Hi-Fi
result Stochastic Hi-Fi recovers structure missed by scalar baselines
The paper reconciles two conflicting fairness criteria in algorithmic risk scores.
problem How to reconcile calibration and equal error rates in algorithmic risk scores.
method Derive necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of calibrated scores achieving equal error rates, then present an algorithm to find the most accurate score subject to both criteria.
result The method can eliminate error disparities while maintaining calibration and improve profit in credit lending.
New method combines gradient optimization with constraint-based techniques for causal discovery.
problem Causal discovery from observational data, especially with small sample sizes.
method Differentiable d-separation scores using percolation theory and soft logic for gradient-based optimization of conditional independence constraints. result Empirical evaluations show robust performance in low-sample regimes, surpassing traditional methods.
We considered observational data available from the MIMIC-III open-access ICU database and collected within a study period between year 2002 up to 2011. If a patient had multiple admissions to the ICU during the 30 days before death, only the first stay was analyzed, leading to a final set of 6,436 unique ICU admission…
New monitoring method detects ML risk models' performance changes in medical interventions.
problem Monitoring ML risk models in healthcare is complicated by confounding medical interventions.
method Developed a new score-based CUSUM monitoring procedure with dynamic control limits.
result Valid inference is possible if conditional exchangeability or time-constant selection bias hold.
AGENTICAITA uses AI agents to autonomously trade markets without human intervention.
problem Inability of traditional trading systems to adapt to market complexity.
method Introduces an agentic AI framework with specialized LLM agents reasoning, negotiating, and acting.
result Demonstrated operational correctness and non-trivial inter-agent negotiation in live market conditions.
Deep learning predicts opioid use disorder risk in patients.
problem Identifying patients at high risk of opioid use disorder.
method Applied LSTM models to analyze electronic health records of opioid users.
result LSTM model outperformed other methods with F1 score of 0.8023 and AUCROC of 0.9369.
We clarify what fairness guarantees we can and cannot expect to follow from unconstrained machine learning. Specifically, we characterize when unconstrained learning on its own implies group calibration, that is, the outcome variable is conditionally independent of group membership given the score. We show that under r…
Optimizes risk assessment tools using mixed-integer programming.
problem Challenges in healthcare risk assessment due to label scarcity and asymmetric misclassification costs.
method Jointly optimizes scoring weights and category thresholds via mixed-integer programming (MIP).
result Prevents label-scarce category collapse and achieves more accurate risk categorization.
The wide spread usage of automated data-driven decision support systems has raised a lot of concerns regarding accountability and fairness of the employed models in the absence of human supervision. Existing fairness-aware approaches tackle fairness as a batch learning problem and aim at learning a fair model which can…
Study evaluates three class imbalance techniques across diverse datasets.
problem Class imbalance in binary classification tasks.
method Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE), Class Weights tuning, Decision Threshold Calibration.
result Decision Threshold Calibration is the most consistently effective technique.
Graph Neural Network improves causal inference in dynamic systems.
problem Identifying causal relations among multi-variate time series.
method Graph Neural Network approach with score-based method.
result Graph Neural Network significantly outperformed other methods in dynamic Bayesian network inference.
FairPOT balances fairness and AUC performance by selectively transforming risk scores.
problem Balancing fairness and AUC performance in high-stakes domains.
method FairPOT uses proportional optimal transport to selectively transform risk scores.
result FairPOT consistently improves fairness with minimal AUC degradation or even positive gains.
The power of randomized algorithms in numerical methods have led to fast solutions which use the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) as a core routine. However, given the large data size of modern and the modest runtime of SVD, most practical algorithms would require some form of approximation, such as sketching, when r…
Estimating treatment effects in time series with hidden confounding.
problem Estimating treatment effects in time series with hidden confounding.
method A neural framework that learns individual-level counterfactuals and flexible matching procedures.
result Improves counterfactual estimation under latent bias.
Estimates joint causal effects using single-variable interventions on nonlinear models.
problem Estimating joint causal effects from single-variable interventions.
method Identifiability result and practical estimator for decomposing causal effects.
result Joint effects can be inferred without joint interventional data for nonlinear additive models.
Proposes a new method for feature selection using Bayesian ID with intervention.
problem Feature selection in data with varying importance.
method Probabilistic model for interpolative decomposition with Bayesian inference and Gibbs sampling.
result The proposed Bayesian ID algorithm with intervention selects features with higher priority and comparable reconstructive errors.
This work tackles causal graph discovery with stochastic interventions to minimize the number of interventions.
problem Discovering the true causal graph from observational data with limited interventions.
method Proposes a stochastic intervention model and studies verification and search problems with approximation algorithms.
result Provides approximation algorithms with competitive ratios for verification and search problems.
Causal diagrams based on do intervention are useful tools to formalize, process and understand causal relationship among variables. However, the do intervention has controversial interpretation of causal questions for non-manipulable variables, and it also lacks the power to check the conditions related to counterfactu…
The paper examines how machine learning tools in justice settings can unfairly affect different racial groups.
problem Machine learning tools in justice settings can unfairly affect different racial groups.
method Exploring different ideas of racial equity and their computational trade-offs.
result Computation alone is unlikely to solve the unfairness in machine learning tools for justice settings.
A system for supervising decentralized finance risks using LLMs and structured evidence.
problem Supervising decentralized finance risks
method Forecast-grounded agentic supervision system
result Developed a system that scores tickets against a regulator-aligned ground truth and false-intervention rate.
Our goal is to identify beneficial interventions from observational data. We consider interventions that are narrowly focused (impacting few covariates) and may be tailored to each individual or globally enacted over a population. For applications where harmful intervention is drastically worse than proposing no change…
Paper proposes scalable algorithm to estimate intervention targets in linear models.
problem Estimating intervention targets in linear models from observational and interventional data.
method The paper proposes a scalable algorithm that estimates intervention sites from the difference between precision matrices of observational and interventional datasets.
result The algorithm consistently identifies all intervention targets and updates observational Markov equivalence classes to interventional ones.
Paper proposes an algorithm to learn DAGs with indirect dependencies.
problem Learning DAGs misses indirect dependencies in local variables.
method Two-phase algorithm using high-order HSIC for local optimization.
result OT algorithm outperforms existing methods in structure estimation.