arXiv research

Khovanov homology extended to 3-manifolds, linking tangles.

We show that if $\mathcal{L}$ is a codimension-one lamination in a finite volume hyperbolic 3-manifold such that the principal curvatures of each leaf of $\mathcal{L}$ are all in the interval $(-δ,δ)$ for a fixed $δ\in[0,1)$ and no complimentary region of $\mathcal{L}$ is an interval bundle over a surface, then each bo…

Reproves results on spherical metrics using parabolic bundles.

We extend the continuity equation of La Nave-Tian to Hermitian metrics and establish its interval of maximal existence. The equation is closely related to the Chern-Ricci flow, and we illustrate this in the case of elliptic bundles over a curve of genus at least two.

Let G be compact Lie group. It is shown that the cotangent bundle of the complexification of G admits a hyperkahler structure which is invariant under left and right translations by elements of G. The proof is to realize the cotangent bundle of the complex group as a moduli space of solutions to Nahm's equations on the…

We consider cohomogeneity one homogeneous disk bundles and adress the question when these admit a nonnegatively curved invariant metric with normal collar, i.e., such that near the boundary the metric is the product of an interval and a normal homogeneous space. If such a bundle is not (the quotient of) a trivial bundl…

In this paper we establish the existence of periodic orbits belonging to any $σ$-atoroidal free homotopy class for Hamiltonian systems in the twisted disc bundle, provided that the compactly supported time-dependent Hamiltonian function is sufficiently large over the zero section and the magnitude of the weakly exact $…

Let M be a compact, orientable, hyperbolizable 3-manifold with incompressible boundary which is not an interval bundle. We study the dynamics of the action of the outer automorphism group of the fundamental group of M on the relative PSL(2,C)-character variety.

Kapustin and Witten associate a Hecke modification of a holomorphic bundle over a Riemann surface to a singular monopole on a Riemannian surface times an interval satisfying prescribed boundary conditions. We prove existence and uniqueness of singular monopoles satisfying prescribed boundary conditions for any given He…

In this thesis, we employ simplicial methods to study actions, principal bundles, and bibundles of higher groupoids. Roughly, we use Kan fibrations to model actions of higher groupoids, we use pairs of a Kan fibration and a special acyclic fibration to model principal bundles of higher groupoids, we use inner Kan fibra…

A map from 3-manifold skein to Lagrangian skein via holomorphic curve counting.

Let M be a twisted interval bundle over a nonorientable hyperbolizable surface. Let X(M) be the PSL(2,C)-character variety of π_1(M). We examine the dynamics of the action of Out(π_1(M)) on X(M), and in particular, we find an open set on which the action is properly discontinuous that is strictly larger than the interi…

Study of flows on circle bundles over translation surfaces, showing decay of correlations.

We take a first step towards understanding the relationship between foliations and universally tight contact structures on hyperbolic 3-manifolds. If a surface bundle over a circle has pseudo-Anosov holonomy, we obtain a classification of "extremal" tight contact structures. Specifically, there is exactly one contact s…

Rationality of the Wightman functions is proven to follow from energy positivity, locality and a natural condition of global conformal invariance (GCI) in any number D of space-time dimensions. The GCI condition allows to treat correlation functions as generalized sections of a vector bundle over the compactification o…

We give time-slicing path integral formulas for solutions to the heat equation corresponding to a self-adjoint Laplace type operator acting on sections of a vector bundle over a compact Riemannian manifold with boundary. More specifically, we show that such a solution can be approximated by integrals over finite-dimens…

We establish a criterion for certain mapping classes of a surface homeomorphisms to be pseudo-Anosov in terms of the geometry of hyperbolic 3-manifolds and Gromov-hyperbolic surface group extensions. Specifically, any element of the fundamental group of a surface S gives rise to a mapping class on the punctured surface…

In this note we show that for the group G = U(N) the space of Hecke modifications of a rank N vector bundle over a Riemann surface C coincides with the moduli space of solutions of certain non-abelian vortex equations over C . Through the recent work of Kapustin and Witten this then leads to an isomorphism between the …

This is the third in a series of papers constructing hyperbolic structures on all Haken three-manifolds. This portion deals with the mixed case of the deformation space for manifolds with incompressible boundary that are not acylindrical, but are more complicated than interval bundles over surfaces. This is a slight re…

We study the existence of weighted extremal Kähler metrics in the sense of Apostolov-Calderbank-Gauduchon-Legendre and Lahdili on the total space of an admissible projective bundle over a Hodge Kähler manifold of constant scalar curvature. Admissible projective bundles have been defined by Apostolov-Calderbank-Gauducho…

Having a regression model, we are interested in finding two-sided intervals that are guaranteed to contain at least a desired proportion of the conditional distribution of the response variable given a specific combination of predictors. We name such intervals predictive intervals. This work presents a new method to fi…

Study the Bochner-Schrödinger operator on symplectic manifolds, proving gap existence and asymptotic kernel behavior.

Study of solitons in Laplacian flow on 7-manifolds.

Prediction intervals are a valuable way of quantifying uncertainty in regression problems. Good prediction intervals should be both correct, containing the actual value between the lower and upper bound at least a target percentage of the time; and tight, having a small mean width of the bounds. Many prior techniques f…

New methods for ordinal classification of interval-valued data and functional data.

Develops active intervals for geodesics in Teichmüller space.

Confidence intervals based on penalized maximum likelihood estimators such as the LASSO, adaptive LASSO, and hard-thresholding are analyzed. In the known-variance case, the finite-sample coverage properties of such intervals are determined and it is shown that symmetric intervals are the shortest. The length of the sho…

Proposes a method to create prediction intervals for neural networks using cross-validation.

The statistical properties of the return intervals $τ_q$ between successive 1-min volatilities of 30 liquid Chinese stocks exceeding a certain threshold $q$ are carefully studied. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test shows that 12 stocks exhibit scaling behaviors in the distributions of $τ_q$ for different thresholds $q$. …

CONTINA provides adaptive confidence intervals for traffic demand prediction.

The paper presents a method for generating well-calibrated prediction intervals using quality-driven deep ensembles.

Constructs tail-specific prediction intervals for financial applications

Analyzes biased random walks and corrupted intervals in adversarial settings.

Paper introduces a new method for classifying interval-valued time series.

Extends Fisher's Discriminant Analysis for interval-valued data.

Energy markets and the associated energy futures markets play a crucial role in global economies. We investigate the statistical properties of the recurrence intervals of daily volatility time series of four NYMEX energy futures, which are defined as the waiting times $τ$ between consecutive volatilities exceeding a gi…

Study optimality conditions for interval-valued optimization problems on Riemannian manifolds.

This work challenges the assumption that shorter conformal prediction intervals are always better.

Boosted conformal procedure improves prediction intervals.

We investigate scaling and memory effects in return intervals between price volatilities above a certain threshold $q$ for the Japanese stock market using daily and intraday data sets. We find that the distribution of return intervals can be approximated by a scaling function that depends only on the ratio between the …

Paper simulates LR fuzzy intervals with interval-valued cores.

Extending methods first used by Casson, we show how to verify a hyperbolic structure on a finite triangulation of a closed 3-manifold using interval arithmetic methods. A key ingredient is a new theoretical result (akin to a theorem by Neumann-Zagier and Moser for ideal triangulations upon which HIKMOT is based) showin…

New confidence intervals improve treatment effect estimation in randomized experiments.

Practical or scientific considerations often lead to selecting a subset of parameters as ``important.'' Inferences about those parameters often are based on the same data used to select them in the first place. That can make the reported uncertainties deceptively optimistic: confidence intervals that ignore selection g…

Random Forests provide interpretable prediction intervals with theoretical guarantees.

RQR improves prediction intervals for skewed data.

In this paper we consider an interval portfolio selection problem with uncertain returns and introduce an inclusive concept of satisfaction index for interval inequality relation. Based on the satisfaction index, we propose an approach to reduce the interval programming problem with uncertain objective and constraints …

BCI provides calibrated prediction intervals for time series forecasts.