This study assesses how economic shocks affect the efficiency and robustness of international pesticide trade networks.
problem Economic shocks impact the efficiency and robustness of international pesticide trade networks.
method Simulations were used to quantify efficiency and robustness under different economic shocks. Three strategies were tested: descending, random, and ascending node removal.
result The international pesticide trade networks became more efficient and robust except for clustering coefficient. Import-oriented economies were more vulnerable to shocks.
Bilateral trade relationships in the international level between pairs of countries in the world give rise to the notion of the International Trade Network (ITN). This network has attracted the attention of network researchers as it serves as an excellent example of the weighted networks, the link weight being defined …
Neural networks need guidance to learn appropriate internal representations.
problem Neural networks struggle to learn appropriate internal representations without guidance.
method Encouraging an appropriate internal representation improves neural network performance.
result Guiding neural networks to learn appropriate internal representations improves their performance.
Paper uses neural networks to analyze oil price impact on Iranian stock and industry indices.
problem Impact of oil price volatility on Tehran stock and industry indices.
method Feed-forward neural networks analysis of two periods: sanctions and post-sanctions.
result Neural networks predict stock and industry indices well, showing significant oil price volatility impact.
We investigate the role of networks of alliances in preventing (multilateral) interstate wars. We first show that, in the absence of international trade, no network of alliances is peaceful and stable. We then show that international trade induces peaceful and stable networks: trade increases the density of alliances s…
This paper explores the relationships between migration and trade using a complex-network approach. We show that: (i) both weighted and binary versions of the networks of international migration and trade are strongly correlated; (ii) such correlations can be mostly explained by country economic/demographic size and ge…
Improves LSTM performance by initializing states via manifold learning.
problem Improving LSTM performance through better initialization.
method Learning an intrinsic data manifold to initialize LSTM internal states.
result Improved LSTM performance through consistent initialization.
Trade networks for maize, rice, soy, and wheat are more vulnerable to shocks.
problem Increased complexity in international crop trade networks makes them more susceptible to cascades of demand failures.
method Analyzed FAO data from 176 countries over 21 years to construct higher-order trade dependency networks.
result Trade networks are more prone to failure cascades caused by exogenous shocks.
Study uses AI to predict changes in international public finances based on US markets.
problem Understanding correlations between US and international public finances.
method Artificial intelligence and neural networks to model and predict changes.
result Neural network model achieved MSE of 2.79, indicating significant correlation and impact of US market volatility on international markets.
Study improves stock price prediction by integrating international markets using deep learning.
problem Complex cross-correlation between international stock markets.
method Multimodal deep learning to forecast stock prices.
result Early and intermediate fusion models outperform late fusion and single modality models.
We propose a unified modelling framework that theoretically justifies the main empirical regularities characterizing the international trade network. Each country is associated to a Polya urn whose composition controls the propensity of the country to trade with other countries. The urn composition is updated through t…
Generative neural networks improve insurance market risk modeling.
problem Creating realistic market risk scenarios for insurance companies.
method Using generative adversarial networks (GANs) to generate economic scenarios.
result GAN-based models produce similar results to traditional regulatory models.
Random feature maps improve forecasting with cheaper computation.
problem Improving forecasting accuracy with random feature maps.
method Developed a hit-and-run algorithm to select optimal internal weights.
result Optimal internal weights lead to superior forecasting skill.
The interdependent nature of the global economy has become stronger with increases in international trade and investment. We propose a new model to reconstruct the international trade network and associated cost network by maximizing entropy based on local information about inward and outward trade. We show that the tr…
Method determines latent dimensionality in international trade flows.
problem Finding meaningful low-dimensional latent features in high-dimensional international trade data.
method Proposes a latent dimension determination method based on clustering of nonnegative RESCAL decompositions.
result Validates the latent features against empirical economic facts.
This paper investigates whether the gravity model (GM) can explain the statistical properties of the International Trade Network (ITN). We fit data on international-trade flows with a GM specification using alternative fitting techniques and we employ GM estimates to build a weighted predicted ITN, whose topological pr…
Study uses Google matrix analysis to show how COVID-19 changed international trade flows.
problem Impact of COVID-19 on international trade patterns.
method Google matrix analysis of World Trade Network (WTN), including PageRank, CheiRank, and reduced Google matrix.
result Significant changes in international trade flows due to the pandemic, affecting export and import balances.
Neural networks learn distance-based representations, not just intensity.
problem Understanding how neural networks interpret and learn from internal activations.
method Manipulated ReLU and Absolute Value activations to observe sensitivity to distance and intensity perturbations.
result Neural networks are highly sensitive to small distance-based perturbations, challenging the intensity-based interpretation.
Tools of the theory of critical phenomena, namely the scaling analysis and universality, are argued to be applicable to large complex web-like network structures. Using a detailed analysis of the real data of the International Trade Network we argue that the scaled link weight distribution has an approximate log-normal…
Graphs are general and powerful data representations which can model complex real-world phenomena, ranging from chemical compounds to social networks; however, effective feature extraction from graphs is not a trivial task, and much work has been done in the field of machine learning and data mining. The recent advance…
Study the structure of international trade through hypergraphs.
problem Understanding the complex relationships in international trade networks.
method Analyzing the mean hyperdegree of adjacent vertices and decomposing correlation properties.
result Identifies bias in trade relationships not visible in pairwise networks.
The worldwide trade network has been widely studied through different data sets and network representations with a view to better understanding interactions among countries and products. Here we investigate international trade through the lenses of the single-layer, multiplex, and multi-layer networks. We discuss diffe…
Based on the approach of flow distances, the international trade flow system is studied from the perspective of multi-layer flow network. A model of multi-layer flow network is proposed for modelling and analyzing multiple types of flows in flow systems. Then, flow distances are introduced, and symmetric minimum flow d…
Achieving international food security requires improved understanding of how international trade networks connect countries around the world through the import-export flows of food commodities. The properties of food trade networks are still poorly documented, especially from a multi-network perspective. In particular,…
The negative externalities from an individual bank failure to the whole system can be huge. One of the key purposes of bank regulation is to internalize the social costs of potential bank failures via capital charges. This study proposes a method to evaluate and allocate the systemic risk to different countries/regions…
This work uses a recommendation system to enhance exporting countries' fitness.
problem Predicting and optimizing the evolution of international trade networks.
method A recommendation system was used to identify overlooked products for countries.
result Countries can improve their national competitiveness by diversifying exported products.
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are powerful architectures to model sequential data, due to their capability to learn short and long-term dependencies between the basic elements of a sequence. Nonetheless, popular tasks such as speech or images recognition, involve multi-dimensional input features that are characteriz…
The \emph{World Trade Web} (WTW), the network defined by the international import/export trade relationships, has been recently shown to display some important topological properties which are tightly related to the Gross Domestic Product of world countries. While our previous analysis focused on the static, undirected…
A new SBM for non-negative zero-inflated edge weights in networks.
problem Modeling international trading networks with non-negative zero-inflated edge weights.
method Restricted Tweedie distribution and nodal information accounting.
result Efficient two-step algorithm for estimating covariate effects.
This paper is a contribution to interweaving two lines of research that have progressed in separate ways: network analyses of international trade and the literature on African trade and development. Gathering empirical data on African countries has important limitations and so does the space occupied by African countri…
DORA analyzes deep neural networks' internal representations to detect spurious correlations.
problem Detecting spurious correlations in deep neural networks' internal representations.
method DORA uses Extreme-Activation (EA) distance measure to assess representation similarities.
result Identifies internal representations capable of detecting spurious correlations.
Paper presents an algorithm to analyze DGNNs by identifying generative boundaries and sampling.
problem Challenges in identifying the generation mechanism of DGNNs.
method Explorative sampling algorithm to analyze DGNNs by defining generative boundaries and optimizing essential set.
result Empirically reveals the characteristics of DGNNs' internal layers and finds more homogeneous samples.
State construction is important for learning in partially observable environments. A general purpose strategy for state construction is to learn the state update using a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), which updates the internal state using the current internal state and the most recent observation. This internal state…
Brazil proposes a new BRICS trade currency to dominate international trade.
problem Dominance of BRICS currency in international trade.
method Mathematical model of influence battle between three currencies, using trade flows and weights in global trade.
result By 2012, about 58% of countries preferred trading with the BRICS currency.
Predicting the future evolution of complex systems is one of the main challenges in complexity science. Based on a current snapshot of a network, link prediction algorithms aim to predict its future evolution. We apply here link prediction algorithms to data on the international trade between countries. This data can b…
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are a vital modeling technique that rely on internal states learned indirectly by optimization of a supervised, unsupervised, or reinforcement training loss. RNNs are used to model dynamic processes that are characterized by underlying latent states whose form is often unknown, precludi…
Jan Tinbergen, the first recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics in 1969, obtained his PhD in physics at the University of Leiden under the supervision of Paul Ehrenfest in 1929. Among many achievements as an economist after his training as a physicist, Tinbergen proposed the so-called Gravity Model of inter…
New method learns both module structure and sequencing in neural networks.
problem Learning only the parameters and order of execution of neural modules.
method Expands the approach to learn the internal structure of modules, including the ordering and combination of arithmetic operators.
result Performance comparable to hand-designed modules achieved without extra supervisory signals.
Proposes a framework to predict stock movements by integrating multi-order and internal dynamics.
problem Predicting stock movements with multi-order and internal dynamics.
method Temporal generative filters and hypergraph attentions using wavelet basis.
result Framework outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of profit and stability.
While the authors of Batch Normalization (BN) identify and address an important problem involved in training deep networks-- Internal Covariate Shift-- the current solution has certain drawbacks. Specifically, BN depends on batch statistics for layerwise input normalization during training which makes the estimates of …
Analyzing real data on international trade covering the time interval 1950-2000, we show that in each year over the analyzed period the network is a typical representative of the ensemble of maximally random weighted networks, whose directed connections (bilateral trade volumes) are only characterized by the product of…
Due to economic globalization, each country's economic law, including tax laws and tax treaties, has been forced to work as a single network. However, each jurisdiction (country or region) has not made its economic law under the assumption that its law functions as an element of one network, so it has brought unexpecte…
A method for continual learning using world models in reinforcement learning.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in lifelong learning with neural networks.
method Interleaving internally generated episodes of past experiences (pseudo-rehearsal) with external environment's observations.
result Consistent reduction in temporal prediction loss compared to non-interleaved learning.
It is common wisdom that no nation is an isolated economic island. All nations participate in the global economy and are linked together through trade and finance. Here we analyze international trade network (ITN), being the network of import-export relationships between countries. We show that in each year over the an…
We address the problem of gauging the influence exerted by a given country on the global trade market from the viewpoint of complex networks. In particular, we apply the PWP method for computing indirect influences on the world trade network.
Financial contagion spreads through international relations, posing systemic risk.
problem Systemic risk in global financial networks due to debt crises.
method Epidemiological model applied to a network of European countries using bilateral foreign claims data.
result Countries experiencing debt crises can threaten global financial stability, akin to a 'financial virus'.
The challenge of assigning importance to individual neurons in a network is of interest when interpreting deep learning models. In recent work, Dhamdhere et al. proposed Total Conductance, a "natural refinement of Integrated Gradients" for attributing importance to internal neurons. Unfortunately, the authors found tha…
Echo state networks with random weights can approximate any continuous system.
problem Approximating continuous dynamical systems using echo state networks.
method Randomly generated internal weights and a sampling procedure for activation functions.
result Echo state networks with random weights can approximate any continuous casual time-invariant operators with high probability.