Identifies community structure in international food trade networks.
problem Understanding how international food trade networks connect countries.
method Analysis of multi-layer network, econometric models.
result Probability of country pairs being in the same food trade community depends more on geopolitical and economic factors than on economic size.
Model reconstructs and simulates international trade networks under policy changes.
problem Reconstructing and simulating international trade networks under policy changes.
method Maximizing entropy based on local trade information to reconstruct networks; simulating structural changes using trade tariffs.
result Trade networks can be successfully reconstructed and simulated under policy changes.
This study assesses how economic shocks affect the efficiency and robustness of international pesticide trade networks.
problem Economic shocks impact the efficiency and robustness of international pesticide trade networks.
method Simulations were used to quantify efficiency and robustness under different economic shocks. Three strategies were tested: descending, random, and ascending node removal.
result The international pesticide trade networks became more efficient and robust except for clustering coefficient. Import-oriented economies were more vulnerable to shocks.
Trade networks for maize, rice, soy, and wheat are more vulnerable to shocks.
problem Increased complexity in international crop trade networks makes them more susceptible to cascades of demand failures.
method Analyzed FAO data from 176 countries over 21 years to construct higher-order trade dependency networks.
result Trade networks are more prone to failure cascades caused by exogenous shocks.
The study finds that the export shares of machinery and food/crude materials are significantly correlated with GDP.
problem Understanding the relationship between export shares and GDP across different commodity sectors.
method Analysis of GDP and international trade data using the SITC classification from 1962 to 2000.
result The export shares of machinery and food/crude materials are significantly correlated with GDP, following a power-law relationship.
Discriminatory trade liberalization policies are becoming more popular among world economies. Countries are motivated to enter for regional trade agreements to capture faster economic growth for alleviating poverty. In developing economies like most of the member countries of the Association of South East Asian Nations…
Machine learning reveals key factors in Indian food inflation.
problem Understanding and mitigating food inflation in India.
method Gradient Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) analysis of multiple factors.
result MSP and farm wages are crucial in food price changes, not international prices.
One major hurdle in the road toward a low carbon economy is the present entanglement of developed economies with oil. This tight relationship is mirrored in the correlation between most of economic indicators with oil price. This paper addresses the role of oil compared to the other three main energy commodities -coal,…
Proposes a new model for clustering multiplex networks with compositional data.
problem Clustering multiplex networks with multiple types of relations and compositional data.
method Multiplex Dirichlet stochastic block model for compositional networks.
result Validated through simulation and applied to international export data.
Forecasting IDP migration helps aid groups allocate resources.
problem Accurate prediction of IDP movement during conflicts.
method Used machine learning on food price, fuel price, wage, geospatial, and news data.
result Monthly IDP flow can be forecasted one month in advance.
Study proposes hybrid machine learning models for crop yield prediction.
problem Crop yield prediction for food security.
method Hybrid machine learning models (ANN-ICA and ANN-GWO).
result ANN-GWO model outperformed ANN-ICA in crop yield prediction.
Study adapts OHLC volatility estimators for monitoring market stress in diverse settings.
problem Limited use of range-based volatility estimators in local commodity markets.
method Adapted OHLC volatility estimators to monitor market distress across various contexts.
result OHLC-based volatility indicators detect market disruptions missed by standard momentum indicators.
Paper predicts international trade flows using machine learning and factorization models.
problem Predicting international bilateral trade flows with PTAs.
method Two-stage approach combining SHAP Explainer and Factorization Machine models.
result Enhanced predictive accuracy and deeper insights into trade dynamics.
Paper uses clustering to identify food assistance deserts in Ohio.
problem Food insecurity and accessibility issues in Ohio.
method Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) clustering technique.
result Identifies food assistance deserts within Ohio.
There are few papers about the international trade of flowers, so it is believed that this paper, with this topic, could be an important contribution to the international scientific community. It is intended to analyze if the international trade flowers tendencies and policies are adapted to the actual world global con…
Trade finance history traced from medieval origins to modern markets.
problem Evolution and standardization of trade finance products.
method Historical analysis of market structures and regulatory changes.
result Global trade finance market evolved from local to centralized, then decentralized.
Here, we present the World Trade Atlas 1870-2013, a collection of annual world trade maps in which distance combines economic size and the different dimensions that affect international trade beyond mere geography. Trade distances, which are based on a gravity model predicting the existence of significant trade channel…
Bilateral trade relationships in the international level between pairs of countries in the world give rise to the notion of the International Trade Network (ITN). This network has attracted the attention of network researchers as it serves as an excellent example of the weighted networks, the link weight being defined …
Study uses Google matrix analysis to show how COVID-19 changed international trade flows.
problem Impact of COVID-19 on international trade patterns.
method Google matrix analysis of World Trade Network (WTN), including PageRank, CheiRank, and reduced Google matrix.
result Significant changes in international trade flows due to the pandemic, affecting export and import balances.
Mathematical model predicts international trade and global economy dynamics.
problem Understanding complex international trade and economy interactions.
method Developed a mathematical model for non-equilibrium processes in open systems.
result Predicted model accurately reflects international trade and economy.
Proposes a Coulomb-like model for international trade flows, fitting real-world data.
problem Describing and predicting international trade flows between countries.
method Formulated a coulomb force model where GDP represents charge and distance is influenced by various factors.
result Developed a trade strength distribution equation that fits real-world data well.
KitcheNette predicts and recommends food ingredient pairings.
problem Limited study of food ingredient pairings despite many existing pairings.
method Siamese neural networks trained on a dataset of 300K scores.
result KitcheNette outperforms other models and discovers novel pairings.
For Portugal there are few or none works about the international trade of fruits between Portugal and the other countries. In this work it aims to analyze the more recent data for the Portuguese international trade of fruits. They were used data for the years from 2006 to 2010, available by the INE (Statistics Portugal…
A new method clusters data from multiple sources using a mixture of multilayer SBMs.
problem Aggregating multiple clustering results from different data sources.
method Uses a mixture of multilayer Stochastic Block Models (SBM) to group co-membership matrices.
result Identifies and clusters observations based on their specificities within components.
Model predicts capital flow and product share dynamics in international trade.
problem Understanding how capital flows between different industrial sectors affects product shares in international trade.
method Stochastic transfer model based on observed scaling relations.
result Model accurately predicts the distribution of product shares and identifies capital condensation.
This paper studies four trading algorithms of a professional trader at a multilateral trading facility, observing a realistic two-sided limit order book whose dynamics are driven by the order book events. The identity of the trader can be either internalizing or regular, either a hedge fund or a brokery agency. The spe…
We investigate the role of networks of alliances in preventing (multilateral) interstate wars. We first show that, in the absence of international trade, no network of alliances is peaceful and stable. We then show that international trade induces peaceful and stable networks: trade increases the density of alliances s…
Study forecasts food security trends using real-time data.
problem Food insecurity prediction for sub-national regions.
method Quantitative methodology combining various machine learning models.
result Reservoir Computing model performs best in food security prediction.
The easy access to large data sets has allowed for leveraging methodology in network physics and complexity science to disentangle patterns and processes directly from the data, leading to key insights in the behavior of systems. Here we use to country specific food production data to study binary and weighted topologi…
Method determines latent dimensionality in international trade flows.
problem Finding meaningful low-dimensional latent features in high-dimensional international trade data.
method Proposes a latent dimension determination method based on clustering of nonnegative RESCAL decompositions.
result Validates the latent features against empirical economic facts.
This paper explores the relationships between migration and trade using a complex-network approach. We show that: (i) both weighted and binary versions of the networks of international migration and trade are strongly correlated; (ii) such correlations can be mostly explained by country economic/demographic size and ge…
High and volatile global food prices have led to food riots and played a critical role in triggering the Arab Spring revolutions in recent years. The severe drought in the US in the summer of 2012 led to a new increase in food prices. Through the fall, they remained at a threshold above which the riots and revolutions …
Brazil proposes a new BRICS trade currency to dominate international trade.
problem Dominance of BRICS currency in international trade.
method Mathematical model of influence battle between three currencies, using trade flows and weights in global trade.
result By 2012, about 58% of countries preferred trading with the BRICS currency.
This study explores factors and enablers of compliance risk in Vietnamese seafood supply chain.
problem Compliance risk in Vietnamese seafood supply chain.
method Comprehensive literature review and expert interviews.
result Three main critical factor groups influencing compliance risk identified.
We propose a unified modelling framework that theoretically justifies the main empirical regularities characterizing the international trade network. Each country is associated to a Polya urn whose composition controls the propensity of the country to trade with other countries. The urn composition is updated through t…
Study the structure of international trade through hypergraphs.
problem Understanding the complex relationships in international trade networks.
method Analyzing the mean hyperdegree of adjacent vertices and decomposing correlation properties.
result Identifies bias in trade relationships not visible in pairwise networks.
We consider extensive data on Spanish international trades and population composition and, through statistical-mechanics and graph-theory driven analysis, we unveil that the social network made of native and foreign-born individuals plays a role in the evolution and in the diversification of trades. Indeed, migrants na…
Recent droughts in the midwestern United States threaten to cause global catastrophe driven by a speculator amplified food price bubble. Here we show the effect of speculators on food prices using a validated quantitative model that accurately describes historical food prices. During the last six years, high and fluctu…
The paper analyzes trade dynamics among G7 countries, revealing unequal exchange and degenerate equilibrium states.
problem Unequal exchange and degenerate equilibrium states in international trade among G7 countries.
method Analysis based on a model of international trade with supply and demand structures.
result Found relative equilibrium price vector is very degenerate, indicating unequal exchange.
This paper investigates whether the gravity model (GM) can explain the statistical properties of the International Trade Network (ITN). We fit data on international-trade flows with a GM specification using alternative fitting techniques and we employ GM estimates to build a weighted predicted ITN, whose topological pr…
Study explores different network frameworks to understand global trade complexity.
problem Understanding the complexity of global trade networks.
method Investigated single-layer, multiplex, and multi-layer international trade networks using World Input-Output Database.
result Multi-layer networks reveal distinct roles of intra- and cross-industry transactions in entropy evolution.
Paper identifies food types from Yelp photos using machine learning.
problem Ineffective labeling of food photos on Yelp.
method Image pre-processing, CNN feature extraction, and classification algorithms.
result Identifies up to 10 food types from raw photos with high accuracy.
Optimal transport and neural networks improve trade modeling accuracy.
problem Capturing subtler drivers of trade beyond supply and demand.
method Employing optimal transport and deep neural networks to learn a time-dependent cost function from data.
result Consistently outperforms traditional gravity models in accuracy.
Paper compares machine learning models for food authenticity.
problem Determining correct food labelling from NIR spectroscopic data.
method Applied and compared various classification, dimension reduction, and variable selection approaches to NIR datasets of meat, olive oil, and honey samples.
result Partial least squares outperformed other approaches in classifying food authenticity.
Analyze food popularity trends using social media data.
problem Identify trends and popularity of cuisine types across space and time.
method Use off-the-shelf machine learning techniques, Kernel Density Estimation, and Bayesian Networks.
result Model dependencies among food cuisines popularity.
Deep learning system improves accuracy of food packaging date verification.
problem Improper labeling of food packaging poses health risks.
method Multi-source deep domain adaptation for domain-invariant representations and class boundary alignment.
result Significant improvement in classification accuracy of use-by date verification.
The \emph{World Trade Web} (WTW), the network defined by the international import/export trade relationships, has been recently shown to display some important topological properties which are tightly related to the Gross Domestic Product of world countries. While our previous analysis focused on the static, undirected…
Predicts food ingredient amounts from images.
problem Predicting relative amounts of ingredients from food images.
method Proposes two deep learning models for sparse and dense predictions, with semi-automatic data pre-processing.
result Encouraging experimental results on a recipe dataset.