This paper explores the relationships between migration and trade using a complex-network approach. We show that: (i) both weighted and binary versions of the networks of international migration and trade are strongly correlated; (ii) such correlations can be mostly explained by country economic/demographic size and ge…
LSTM outperforms traditional models in forecasting international migration.
problem Precise forecasting of international migration for policymaking.
method Replaced a gravity linear model with an LSTM approach using Google Trends data.
result LSTM approach combined with Google Trends data outperforms existing models.
In this paper we develop a methodology to analyze and compare multiple global networks. We focus our analysis on the relation between human migration and trade. First, we identify the subset of products for which the presence of a community of migrants significantly increases trade intensity. To assure comparability ac…
Armed conflict has led to an unprecedented number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) - individuals who are forced out of their homes but remain within their country. IDPs often urgently require shelter, food, and healthcare, yet prediction of when large fluxes of IDPs will cross into an area remains a major challen…
Migration crisis, climate change or tax havens: Global challenges need global solutions. But agreeing on a joint approach is difficult without a common ground for discussion. Public spheres are highly segmented because news are mainly produced and received on a national level. Gain- ing a global view on international d…
New spectral clustering for directed graphs reveals socio-economic patterns.
problem Spectral clustering for directed graphs is unsatisfactory due to edge directionality.
method Proposes a complex-valued matrix representation and analysis for directed graphs.
result Our approach reveals socio-economic patterns in internal migration data.
Tools of the theory of critical phenomena, namely the scaling analysis and universality, are argued to be applicable to large complex web-like network structures. Using a detailed analysis of the real data of the International Trade Network we argue that the scaled link weight distribution has an approximate log-normal…
Solves curve migration problem with elastic flows.
problem Curve migration problem with natural boundary conditions.
method Constructing migrating elastic flows.
result Extends previous work to purely local flow.
This paper introduces hierarchical quasi-clustering methods, a generalization of hierarchical clustering for asymmetric networks where the output structure preserves the asymmetry of the input data. We show that this output structure is equivalent to a finite quasi-ultrametric space and study admissibility with respect…
Study on migrating elastic flows of curves across half-planes.
problem Migrating elastic flows of curves from upper to lower half-planes.
method Analytical and numerical construction of migrating elastic flows.
result Construction of various migrating elastic flows.
Knowing and modelling the migration phenomena and especially the social and economic consequences have a theoretical and practical importance, being related to their consequences for development, economic progress (or as appropriate, regression), environmental influences etc. One of the causes of migration, especially …
Simplified matrix generator resolves credit migration model calibration issues.
problem Fundamental difficulties in calibrating Markovian credit migration models.
method Simplified matrix generator and elementary ideas from differential geometry.
result Risk-neutral calibration requires volatility information and is unstable.
Population migration is valuable information which leads to proper decision in urban-planning strategy, massive investment, and many other fields. For instance, inter-city migration is a posterior evidence to see if the government's constrain of population works, and inter-community immigration might be a prior evidenc…
The study predicts health risks of young migrants using machine learning.
problem Predicting health risks of young migrants in data-constrained environments.
method Designing a webapp for stakeholders, curating an artificially curated dataset, and experimenting with machine learning models.
result Machine learning can assist in identifying vulnerable migrants and critical factors of migration.
Modeling influenza spread using feature engineering and international flow deconvolution.
problem Predicting and mitigating influenza spread through feature extraction and international flow analysis.
method Discrete Fourier Transform, matrix completion, SVM, autoencoders, PCA, deconvolution of international flow.
result Significant environmental and economic features are crucial to influenza mortality.
Model for corporate bond pricing with credit rating migration, solving a double free boundary problem.
problem Corporate bond pricing with credit rating migration risks.
method Established a pricing model as a double free boundary problem, proving existence, uniqueness, and regularity of the solution.
result Two free boundaries are shown to be smooth and converge to a traveling wave solution as time goes to infinity.
Deep learning models predict faster dune migration in arid regions.
problem Predicting the movement of sand dunes in arid regions.
method Tested two deep learning algorithms (GAN and CNN) on simulated data from a cellular automaton model.
result Deep learning models can predict dune migration at ten million times the speed of existing models.
New model predicts grain boundary migration in metals.
problem Anisotropic grain boundary migration in polycrystals.
method Level set-finite element formulation based on thermodynamics and mechanics.
result First analytical solution for anisotropic grain boundary configurations.
The paper develops a new model for order book dynamics using Hawkes processes.
problem Capturing the dynamics of order flow and liquidity migration in financial markets.
method Develops a mesoscopic model using Hawkes processes to describe interactions between order arrivals, cancellations, and liquidity movement.
result Derives a diffusive limit for the order book dynamics, providing a unified framework for market microstructure.
The paper develops ML algorithms for calibrating credit rating transition models for high and low default portfolios.
problem Calibration of credit rating transition models for high and low default portfolios.
method Developed Maximum likelihood (ML) algorithms, including Laplace approximation for high-default portfolios and particle filter with Gaussian process regression for low-default portfolios.
result Both algorithms produce accurate approximations of the likelihood function and ML estimates of model parameters.
Optimal transport learns Riemannian metrics for evolving probability measures.
problem Learning metrics for evolving probability measures on Riemannian manifolds.
method Neural parametrization of a metric tensor via optimal transport, alternating optimization scheme.
result Improved trajectory inference on scRNA and bird migration data.
Copula models for sovereign ratings improved by incorporating climate risk.
problem Modeling nonlinear dependence and clustering in sovereign rating migrations.
method Mixed-difference transformation, MAGMAR(1,1) copula process, consistent and asymptotically normal estimators.
result Gumbel MAGMAR(1,1) specification outperforms other models in empirical performance.
Ethereum's Pectra upgrade introduces 0x02 compounding validators, offering higher stake and potential APR uplifts.
problem Staking rewards on Ethereum
method Analyzing compounding effects on consensus-layer rewards
result 0x02 validators achieve modestly higher median CL APR
Method learns cell interaction rules from individual trajectories.
problem Inferring interaction rules from heterogeneous cellular data.
method WSINDy for second order IPSs, learning individual cell models.
result Efficiently identifies different species and best-fit models for each.
Study uses Perelman and Ricci flow methods to analyze economic inequality.
problem Impact of socio-economic challenges and technological progress on economic inequality.
method Perelman model and Ricci flow methods.
result Technological innovations and social protection programs reduce inequality.
We employ stochastic dynamic microsimulations to analyse and forecast the pension cost dependency ratio for England and Wales from 1991 to 2061, evaluating the impact of the ongoing state pension reforms and changes in international migration patterns under different Brexit scenarios. To fully account for the recently …
This work aims mainly to present a project of research about the identification of the determinants that affect the mobility of labor. The empirical part of the work will be performed for the NUTS II and NUTS III of Portugal, from 1996 to 2002 and for 1991 and 2001, respectively (given the availability of statistical d…
New smart contract mechanisms evade traditional AML systems by decoupling transaction roles.
problem Current AML systems fail to track economic value migration in composable smart contracts.
method Introduce PEB separation and state-mediated value migration to demonstrate how traditional tracing fails.
result Transfer-layer observation is incomplete and causally ambiguous in composable smart contracts.
Model credit ratings using economic states with Markov chains.
problem Credit rating migration influenced by economic state changes.
method Developed a Markov chain model for credit ratings conditional on economic states.
result Derived asymptotic behavior of the rating process using Markov theory.
We present two methodologies on the estimation of rating transition probabilities within Markov and non-Markov frameworks. We first estimate a continuous-time Markov chain using discrete (missing) data and derive a simpler expression for the Fisher information matrix, reducing the computational time needed for the Wald…
A new method learns manifold-valued latents without an encoder.
problem Distorting data with intrinsic non-Euclidean structure.
method Riemannian generative decoder that learns latents directly.
result Learned representations respect the prescribed geometry and capture intrinsic non-Euclidean structure.
LFlows model fluid densities and velocities using invertible maps that satisfy the continuity equation.
problem Modeling fluid densities and velocities continuously in space and time.
method LFlows are based on invertible maps that satisfy the continuity equation, derived from classical theory of Lagrangian flows for smooth vector fields.
result LFlows show higher predictive accuracy in density modeling tasks compared to competing models in 2D and 3D.
The paper uses filtering techniques to predict rating transitions.
problem Analyzing the effect of business cycles on rating transitions.
method Point process filtering framework to infer latent factor states.
result Efficient estimation of latent factor parameters for real-time detection of economic changes.
A market with defaultable bonds where the bond dynamics is in a Heath-Jarrow-Morton setting and the forward rates are driven by an infinite number of Levy factors is considered. The setting includes rating migrations driven by a Markov chain. All basic types of recovery are investigated. We formulate necessary and suff…
SAGE generates subsurface velocity models from sparse well logs and seismic images.
problem Lack of high-quality subsurface velocity models due to limited data availability.
method Subsurface AI-driven geostatistical extraction using proxy posterior.
result SAGE produces geologically plausible and statistically accurate velocity realizations.
Internal Lagrangians derived from variational principles.
problem Reproducing the principle of stationary action in variational geometry.
method Introducing stationary points of internal Lagrangians, establishing connections with symmetries and conservation laws, and investigating relations between non-degenerate and internal Lagrangians.
result Noether's theorem reformulated in terms of internal Lagrangians.
Model predicts internal fraud in retail banking is cyclical and influenced by corruption.
problem Predicting and mitigating internal fraud losses in retail banking.
method Developed a dynamic model considering internal factors and macroeconomic indicators.
result Internal fraud losses are pro-cyclical and positively affected by corruption perceptions.
This paper considers networks where relationships between nodes are represented by directed dissimilarities. The goal is to study methods for the determination of hierarchical clusters, i.e., a family of nested partitions indexed by a connectivity parameter, induced by the given dissimilarity structures. Our constructi…
Quantum computing poses a threat to Bitcoin and Ethereum, but only to spending and not mining.
problem Quantum computing threat to Bitcoin and Ethereum
method Separation of Shor's and Grover's quantum algorithms
result Quantum algorithms' impact on Bitcoin and Ethereum
Examines international taxation's impact on Georgian businesses.
problem Impact of international taxation on Georgian business entities.
method Analyzes types, features, and approaches of international taxation.
result Provides recommendations to correct current taxation issues.
Optimized execution model using interbank and internal liquidity.
problem Minimizing market impact in trading.
method Integrates interbank limit and market orders with internal market-making liquidity.
result Reduces market impact and improves execution efficiency.
This study assesses how economic shocks affect the efficiency and robustness of international pesticide trade networks.
problem Economic shocks impact the efficiency and robustness of international pesticide trade networks.
method Simulations were used to quantify efficiency and robustness under different economic shocks. Three strategies were tested: descending, random, and ascending node removal.
result The international pesticide trade networks became more efficient and robust except for clustering coefficient. Import-oriented economies were more vulnerable to shocks.
There are few papers about the international trade of flowers, so it is believed that this paper, with this topic, could be an important contribution to the international scientific community. It is intended to analyze if the international trade flowers tendencies and policies are adapted to the actual world global con…
Spain uses DEA to select international markets for exports.
problem Choosing the best international markets for Spanish exports.
method Output-oriented DEA model considering multiple validated inputs and outputs.
result Identifies efficient regions generating higher benefits with lower costs.
Given that South African education is in crisis, strategies for improvement and sustainability of high-quality, up-to-date education must be explored. In the migration of education online, inclusion of machine translation for low-resourced local languages becomes necessary. This paper aims to spur the use of current ne…
Improved speech recognition model with better performance.
problem Speech recognition accuracy on Librispeech.
method Integrates an external language model with an internal LM correction.
result Over 14% relative improvement in performance.
We consider the problem of constructing an appropriate multivariate model for the study of the counterparty credit risk in credit rating migration problem. For this financial problem different multivariate Markov chain models were proposed. However the markovian assumption may be inappropriate for the study of the dyna…
Introduces internal Lagrangians for differential equations and connects them to presymplectic structures.
problem Understanding the geometry of differential equations and their solutions.
method Develops a spectral sequence related to internal Lagrangians and investigates connections to presymplectic structures.
result Interprets a term in Vinogradov's spectral sequence for gauge theories.