A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study of influenza A virus spread using mathematical equations.
Modeling influenza spread using feature engineering and international flow deconvolution.
Seasonal influenza infects between 10 and 50 million people in the United States every year, overburdening hospitals during weeks of peak incidence. Named by the CDC as an important tool to fight the damaging effects of these epidemics, accurate forecasts of influenza and influenza-like illness (ILI) forewarn public he…
Avian Influenza breakouts cause millions of dollars in damage each year globally, especially in Asian countries such as China and South Korea. The impact magnitude of a breakout directly correlates to time required to fully understand the influenza virus, particularly the interspecies pathogenicity. The procedure requi…
We introduce the use of a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) for influenza prediction at the state- and city-level in the US, and experiment with the inclusion of real-time flu-related Internet search data. We find that a GRU has lower prediction error than current state-of-the-art methods for data-driven influenza prediction …
Accurate real-time tracking of influenza outbreaks helps public health officials make timely and meaningful decisions that could save lives. We propose an influenza tracking model, ARGO (AutoRegression with GOogle search data), that uses publicly available online search data. In addition to having a rigorous statistica…
Flusion combines multiple data sources to improve flu forecasts.
Emergenet predicts animal influenza strain emergence, outperforming current methods.
Accurate real-time monitoring systems of influenza outbreaks help public health officials make informed decisions that may help save lives. We show that information extracted from cloud-based electronic health records databases, in combination with machine learning techniques and historical epidemiological information,…
New method uses Transformers for flu forecasting.
MutaGAN predicts mutations of evolving protein populations using GANs.
Bayesian consensus improves accuracy of forecasts from miscalibrated sources.
Paper proposes a graph neural network for accurate long-term ILI prediction.
Conventional surveillance systems for monitoring infectious diseases, such as influenza, face challenges due to shortage of skilled healthcare professionals, remoteness of communities and absence of communication infrastructures. Internet-based approaches for surveillance are appealing logistically as well as economica…
While machine learning is rapidly being developed and deployed in health settings such as influenza prediction, there are critical challenges in using data from one environment in another due to variability in features; even within disease labels there can be differences (e.g. "fever" may mean something different repor…
Accurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease dynamics can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this task, using different model structures, covariates, and targets for prediction. Expe…
Estimates effect sizes and power from a pilot experiment.
WeatherFormer learns robust weather features from small datasets.
Social media signals have been successfully used to develop large-scale predictive and anticipatory analytics. For example, forecasting stock market prices and influenza outbreaks. Recently, social data has been explored to forecast price fluctuations of cryptocurrencies, which are a novel disruptive technology with si…
Viral zoonoses have emerged as the key drivers of recent pandemics. Human infection by zoonotic viruses are either spillover events -- isolated infections that fail to cause a widespread contagion -- or species jumps, where successful adaptation to the new host leads to a pandemic. Despite expensive bio-surveillance ef…
Improved county-level COVID-19 forecasting model using LSTM and data augmentation.
Social media services such as Twitter are a valuable source of information for decision support systems. Many studies have shown that this also holds for the medical domain, where Twitter is considered a viable tool for public health officials to sift through relevant information for the early detection, management, an…
Syndromic surveillance detects and monitors individual and population health indicators through sources such as emergency department records. Automated classification of these records can improve outbreak detection speed and diagnosis accuracy. Current syndromic systems rely on hand-coded keyword-based methods to parse…
A new method combines ANN and Laplace for fast Bayesian inference in ODE models.