Study examines time-varying betas and their volatility in bank interest income and expense margins.
problem Understanding the variability of bank betas and their impact on net interest margins.
method Used state-space methods to estimate time-varying betas and conditional volatility.
result Substantial variation in interest income and expense betas, leading to varying net interest margin coefficients.
The paper proposes a scalable framework for uncertainty quantification and propagation in surrogate-based Bayesian inference.
problem Uncertainty in surrogate models and its impact on inference and decision-making.
method Bayesian inference methods for surrogate models with measurement data.
result Scalable framework for uncertainty quantification and propagation in surrogate models.
A new MCMC method combines low and high-fidelity models to reduce computation.
problem Inefficient computation of expensive target densities in scientific applications.
method Pseudo-marginal MCMC approach using a telescoping series of low-fidelity models.
result Asymptotically exact multi-fidelity MCMC algorithms for reduced computational cost.
UA-SABI uses surrogates to speed up Bayesian inference for expensive models.
problem Inference for computationally expensive models is slow and uncertain.
method Combines surrogate modeling with Amortized Bayesian Inference (ABI) to propagate uncertainties.
result Reliable, fast, and repeated Bayesian inference for expensive models is achieved.
Bayesian optimization tackles non-convex, two-stage stochastic problems efficiently.
problem Solving non-convex, two-stage stochastic optimization problems with expensive, black-box evaluations.
method Knowledge-gradient-based acquisition function for joint optimization of first- and second-stage variables.
result Comparable and superior empirical results compared to alternatives.
Due to their high degree of expressiveness, neural networks have recently been used as surrogate models for mapping inputs of an engineering system to outputs of interest. Once trained, neural networks are computationally inexpensive to evaluate and remove the need for repeated evaluations of computationally expensive …
USeMOC framework reduces expensive simulations for MO optimization with constraints.
problem Efficiently optimizing multi-objective problems with constraints using expensive function evaluations.
method USeMOC framework uses surrogate models to identify promising candidates and selects the best based on uncertainty.
result USeMOC achieves more than 90% reduction in function evaluations for circuit optimization.
Proposes a new method to approximate Bayesian predictive uncertainty.
problem Bayesian uncertainty quantification in model predictions.
method Self-supervised learning approach to approximate posterior predictive distribution.
result SSLA and ASSLA outperform classical Laplace approximations in predictive calibration.
This paper improves prediction uncertainty estimation by inferring variation from neuron activation strength.
problem Estimating prediction uncertainty from ensemble methods is expensive and inaccurate.
method Introduced randomness into model training and inferred prediction variation from neuron activation strength.
result Average R squared on MovieLens is 0.56 and on Criteo is 0.81, with strong performance in variation detection.
Estimating arbitrary quantities of interest (QoIs) that are non-linear operators of complex, expensive-to-evaluate, black-box functions is a challenging problem due to missing domain knowledge and finite budgets. Bayesian optimal design of experiments (BODE) is a family of methods that identify an optimal design of exp…
Bayesian neural networks improve simulation-based inference with limited data.
problem Inaccurate inference in data-poor regimes with limited or expensive simulations.
method Bayesian neural networks for posterior approximation, accounting for computational uncertainty.
result Bayesian neural networks produce well-calibrated posteriors with few simulations.
Develops multi-modal neural network models for improved prediction and uncertainty quantification.
problem Improving prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification for multi-modal data.
method Multi-modal Bayesian neural network models with conjugate last-layer estimation using SVI.
result Improved prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to uni-modal models.
In recent years, deep learning has proven to be a viable methodology for surrogate modeling and uncertainty quantification for a vast number of physical systems. However, in their traditional form, such models can require a large amount of training data. This is of particular importance for various engineering and scie…
When approximating a black-box function, sampling with active learning focussing on regions with non-linear responses tends to improve accuracy. We present the FLOLA-Voronoi method introduced previously for deterministic responses, and theoretically derive the impact of output uncertainty. The algorithm automatically p…
The paper addresses pricing interest rate derivatives in markets with volatility uncertainty.
problem Pricing interest rate derivatives under uncertainty about volatility.
method Modeling volatility uncertainty with G-Brownian motion and defining forward sublinear expectation.
result Developed robust pricing formulas for interest rate derivatives.
We present a new method for uncertainty estimation and out-of-distribution detection in neural networks with softmax output. We extend softmax layer with an additional constant input. The corresponding additional output is able to represent the uncertainty of the network. The proposed method requires neither additional…
LOL-GP model improves surrogate modeling of expensive simulators.
problem Costly computer simulations for complex systems.
method Local transfer learning Gaussian process.
result Improved surrogate performance over existing methods.
Single-pass method estimates neural network uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty estimation in deep learning requires multiple passes.
method Probabilistic reasoning over neural network depths.
result Single forward pass for uncertainty estimation.
Novel CE-method variants reduce local minima convergence with fewer function evaluations.
problem Local minima and expensive function evaluations in optimization.
method Surrogate model-based CE-method variants to reduce local minima convergence.
result Surrogate model-based approach reduces local minima convergence using fewer function evaluations.
Gradient-free method reduces dimensionality without gradients for expensive models.
problem Reducing high-dimensional input spaces for expensive models without gradient information.
method Fully Bayesian, gradient-free approach using Gaussian processes.
result Improves active subspace recovery and probabilistic prediction accuracy with limited data.
RMFGP combines multi-fidelity models for efficient uncertainty quantification.
problem Efficiently infer quantities of interest with limited high-fidelity data.
method Rotated multi-fidelity Gaussian process with dimension reduction and Bayesian active learning.
result RMFGP model improves accuracy and efficiency in high-dimensional problems.
Single linear solve combines surface reconstruction and uncertainty quantification.
problem Reconstructing surfaces from partial point clouds with uncertainty.
method Geometric Gaussian processes for stochastic surface reconstruction.
result Single linear solve for surface reconstruction with probabilistic capabilities.
New method reduces uncertainty in AI-driven Monte Carlo simulations.
problem Epistemic uncertainty in AI surrogate models affects Monte Carlo sampling outcomes.
method Penalty Ensemble Method (PEM) modifies Metropolis acceptance rule to increase rejection probability in uncertain regions.
result PEM enhances reliability of Monte Carlo simulations by reducing uncertainty propagation.
BLADE uses Bayesian methods to discover complex systems from scarce data.
problem Efficiently discovering governing equations of complex dynamical systems from limited data.
method Combines replica-exchange stochastic gradient Langevin Monte Carlo with active learning.
result Reduces measurement requirements by 60% for Lotka-Volterra and 40% for Burgers' equation.
Model based predictions of future trajectories of a dynamical system often suffer from inaccuracies, forcing model based control algorithms to re-plan often, thus being computationally expensive, suboptimal and not reliable. In this work, we propose a model agnostic method for estimating the uncertainty of a model?s pr…
Accurately estimating uncertainties in neural network predictions is of great importance in building trusted DNNs-based models, and there is an increasing interest in providing accurate uncertainty estimation on many tasks, such as security cameras and autonomous driving vehicles. In this paper, we focus on the two mai…
Simple neural net outperforms complex uncertainty methods.
problem Reliable uncertainty estimation from deterministic models.
method A simple baseline using a single softmax neural net with residual connections and spectral normalization.
result Simple neural net outperforms DUQ and SNGP on uncertainty prediction.
Fast estimates of model uncertainty are required for many robust robotics applications. Deep Ensembles provides state of the art uncertainty without requiring Bayesian methods, but still it is computationally expensive. In this paper we propose deep sub-ensembles, an approximation to deep ensembles where the core idea …
We consider the problem of estimating the set of all inputs that leads a system to some particular behavior. The system is modeled by an expensive-to-evaluate function, such as a computer experiment, and we are interested in its excursion set, i.e. the set of points where the function takes values above or below some p…
The paper develops methods to assess and correct model uncertainties in graphical models.
problem Model uncertainty in probabilistic graphical models.
method Information-theoretic and non-parametric stress tests.
result Ranking and correcting impactful sources of uncertainty in graphical models.
Computer simulations are invaluable tools for scientific discovery. However, accurate simulations are often slow to execute, which limits their applicability to extensive parameter exploration, large-scale data analysis, and uncertainty quantification. A promising route to accelerate simulations by building fast emulat…
This work surveys unsupervised learning methods for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification in complex PDEs.
problem Uncertainty quantification in high-dimensional stochastic inputs of complex PDEs.
method Review and investigation of thirteen dimension reduction methods including linear and nonlinear, spectral, blind source separation, convex and non-convex methods.
result Manifold PCE (m-PCE) provides a cost-effective approach compared to deep neural network-based surrogates.
New methods accelerate NCGP inference by trading computation for uncertainty.
problem Prohibitively expensive exact inference in NCGPs for large datasets.
method Iterative methods explicitly modeling approximation error, leveraging parallel computing.
result Significant acceleration of posterior inference compared to baselines.
Paper introduces efficient uncertainty estimation in LLMs without multiple forward passes.
problem Accurate uncertainty quantification in LLMs remains challenging.
method Evidential Knowledge Distillation to create compact student models.
result Efficient uncertainty estimation achieved with single forward pass.
Deep neural networks (NNs) are powerful black box predictors that have recently achieved impressive performance on a wide spectrum of tasks. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in NNs is a challenging and yet unsolved problem. Bayesian NNs, which learn a distribution over weights, are currently the state-of-the-art for …
Framework optimizes multiple objectives considering input uncertainty.
problem Efficiently optimizing multiple objectives with input uncertainty.
method Robust Gaussian Process model and two-stage Bayesian optimization process.
result Found a robust Pareto frontier considering input uncertainty.
Deep learning predicts uncertainty to optimize Eurodollar futures trading.
problem Optimizing investment size in high-frequency Eurodollar futures trading.
method Deep learning models to estimate prediction uncertainty, scaling investment size.
result Clear outperformance with Sharpe ratio metric compared to alternative strategies.
Bayesian framework for identifying localized regions of interest in dynamical systems.
problem Identifying regions of high-resolution uncertainty quantification in complex dynamical systems.
method Bayesian inference with Gaussian process surrogate and polynomial chaos expansion.
result Unified computational scheme reduces overall cost for uncertainty quantification.
Many expensive black-box optimisation problems are sensitive to their inputs. In these problems it makes more sense to locate a region of good designs, than a single-possibly fragile-optimal design. Expensive black-box functions can be optimised effectively with Bayesian optimisation, where a Gaussian process is a popu…
Machine learning helps create accurate models of neutron star postmerger signals.
problem Creating accurate postmerger waveforms for binary neutron stars is challenging due to theoretical uncertainties and limited numerical simulations.
method Used a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) to construct postmerger models based on numerical-relativity simulations.
result The CVAE can accurately generate postmerger waveforms and encode the neutron star equation of state.
MF BO combines MFO and BO to optimize expensive problems.
problem Expensive engineering design optimization problems.
method Gaussian process-based multi-fidelity surrogates and acquisition functions.
result Structured understanding of MF BO.
In statistical dialogue management, the dialogue manager learns a policy that maps a belief state to an action for the system to perform. Efficient exploration is key to successful policy optimisation. Current deep reinforcement learning methods are very promising but rely on epsilon-greedy exploration, thus subjecting…
A new method reduces bootstrap simulation cost and improves accuracy.
problem Efficiently simulating input uncertainty with large sample sizes.
method Orthogonal Bootstrap: Decomposes into Infinitesimal Jackknife and orthogonal parts.
result Significantly reduces computational cost and maintains accuracy.
This study examines how neural network latent representations correlate with model uncertainty.
problem Detecting model uncertainty in neural networks.
method Empirical verification and analysis of latent representations' distribution and conditional output.
result Deep layers in neural networks can infer uncertainty similar to more computationally expensive methods.
Ribbon: Scalable Approximation and Robust Uncertainty Quantification
problem Reliably quantifying predictive uncertainty for complex models
method Ribbon, a scalable approximation to Dirichlet-reweighted bootstrap uncertainty
result Asymptotically equivalent to a flat-prior Laplace approximation under correct likelihood specification, recovers robust sandwich covariance under misspecification
Spatio-temporal data and processes are prevalent across a wide variety of scientific disciplines. These processes are often characterized by nonlinear time dynamics that include interactions across multiple scales of spatial and temporal variability. The data sets associated with many of these processes are increasing …
This paper presents efficient sampling methods for Gaussian processes.
problem High cost of global sensitivity analysis and optimization due to limited high-quality observations.
method Two sampling methods: random Fourier features and pathwise conditioning.
result Efficient generation of posterior samples from Gaussian processes at reduced computational cost.
GAPA method provides efficient uncertainty quantification for pretrained networks.
problem Reliable uncertainty estimates for pretrained models are challenging.
method Post-hoc Gaussian Process Activations (GAPA) method that shifts Bayesian modeling from weights to activations.
result GAPA method provides efficient uncertainty quantification without altering the backbone's predictions.