Generative model combines shape and intensity priors for left atrium segmentation.
problem Challenges in segmenting left atrium MRI images due to shape variation and multimodality.
method Generative image model with mixture of Gaussians for shape priors and autoencoders for intensity priors.
result Maximizes posterior probability using a mixture of Gaussians for shape priors and autoencoders for intensity priors.
Combines spatial context priors with data term for better dendritic spine segmentation.
problem Poor segmentation results due to overlapping pixel intensity distributions.
method Combines nonparametric context priors with learned-intensity data term and nonparametric shape priors.
result Significant improvements in dendritic spine segmentation.
A new method for brain tissue segmentation across medical centers using a smoothness prior.
problem Tissue segmentation challenges due to center-specific acquisition protocols.
method Developed a smoothness prior that is fit to segmentations from another medical center, integrated into an unsupervised Bayesian model.
result Segmentations are similarly smooth across centers, improving generalization.
In this paper we provide theoretical support for the so-called "Sigmoidal Gaussian Cox Process" approach to learning the intensity of an inhomogeneous Poisson process on a d-dimensional domain. This method was proposed by Adams, Murray and MacKay (ICML, 2009), who developed a tractable computational approach and show…
Study adaptive sensing of Cox processes using posterior sampling and positive bases.
problem Adaptive sensing of Cox point processes with intensity function modeling.
method Model intensity function as truncated Gaussian process in positive basis, use Langevin dynamics and posterior sampling.
result Demonstrated improved sensing compared to classical Bayesian experimental design.
Bayesian nonparametric Hawkes process model with EM-variational inference.
problem Limited model flexibility in classical Hawkes processes.
method Gaussian process modulated Hawkes process with EM-variational inference.
result Recover underlying baseline intensity and triggering kernel without parametric restriction.
An efficient method to price bonds with optional sinking feature is presented. Such instruments equip their issuer with the option (but not the obligation) to redeem parts of the notional prior to maturity, therefore the future cash flows are random. In a one-factor model for the issuer's default intensity we show that…
We generalize the log Gaussian Cox process (LGCP) framework to model multiple correlated point data jointly. The observations are treated as realizations of multiple LGCPs, whose log intensities are given by linear combinations of latent functions drawn from Gaussian process priors. The combination coefficients are als…
We consider the problem of learning the inhomogeneous intensity of a counting process, under a sparse segmentation assumption. We introduce a weighted total-variation penalization, using data-driven weights that correctly scale the penalization along the observation interval. We prove that this leads to a sharp tuning …
Proposes a model for predicting events from event streams.
problem Predicting events like part replacement and failure in manufacturing and teleservice systems.
method Non-parametric prognostic framework using MGCP modulated Poisson processes.
result MGCP prior facilitates sharing of information and analysis of flexible event patterns.
We present an approximate Bayesian inference approach for estimating the intensity of an inhomogeneous Poisson process, where the intensity function is modelled using a Gaussian process (GP) prior via a sigmoid link function. Augmenting the model using a latent marked Poisson process and Pólya--Gamma random variables w…
Bayesian priors improve neural network performance on weak signals.
problem Challenges in encoding domain knowledge for weak signals in neural networks.
method Proposed a new joint prior over local scale parameters for feature sparsity and signal-to-noise ratio, optimized with Stein gradient.
result Improved prediction accuracy on various datasets, including genetics applications with weak and sparse signals.
Machine Learning models have been shown to be vulnerable to adversarial examples, ie. the manipulation of data by a attacker to defeat a defender's classifier at test time. We present a novel probabilistic definition of adversarial examples in perfect or limited knowledge setting using prior probability distributions o…
Paper forecasts corporate default risk using Particle MCMC with expert opinions.
problem Predicting corporate default risk in the U.S. market.
method Bayesian approach with Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (Particle MCMC) algorithm.
result Volatility and mean reversion of hidden factor significantly impact default intensities.
Patch priors have become an important component of image restoration. A powerful approach in this category of restoration algorithms is the popular Expected Patch Log-Likelihood (EPLL) algorithm. EPLL uses a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) prior learned on clean image patches as a way to regularize degraded patches. In th…
The edge partition model (EPM) is a fundamental Bayesian nonparametric model for extracting an overlapping structure from binary matrix. The EPM adopts a gamma process (ΓP) prior to automatically shrink the number of active atoms. However, we empirically found that the model shrinkage of the EPM does not typically wo…
P-BO reduces black-box adversarial attacks by 10x with Bayesian optimization and function prior.
problem Efficiently generating adversarial examples against black-box models.
method Prior-guided Bayesian Optimization (P-BO) with a function prior initialized from a surrogate model.
result Significantly reduces the number of queries needed for adversarial attacks.
Proposes a new method to control FDR using frequentist-assisted horseshoe for high-dimensional testing.
problem Designing tests with frequentist false discovery rate control using horseshoe prior.
method Frequentist-assisted horseshoe procedure for high-dimensional normal means testing.
result Consistently achieves robust finite-sample FDR control in various sparse cases.
In this paper, we present a multi-period trading model by assuming that traders face not only asymmetric information but also heterogenous prior beliefs, under the requirement that the insider publicly disclose his stock trades after the fact. We show that there is an equilibrium in which the irrational insider camoufl…
A scalable framework for inference in continuous Cox processes using Gaussian processes.
problem Inference in inhomogeneous Poisson processes with continuous intensity functions.
method Structured variational approximation of likelihood through augmentation with superposition of Poisson processes.
result Structured variational approximation captures dependencies across variables and outperforms mean-field methods and sampling schemes.
Improved MRI head anatomy segmentation using deep learning with multiple priors.
problem Challenges in segmenting head anatomy in MRI, especially with lesions.
method Added three types of prior information to a 3D convolutional network: spatial priors, morphological priors, and spatial context.
result Multiprior network improves segmentation performance, especially for abnormal anatomies.
We present a new, fully generative model of optical telescope image sets, along with a variational procedure for inference. Each pixel intensity is treated as a Poisson random variable, with a rate parameter dependent on latent properties of stars and galaxies. Key latent properties are themselves random, with scientif…
Modeling latent dynamics in high-dimensional event sequences without prior knowledge.
problem Modeling latent dynamics in high-dimensional event sequences with unknown marker relations.
method Adversarial imitation learning framework decomposed into latent structural intensity model, efficient random walk model, and seq2seq discriminator.
result Effective detection of hidden network among markers and decent prediction for future events.
Neural Diffusion Intensity Models simplify Cox processes inference.
problem Intractable nonparametric estimation and posterior inference of latent stochastic intensity in Cox processes.
method Variational framework using neural SDEs, with theoretical guarantee of ELBO maximization coinciding with maximum likelihood estimation.
result Accurate recovery of latent intensity dynamics and posterior paths with significant speedup.
We consider the problem of transforming samples from one continuous source distribution into samples from another target distribution. We demonstrate with optimal transport theory that when the source distribution can be easily sampled from and the target distribution is log-concave, this can be tractably solved with c…
Navigated 2D multi-slice dynamic Magnetic Resonance (MR) imaging enables high contrast 4D MR imaging during free breathing and provides in-vivo observations for treatment planning and guidance. Navigator slices are vital for retrospective stacking of 2D data slices in this method. However, they also prolong the acquisi…
Examines GARCH intensity model for risk-neutral option pricing.
problem Volatility clustering, leverage effect, and conditional asymmetry in financial returns.
method Risk-neutral option pricing method under GARCH intensity model.
result Flexibility in volatility changes according to probability measure.
Bayesian framework explains price formation with learning and market impact.
problem Understanding how prices form in markets with informed participants.
method Introduces a Bayesian model for updating priors on efficient prices.
result Exponential intensities for aggressive order arrivals are a natural outcome.
Human activity recognition using smart home sensors is one of the bases of ubiquitous computing in smart environments and a topic undergoing intense research in the field of ambient assisted living. The increasingly large amount of data sets calls for machine learning methods. In this paper, we introduce a deep learnin…
Bayesian approach for inhomogeneous Poisson process intensity estimation.
problem Intractable integral in likelihood of Gaussian Cox process.
method Joint modeling of intensity and cumulative intensity as transformed Gaussian process; exact MCMC sampler.
result Exact posterior inference without approximations.
Method uses deep learning to estimate traffic intensity.
problem Estimating stochastic intensity of traffic processes.
method Deep neural networks for nonlinear filtering.
result Deep learning method accurately estimates traffic intensity.
A new kernel method improves Poisson process intensity estimation.
problem Estimating intensity functions of inhomogeneous Poisson processes.
method Kernel method-based intensity estimator using least squares loss.
result K2IE achieves comparable predictive performance with improved efficiency. Study identifies two borrowing patterns in UK payday loan users.
problem Financial vulnerability of payday loan users.
method Two-state hidden Markov model (HMM) using Open Banking data.
result 36.4% of borrowers experience high-intensity exposure for 12 weeks or more.
Model predicts terror attacks' likelihood and casualties.
problem Predicting terror attacks' likelihood and casualties.
method Self-exciting marked spatio-temporal model with Gaussian Process prior.
result Model accurately predicts future attacks with various covariates.
Model predicts bid and ask price dynamics with spread-dependent intensities.
problem Predicting bid and ask price dynamics in high-frequency stock markets.
method Extended Hawkes process with zero intensities, spread-dependent intensities, and negative excitement.
result Spread-narrowing tendency, excitations caused by previous events, impact of flash crashes, and different market participant features.
This paper discusses properties of a Doubly Stochastic Poisson Process (DSPP) where the intensity process belongs to a class of affine diffusions. For any intensity process from this class we derive an analytical expression for probability distribution functions of the corresponding DSPP. A specification of our results…
Intensity augmentation improves breast MRI segmentation accuracy.
problem Improving segmentation accuracy across different MRI scanners and protocols.
method Applied intensity augmentation in addition to geometric augmentation during training.
result Increased segmentation performance from 0.71 to 0.90.
We provide analytical pricing formula of corporate defaultable bond with both expected and unexpected default in the case with stochastic default intensity. In the case with constant short rate and exogenous default recovery using PDE method, we gave some pricing formula of the defaultable bond under the conditions tha…
New models directly model inter-event times without intensity functions.
problem Learning temporal point processes with intensity-based approaches.
method Normalizing flows and mixture models for flexible and efficient modeling.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance in prediction tasks.
We propose a novel method for automatic pain intensity estimation from facial images based on the framework of kernel Conditional Ordinal Random Fields (KCORF). We extend this framework to account for heteroscedasticity on the output labels(i.e., pain intensity scores) and introduce a novel dynamic features, dynamic ra…
In this paper we introduce a sublinear conditional expectation with respect to a family of possibly nondominated probability measures on a progressively enlarged filtration. In this way, we extend the classic reduced-form setting for credit and insurance markets to the case under model uncertainty, when we consider a f…
The paper analyzes multivariate Hawkes processes and their induced population processes.
problem Analyzing the time-dependent joint probability distribution of multivariate Hawkes processes.
method Exact and asymptotic analysis of general multivariate Hawkes processes and their induced population processes.
result Full characterization of the time-dependent joint transform of the multivariate population process and its intensity process.
BKP R package models spatially varying binomial probabilities efficiently.
problem Modeling spatially varying binomial probabilities efficiently.
method Beta Kernel Process (BKP) combining localized kernel-weighted likelihoods with conjugate beta priors.
result Closed-form posterior inference without requiring latent variables or intensive MCMC sampling.
Bayesian neural network improves ICU patient risk prediction and feature selection.
problem Predicting patient outcomes in ICU with limited interpretability.
method Sparse Bayesian neural network with feature selection.
result Model provides interpretable feature importance for mortality prediction.
New method models intensity functions on spheres using normalizing flows.
problem Modeling non-homogeneous Poisson process intensity functions on the sphere.
method Flexible bijective map using normalizing flows to transform intensity functions.
result Normalizing flows provide a flexible way to model intensity functions on spheres.
Neural networks learn distance-based representations, not just intensity.
problem Understanding how neural networks interpret and learn from internal activations.
method Manipulated ReLU and Absolute Value activations to observe sensitivity to distance and intensity perturbations.
result Neural networks are highly sensitive to small distance-based perturbations, challenging the intensity-based interpretation.
Proposes a flexible neural network model for temporal point processes.
problem Limited expressiveness of RNN-based models for temporal point processes.
method Integrates intensity function using a feedforward neural network and calculates it as its derivative.
result Achieves competitive or superior performance compared to previous methods.
New findings allow infinite mean intensity Hawkes processes to be stable.
problem Stability condition for Hawkes processes with infinite mean intensity.
method Analysis of Quadratic Hawkes processes with infinite mean intensity.
result Quadratic Hawkes processes are always stationary with infinite mean intensity when total endogeneity ratio exceeds unity.