A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A new kernel method improves Poisson process intensity estimation.
Method uses deep learning to estimate traffic intensity.
We propose a novel method for automatic pain intensity estimation from facial images based on the framework of kernel Conditional Ordinal Random Fields (KCORF). We extend this framework to account for heteroscedasticity on the output labels(i.e., pain intensity scores) and introduce a novel dynamic features, dynamic ra…
Neural Diffusion Intensity Models simplify Cox processes inference.
Bayesian approach for inhomogeneous Poisson process intensity estimation.
New method models intensity functions on spheres using normalizing flows.
We introduce a Cox-type model for relative intensities of orders flows in a limit order book. The model assumes that all intensities share a common baseline intensity, which may for example represent the global market activity. Parameters can be estimated by quasi likelihood maximization, without any interference from …
Estimation of the intensity of a point process is considered within a nonparametric framework. The intensity measure is unknown and depends on covariates, possibly many more than the observed number of jumps. Only a single trajectory of the counting process is observed. Interest lies in estimating the intensity conditi…
The paper uses facial keypoints to estimate post-surgical pain intensity.
This paper discusses properties of a Doubly Stochastic Poisson Process (DSPP) where the intensity process belongs to a class of affine diffusions. For any intensity process from this class we derive an analytical expression for probability distribution functions of the corresponding DSPP. A specification of our results…
Extends Hawkes process for flexible residual modeling in point processes.
Exact simulation method for market impact estimation under various execution strategies.
Framework for continuous-time network data representation learning.
We propose a direction of arrival (DOA) estimation method that combines sound-intensity vector (IV)-based DOA estimation and DNN-based denoising and dereverberation. Since the accuracy of IV-based DOA estimation degrades due to environmental noise and reverberation, two DNNs are used to remove such effects from the obs…
Introduces a new Hawkes model with CARMA(p,q) intensity to better model dependence structures.
Novel model for predicting event intensities from static and time series data.
New model estimates higher-order interactions in stochastic processes using lower-dimensional projections.
Develops a method to model multivariate count processes with Cox processes and shot noise intensities.
Proposes a deep neural network for event intensity estimation.
Adaptive importance sampling for estimating point process statistics.
In an asset return series there is a conditional asymmetric dependence between current return and past volatility depending on the current return's sign. To take into account the conditional asymmetry, we introduce new models for asset return dynamics in which frequencies of the up and down movements of asset price hav…
Temporal point processes are the dominant paradigm for modeling sequences of events happening at irregular intervals. The standard way of learning in such models is by estimating the conditional intensity function. However, parameterizing the intensity function usually incurs several trade-offs. We show how to overcome…
HYVINT generates hypergraphs with intensity-driven incidence formation and variational learning.
In classical Hawkes process, the baseline intensity and triggering kernel are assumed to be a constant and parametric function respectively, which limits the model flexibility. To generalize it, we present a fully Bayesian nonparametric model, namely Gaussian process modulated Hawkes process and propose an EM-variation…
Paper develops a method to predict spatial point processes with guarantees.
We propose a parametric model for the simulation of limit order books. We assume that limit orders, market orders and cancellations are submitted according to point processes with state-dependent intensities. We propose new functional forms for these intensities, as well as new models for the placement of limit orders …
We consider the class of optimization problems arising from computationally intensive L1-regularized M-estimators, where the function or gradient values are very expensive to compute. A particular instance of interest is the L1-regularized MLE for learning Conditional Random Fields (CRFs), which are a popular class of …
In this paper, we are presenting a method for estimation of market parameters modeled by jump diffusion process. The method proposed is based on Gibbs sampler, while the market parameters are the drift, the volatility, the jump intensity and its rate of occurrence. Demonstration on how to use these parameters to estima…
New method estimates tempered stable Lévy models with high accuracy.
Study exact community detection in k-community Gaussian mixtures with different intensities.
We propose clustering algorithms based on a recently developed geometric digraph family called cluster catch digraphs (CCDs). These digraphs are used to devise clustering methods that are hybrids of density-based and graph-based clustering methods. CCDs are appealing digraphs for clustering, since they estimate the num…
We propose an efficient method for estimating covariate effects in doubly-stochastic spatial models.
New methods for calculating credit valuation adjustment with reduced noise and faster computation.
In this study, we develop a deterministic nonlinear filtering algorithm based on a high-dimensional version of Kitagawa (1987) to evaluate the likelihood function of models that allow for stochastic volatility and jumps whose arrival intensity is also stochastic. We show numerically that the deterministic filtering met…
New method detects TC imagery patterns for rapid intensity change.
Boost-R uses gradient boosted trees for analyzing recurrence data.
This paper quantifies privacy-robustness and generalization-robustness trade-offs in adversarial training.
Modeling high-frequency order book data with Hawkes-Markovian process.
This paper extends the analysis of Muni Toke and Yoshida (2020) to the case of marked point processes. We consider multiple marked point processes with intensities defined by three multiplicative components, namely a common baseline intensity, a state-dependent component specific to each process, and a state-dependent …
This paper investigates a financial market where stock returns depend on a hidden Gaussian mean reverting drift process. Information on the drift is obtained from returns and expert opinions in the form of noisy signals about the current state of the drift arriving at the jump times of a homogeneous Poisson process. Dr…
Paper introduces statistical learning for point processes.
Despite the fundamental nature of the inhomogeneous Poisson process in the theory and application of stochastic processes, and its attractive generalizations (e.g. Cox process), few tractable nonparametric modeling approaches of intensity functions exist, especially when observed points lie in a high-dimensional space.…
Asymptotic factorizations for the small-ball probability (SmBP) of a Hilbert valued random element are rigorously established and discussed. In particular, given the first principal components (PCs) and as the radius of the ball tends to zero, the SmBP is asymptotically proportional to (a) the joi…
We consider the problem of identifying current coupons for Agency backed To-be-Announced (TBA) Mortgage Backed Securities. In a doubly stochastic factor based model which allows for prepayment intensities to depend upon current and origination mortgage rates, as well as underlying investment factors, we identify the cu…
We develop a model in which interactions between nodes of a dynamic network are counted by non homogeneous Poisson processes. In a block modelling perspective, nodes belong to hidden clusters (whose number is unknown) and the intensity functions of the counting processes only depend on the clusters of nodes. In order t…
In this paper, we present a new location fingerprinting database comprised of Wi-Fi received signal strength (RSS) and geomagnetic field intensity measured with multiple devices at a multi-floor building in Xi'an Jiatong-Liverpool University, Suzhou, China. We also provide preliminary results of localization and trajec…
Model detects market anomalies using a Hawkes process with hidden Markov chain.
Fragility curves which express the failure probability of a structure, or critical components, as function of a loading intensity measure are nowadays widely used (i) in Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment studies, (ii) to evaluate impact of construction details on the structural performance of installations under se…