Paper introduces new actuarial-consistent valuations for insurance liabilities.
problem Valuation of insurance liabilities considering both financial and actuarial risks.
method Proposes two-step actuarial valuations and actuarial-consistent procedures.
result Actuarial-consistent valuations are equivalent to two-step actuarial valuations under coherence.
This paper develops a valuation model for private companies.
problem Lack of pricing and hedging models for private companies.
method Dynamic Gordon growth model, Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimators, Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm.
result Closed-form pricing and hedging formulas for private companies.
The paper models and prices cyber insurance risks, distinguishing idiosyncratic, systematic, and systemic risks.
problem Modeling and pricing cyber insurance policies, especially for systemic risks.
method Distinguishes three types of cyber risks and proposes methods for their valuation.
result Complex methods are needed for systemic cyber risks, including risk-neutral valuation and monetary risk measures.
Framework for realistic insurance liability valuation.
problem Economic realism in insurance liability valuation.
method Replication approach of no-arbitrage theory, considering capital and fulfillment conditions.
result Identifies conditions for market price recovery and extends production for insolvency.
This study examines how risky investments affect insurance capital valuation.
problem Standard cost-of-capital assumptions do not account for risky investments.
method Analyzed effects of allowing buffer capital investments in risky assets.
result Decomposition of buffer capital contributions varies with riskiness.
This note fills the gap in market-consistent valuation of lifelong health insurance products.
problem Market-consistent valuation of lifelong health insurance products is not well-addressed.
method Constructs a valuation portfolio to separate Best Estimate into policy data and financial instrument prices.
result The Best Estimate valuation is not uniquely determined by prevailing term structures and requires a stochastic model.
Study optimizes insurance liability cash flows with regulatory capital requirements.
problem Valuation of insurance liabilities under regulatory capital constraints.
method Multiple-prior optimal stopping theory applied to insurance liabilities, considering hypothetical transfer and repeated capital requirements.
result Proposes a valuation functional for non-replicable cash flows, incorporating a margin for regulatory capital considerations.
New method for insurance valuation combining hedging and risk minimization.
problem Current insurance valuation methods do not reflect regulatory risk measures.
method Two-step hedging procedure using generalised regression.
result The method produces portfolios neutral to risk measures like VaR or expectiles.
Quantum computing promises faster insurance contract valuation.
problem Computational intensity of insurance contract valuation.
method Investigation of quantum computing's applicability for insurance contracts using Amplitude Estimation.
result Quantum computing can significantly speed up insurance contract valuation.
Insurance companies often include very long-term guarantees in participating life insurance products, which can turn out to be very valuable. Under a guaranteed annuity options (G.A.O), the insurer guarantees to convert a policyholder's accumulated funds to a life annuity at a fixed rated when the policy matures. Both …
The abstract reviews Markov models in life insurance surplus.
problem Analyzing Markov models in life insurance surplus.
method Systematic organization of models based on technical bases, including non-contractual cashflows.
result Expansion of 'technical basis' and addition of new terms to the surplus.
This paper studies the stochastic modeling of market drawdown events and the fair valuation of insurance contracts based on drawdowns. We model the asset drawdown process as the current relative distance from the historical maximum of the asset value. We first consider a vanilla insurance contract whereby the protectio…
Paper introduces a new principle for fair redistribution of insurance surplus.
problem Fair redistribution of surplus in life insurance policies.
method Introduces ISU decomposition principle based on infinitesimal sequential updates.
result Existing heuristic formulas can be replicated as ISU decompositions.
Compact formulas for evaluating insurance policies' risks.
problem Quantifying demographic risk in insurance portfolios.
method Cohort-based approach with market-consistent valuation.
result Formal closed formula for idiosyncratic risk (accidental mortality).
This paper explores how insurance contracts can be traded in financial markets.
problem The exclusion of arbitrage in insurance contracts due to their non-tradability.
method Defining strategies on insurance portfolios and combining them with financial trading strategies.
result The existence of an insurance-finance-consistent probability, leading to the expected discounted cash-flows.
Neural networks assess asset-liability risk over time.
problem Challenging valuation of portfolios with complex products.
method Neural network approach for conditional portfolio valuation.
result Effective risk assessment for banking and insurance portfolios.
We present an approach to market-consistent multi-period valuation of insurance liability cash flows based on a two-stage valuation procedure. First, a portfolio of traded financial instrument aimed at replicating the liability cash flow is fixed. Then the residual cash flow is managed by repeated one-period replicatio…
The paper prices a new life insurance policy for couples, considering various contingent benefits.
problem Valuation of life insurance policies for dependent coupled lives.
method Employed the QP-rule combining real-world and risk-neutral measures for pricing. result Explicit pricing expressions for the new insurance policy were derived and analyzed.
The paper revisits and applies FTAP to life insurance and annuities pricing.
problem Non-arbitrage pricing of life contingent assets in dynamic markets.
method Revisit FTAP, use martingale theory, apply FTAP to life insurance and annuities, clarify assumptions.
result Valuation formula for life contingent assets including life insurance policies and annuities.
This paper investigates market-consistent valuation of insurance liabilities in the context of, for instance, Solvency II and to some extent IFRS 4. We propose an explicit and consistent framework for the valuation of insurance liabilities which incorporates the Solvency II approach as a special case. The proposed fram…
Meta-analysis finds people value insurance for low-probability risks more than expected.
problem Low-probability risks insurance demand is lower than expected.
method Conducted a meta-analysis of contingent valuation studies.
result Average stated willingness to pay (WTP) for insurance is 87% of expected losses.
Study finds farmers are willing to pay higher premiums for higher coverage in agricultural insurance.
problem Determining the demand factors and WTP for agricultural insurance.
method Conducted a survey of 200 farmers to analyze the impact of socio-demographic variables and premium on insurance purchase decisions.
result Farmers are willing to pay higher premiums for higher coverage in agricultural insurance.
Enhanced Gordon growth model for valuing financial products.
problem Valuation of financial products with time-varying interest rates and dividends.
method Dynamic Gordon growth model with time-varying spot interest rate and dividends, risk-neutral valuation, locally risk-minimizing strategy.
result Pricing and hedging formulas for dividend-paying European options and equity-linked life insurance products.
Recent theoretical results establish that time-consistent valuations (i.e. pricing operators) can be created by backward iteration of one-period valuations. In this paper we investigate the continuous-time limits of well-known actuarial premium principles when such backward iteration procedures are applied. We show tha…
Study validates Libor model for insurance benefits calculation.
problem Valuation of long-term insurance guarantees.
method Mean-field Libor market model, numerical ALM, aggregated life insurance data.
result Derives estimators for future discretionary benefits.
Managing and hedging the risks associated with Variable Annuity (VA) products require intraday valuation of key risk metrics for these products. The complex structure of VA products and computational complexity of their accurate evaluation have compelled insurance companies to adopt Monte Carlo (MC) simulations to valu…
Revisits life insurance surplus models with new technical bases.
problem Classifying and extending life insurance surplus models.
method Using Markov models and classifying technical bases in Thiele's equation.
result Introduces a `canonical' model with three technical bases.
Models to price long term loans in the securities lending business are developed. These longer horizon deals can be viewed as contracts with optionality embedded in them. This insight leads to the usage of established methods from derivatives theory to price such contracts. Numerical simulations are used to demonstrate…
The paper examines how insurers manage risks and liquidity in a dynamic market.
problem Model uncertainty in insurance pricing and competitive equilibrium.
method Analyzes insurers' robustness preferences and optimization strategies for underwriting and liquidity management.
result Robust insurance pricing leads to higher premiums and equity valuations compared to a benchmark.
Develops a unified framework for valuing insurance products with guarantees.
problem Valuing insurance products with guarantees in an affine setting.
method General affine approach to model financial markets, mortality, and policyholder behavior.
result Explicit valuation formulas for variable annuities and related contracts derived.
New model incorporates long-range dependence in mortality rates for better valuation and risk management.
problem Lack of appropriate models for valuing and managing mortality securities with long-range dependence.
method Proposes a novel class of Volterra mortality models that incorporate LRD, derived in closed-form solution.
result Models provide flexibility and tractability for valuing and hedging mortality-related products.
Variable Annuity (VA) products expose insurance companies to considerable risk because of the guarantees they provide to buyers of these products. Managing and hedging these risks requires insurers to find the value of key risk metrics for a large portfolio of VA products. In practice, many companies rely on nested Mon…
The aim of this contribution is to derive a general matrix formula for the net period premium paid in more than one state. For this purpose we propose to combine actuarial technics with the graph optimization methodology. The obtained result is useful for example to more advanced models of dread disease insurances allo…
Paper develops a model to assess capital requirement for demographic risk using stochastic methods.
problem Quantifying capital requirement for demographic risk in life insurance contracts.
method Stochastic model extending local GAAP to Solvency II framework, proving market consistency.
result Model highlights main drivers of capital requirement evaluation, comparing to GAAP.
We develop a pricing rule for life insurance under stochastic mortality in an incomplete market by assuming that the insurance company requires compensation for its risk in the form of a pre-specified instantaneous Sharpe ratio. Our valuation formula satisfies a number of desirable properties, many of which it shares w…
Paper proposes a natural hedging framework with graphical assessment for longevity risk management.
problem Lack of a unified framework for natural hedging and graphical risk assessment.
method Structured natural hedging framework integrated with a graphical risk metric.
result Demonstrates flexibility, interpretability, and practical value for longevity risk management.
This article presents a stochastic framework to quantify the biometric risk of an insurance portfolio in solvency regimes such as Solvency II or the Swiss Solvency Test (SST). The main difficulty in this context constitutes in the proper representation of long term risks in the profit-loss distribution over a one year …
Methodology to analyze traffic accidents using microscopic models.
problem Understanding and predicting traffic accidents and their impact.
method Developed a statistical approach using microscopic traffic models and SUMO.
result Approximate distribution of total losses as a mean-variance mixture.
As part of the new regulatory framework of Solvency II, introduced by the European Union, insurance companies are required to monitor their solvency by computing a key risk metric called the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR). The official description of the SCR is not rigorous and has lead researchers to develop their…
New approach models individual vitality for better mortality predictions.
problem Limited ability of existing mortality models to capture individual complexity.
method Developed a four-component framework for individual vitality dynamics.
result Demonstrates improved analytical and practical outcomes in life insurance and lifetime decision-making.
In this paper we propose a multi-state model for the evaluation of the conversion option contract. The multi-state model is based on age-indexed semi-Markov chains that are able to reproduce many important aspects that influence the valuation of the option such as the duration problem, the time non-homogeneity and the …
Catastrophe risk is a major threat faced by individuals, companies, and entire economies. Catastrophe (CAT) bonds have emerged as a method to offset this risk and a corresponding literature has developed that attempts to provide a market-consistent pricing methodology for these and other long-dated, insurance-type cont…
Enhances valuation of variable annuities with stochastic interest rate models.
problem Valuation and optimal surrender strategies for variable annuities in Lévy models.
method Hybrid numerical method combining tree methods for interest rate modeling and finite difference techniques for asset price.
result Influence of stochastic interest rates on surrender decisions and contract design.
Within the context of the banking-related literature on contingent convertible bonds, we comprehensively formalise the design and features of a relatively new type of insurance-linked security, called a contingent convertible catastrophe bond (CocoCat). We begin with a discussion of its design and compare its relative …
The paper examines the unexpected losses and risk ratios for co-monotonic alternatives in large portfolios.
problem Understanding the unexpected losses and risk ratios for large portfolios with co-monotonic alternatives.
method Analyzes the asymptotic behavior of unexpected losses and risk ratios for co-monotonic alternatives using monotone cash-additive risk measures and Choquet insurance premia.
result Unexpected losses of large weighted portfolios are of order o(nλn), where λn is the average weight. Refundable income annuities offer a money-back guarantee, now the majority of sales.
problem The complexity and market neglect of refundable income annuities.
method Explained the pricing, duration, and money's-worth-ratio of refundable IAs, proving a counterintuitive price behavior.
result The market price of cash-refund IAs is not a declining function of age, and older buyers might pay more than younger ones.
Reinforcement learning improves insurance claims reserving by learning from all claim trajectories.
problem Traditional reserving models learn only from settled claims, missing valuable data from ongoing claims.
method Formulated as a Markov decision process, uses reinforcement learning to update OCL estimates sequentially.
result Soft Actor-Critic implementation achieves competitive claim-level accuracy and strong aggregate performance.
We consider a market model where there are two levels of information. The public information generated by the financial assets, and a larger flow of information that contains additional knowledge about a random time. This random time can represent many economic and financial settings, such as the default time of a firm…