Despite the fundamental nature of the inhomogeneous Poisson process in the theory and application of stochastic processes, and its attractive generalizations (e.g. Cox process), few tractable nonparametric modeling approaches of intensity functions exist, especially when observed points lie in a high-dimensional space.…
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48 results for “inhomogeneous Poisson process”
Proposes a model for predicting events from event streams.
problem Predicting events like part replacement and failure in manufacturing and teleservice systems.
method Non-parametric prognostic framework using MGCP modulated Poisson processes.
result MGCP prior facilitates sharing of information and analysis of flexible event patterns.
We present a machine learning model for the analysis of randomly generated discrete signals, modeled as the points of an inhomogeneous, compound Poisson point process. Like the wavelet scattering transform introduced by Mallat, our construction is naturally invariant to translations and reflections, but it decouples th…
Paper proposes a new method for estimating conditional densities using logistic regressions.
problem Estimating conditional densities for complex distributions.
method Parametric conditional density estimation via weighted logistic regressions.
result Maximum likelihood estimates can be obtained efficiently via a block-wise alternating maximization scheme and local case-control sampling.
A new kernel method improves Poisson process intensity estimation.
problem Estimating intensity functions of inhomogeneous Poisson processes.
method Kernel method-based intensity estimator using least squares loss.
result KIE achieves comparable predictive performance with improved efficiency.
New PDMP samplers improve BNN inference with accelerated computation.
problem Inference on Bayesian Neural Networks violates independence and posterior assumptions.
method Piecewise Deterministic Markov Process (PDMP) with adaptive thinning for inhomogenous Poisson Process (IPPs) sampling.
result PDMP samplers accelerate inference in BNNs, improving accuracy and mixing performance.
We show how the relation between Poisson brackets and symplectic forms can be extended to the case of inhomogeneous multivector fields and inhomogeneous differential forms (or pseudodifferential forms). In particular we arrive at a notion which is a generalization of a symplectic structure and gives rise to higher Pois…
Bayesian approach for inhomogeneous Poisson process intensity estimation.
problem Intractable integral in likelihood of Gaussian Cox process.
method Joint modeling of intensity and cumulative intensity as transformed Gaussian process; exact MCMC sampler.
result Exact posterior inference without approximations.
In this paper we provide theoretical support for the so-called "Sigmoidal Gaussian Cox Process" approach to learning the intensity of an inhomogeneous Poisson process on a -dimensional domain. This method was proposed by Adams, Murray and MacKay (ICML, 2009), who developed a tractable computational approach and show…
Modeling trading volume curves using hierarchical Poisson processes.
problem Predicting trading volume curves for financial instruments.
method Hierarchical Poisson process model based on hierarchical Dirichlet process with MCMC algorithm.
result Demonstrated scalability on NASDAQ stocks, including Apple.
We present an approximate Bayesian inference approach for estimating the intensity of an inhomogeneous Poisson process, where the intensity function is modelled using a Gaussian process (GP) prior via a sigmoid link function. Augmenting the model using a latent marked Poisson process and Pólya--Gamma random variables w…
We propose a scalable framework for inference in an inhomogeneous Poisson process modeled by a continuous sigmoidal Cox process that assumes the corresponding intensity function is given by a Gaussian process (GP) prior transformed with a scaled logistic sigmoid function. We present a tractable representation of the li…
Simulating and analyzing a sparse order book: an application to intraday electricity marketsq-fin.TR
Model simulates sparse order books in illiquid markets.
problem Inaccurate LOB models in illiquid markets.
method Inhomogeneous Poisson process for order arrivals and cancellations.
result Enhanced understanding of LOB dynamics in illiquid markets.
We introduce a new parameter to measure the inhomogeneity of training datasets.
problem The need for non-stationary models in supervised learning.
method We introduce a new parameter, the inhomogeneity parameter, to measure the inhomogeneity of training datasets.
result A training set with a non-zero inhomogeneity parameter requires a non-stationary model for accurate predictions.
Time homogeneous polynomial processes are Markov processes whose moments can be calculated easily through matrix exponentials. In this work, we develop a notion of time inhomogeneous polynomial processes where the coeffiecients of the process may depend on time. A full characterization of this model class is given by m…
New hierarchies and equations derived from Poisson structures.
problem Development of new hierarchies and equations from Poisson structures.
method Introduction and classification of multicomponent Poisson structures, derivation of hierarchies and equations.
result New Harry Dym and Hunter-Saxton equations derived for arbitrary number of components.
We propose an efficient method for estimating covariate effects in doubly-stochastic spatial models.
problem Computational demands and restrictive assumptions in existing doubly-stochastic spatial models.
method Penalized regression method for estimating covariate effects in doubly-stochastic point processes.
result Consistency and asymptotic normality of the covariate effect estimates achieved despite model misspecification.
We consider the problem of adaptively placing sensors along an interval to detect stochastically-generated events. We present a new formulation of the problem as a continuum-armed bandit problem with feedback in the form of partial observations of realisations of an inhomogeneous Poisson process. We design a solution m…
We consider a heat kernel approach for the development of stochastic pricing kernels. The kernels are constructed by positive propagators, which are driven by time-inhomogeneous Markov processes. We multiply such a propagator with a positive, time-dependent and decreasing weight function, and integrate the product over…
This thesis is devoted to the study of affine processes and their applications in financial mathematics. In the first part we consider the theory of time-inhomogeneous affine processes on general state spaces. We present a concise setup for time-inhomogeneous Markov processes. For stochastically continuous affine proce…
Time-inhomogeneous Gaussian stochastic volatility models: Large deviations and super roughnessmath.PR
We introduce time-inhomogeneous stochastic volatility models, in which the volatility is described by a nonnegative function of a Volterra type continuous Gaussian process that may have very rough sample paths. The main results obtained in the paper are sample path and small-noise large deviation principles for the log…
Extends diffusion models to handle exponential family distributions for inverse problems.
problem Intractability of likelihood score for non-Gaussian observations.
method Evidence trick to approximate likelihood score for exponential family distributions.
result Effective Bayesian inference on complex Poisson processes and malaria prevalence prediction.
Within the context of the banking-related literature on contingent convertible bonds, we comprehensively formalise the design and features of a relatively new type of insurance-linked security, called a contingent convertible catastrophe bond (CocoCat). We begin with a discussion of its design and compare its relative …
This chapter is an attempt to present a mathematical theory of compound fractional Poisson processes. The chapter begins with the characterization of a well-known Lévy process: The compound Poisson process. The semi-Markov extension of the compound Poisson process naturally leads to the compound fractional Poisson proc…
Poisson CNN: Convolutional neural networks for the solution of the Poisson equation on a Cartesian meshphysics.comp-ph
The Poisson equation is commonly encountered in engineering, for instance in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) where it is needed to compute corrections to the pressure field to ensure the incompressibility of the velocity field. In the present work, we propose a novel fully convolutional neural network (CNN) architec…
We study the problem of optimal portfolio selection in an illiquid market with discrete order flow. In this market, bids and offers are not available at any time but trading occurs more frequently near a terminal horizon. The investor can observe and trade the risky asset only at exogenous random times corresponding to…
In this article, we study the problem of pricing defaultable bond with discrete default intensity and barrier under constant risk free short rate using higher order binary options and their integrals. In our credit risk model, the risk free short rate is a constant and the default event occurs in an expected manner whe…
New financial models use tempered stable subordination for better correlation dynamics.
problem Building financial models with better correlation dynamics.
method Introducing tempered stable Sato subordinators and additive inhomogeneous processes.
result The new process has time-dependent correlation, improving fit for financial data.
Coupling by reflection of diffusion processes via discrete approximation under a backward Ricci flowmath.PR
A coupling by reflection of a time-inhomogeneous diffusion process on a manifold are studied. The condition we assume is a natural time-inhomogeneous extension of lower Ricci curvature bounds. In particular, it includes the case of backward Ricci flow. As in time-homogeneous cases, our coupling provides a gradient esti…
A new learning strategy using two GP layers for inhomogeneous data.
problem Addressing inhomogeneous empirical correlation structures in data.
method Modeling the function as a sample function of a non-stationary Gaussian Process (GP) nested within multiple stationary GPs, with hyperparameters dependent on the outer GP.
result The approach is sufficient with two GP layers, and the model can be implemented using MCMC.
The paper constructs a Saito basis for a specific class of divisors and applies it to logarithmic Poisson geometry.
problem Investigating a class of non-quasi-homogeneous free divisors and their logarithmic vector fields.
method Explicitly constructing a Saito basis for the module of logarithmic vector fields and applying it to logarithmic Poisson geometry.
result The construction of the Saito basis and the Lie-Rinehart algebra structure on the sheaf of logarithmic 1-forms.
Discrete tenor models for credit risky portfolios driven by time-inhomogeneous Lévy processesq-fin.PR
The goal of this paper is to specify dynamic term structure models with discrete tenor structure for credit portfolios in a top-down setting driven by time-inhomogeneous Lévy processes. We provide a new framework, conditions for absence of arbitrage, explicit examples, an affine setup which includes contagion and prici…
The stochastic block model is a powerful tool for inferring community structure from network topology. However, it predicts a Poisson degree distribution within each community, while most real-world networks have a heavy-tailed degree distribution. The degree-corrected block model can accommodate arbitrary degree distr…
The statistical physics of discovering exogenous and endogenous factors in a chain of eventsphysics.data-an
Event occurrence is not only subject to the environmental changes, but is also facilitated by the events that have occurred in a system. Here, we develop a method for estimating such extrinsic and intrinsic factors from a single series of event-occurrence times. The analysis is performed using a model that combines the…
Under the Basel II standards, the Operational Risk (OpRisk) advanced measurement approach is not prescriptive regarding the class of statistical model utilised to undertake capital estimation. It has however become well accepted to utlise a Loss Distributional Approach (LDA) paradigm to model the individual OpRisk loss…
We show that the stick-breaking construction of the beta process due to Paisley, et al. (2010) can be obtained from the characterization of the beta process as a Poisson process. Specifically, we show that the mean measure of the underlying Poisson process is equal to that of the beta process. We use this underlying re…
The fractional Poisson process (FPP) is a counting process with independent and identically distributed inter-event times following the Mittag-Leffler distribution. This process is very useful in several fields of applied and theoretical physics including models for anomalous diffusion. Contrary to the well-known Poiss…
Kernel for Lévy rough paths derived from PDE system.
problem Computing similarity measures for Lévy rough paths.
method Developed a PDE system for the expected signature of inhomogeneous Lévy processes.
result Gaussian martingales' expected signature kernel satisfies a Goursat PDE.
Deep Neyman-Scott Processesstat.ML
A deep Neyman-Scott process uses Poisson processes for efficient inference in complex point processes.
problem Efficient inference in complex hierarchical point processes.
method Developed an efficient posterior sampling via Markov chain Monte Carlo for likelihood-based inference.
result More hidden Poisson processes improve likelihood fitting and event prediction.
Autonomous Materials Discovery Driven by Gaussian Process Regression with Inhomogeneous Measurement Noise and Anisotropic Kernelsphysics.comp-ph
GPR enhances materials discovery by automating parameter space exploration.
problem Automating exploration of large, high-dimensional parameter spaces in materials science.
method Gaussian process regression with inhomogeneous measurement noise and anisotropic kernels.
result Importance and benefits of tuning GPR for materials science experiments.
A beta-negative binomial (BNB) process is proposed, leading to a beta-gamma-Poisson process, which may be viewed as a "multi-scoop" generalization of the beta-Bernoulli process. The BNB process is augmented into a beta-gamma-gamma-Poisson hierarchical structure, and applied as a nonparametric Bayesian prior for an infi…
Study magnetic field evolution in inhomogeneous axion stars.
problem Magnetic field evolution in axion stars with spatial inhomogeneity.
method Derived new induction equation for magnetic field, analyzed CS waves interactions, and considered compact domain effects.
result Spatial inhomogeneity of pseudoscalar field significantly affects magnetic field evolution.
Study shows deformations of quaternionic Kähler manifolds are locally inhomogeneous.
problem Understanding deformations of quaternionic Kähler manifolds.
method Proved one-loop deformation of quaternionic Kähler manifolds are locally inhomogeneous.
result Full isometry group of one-loop deformations has cohomogeneity one.
Researchers describe a specific type of submanifolds in Euclidean space.
problem Understanding inhomogeneous almost symmetric submanifolds.
method Completely describing submanifolds as unions of parallel symmetric submanifolds.
result Described inhomogeneous properly embedded almost symmetric submanifolds as unions of symmetric submanifolds.
Minimal assumptions analysis of Q-learning with time-varying policies.
problem Finite-time analysis of Q-learning with time-varying policies for discounted MDPs.
method Minimal assumptions, Poisson equation decomposition, sensitivity analysis.
result Established convergence rate and sample complexity for Q-learning.
Study shows convergence rates for BSDEs approximated by compound Poisson processes.
problem Analyzing convergence rates of BSDEs driven by Lévy processes.
method Approximating Lévy processes by compound Poisson processes and studying BSDEs.
result Optimal convergence rates derived for BSDEs in -norm and Wasserstein distance.
Sharp threshold found for Frechet mean of inhomogeneous graphs.
problem Finding the Frechet mean of inhomogeneous Erdos-Renyi random graphs.
method Thresholding the expected adjacency matrix of the ensemble.
result The Frechet mean graph of inhomogeneous Erdos-Renyi random graphs exhibits a sharp threshold.
The existence of complete Radner equilibria is established in an economy which parameters are driven by a diffusion process. Our results complement those in the literature. In particular, we work under essentially minimal regularity conditions and treat time-inhomogeneous case.