Paper tackles inherent risk scoring with choice-based data labeling and synthetic data collection.
problem Inconsistent expert judgments and lack of labeled data in inherent risk scoring.
method Choice-based data labeling and synthetic data collection.
result System achieves 89% accuracy on a test set of 52 examples.
Optimal cutoff interval for risk scores improves binary classification accuracy.
problem Improving binary classification accuracy with abstention.
method Determines optimal cutoff interval for risk scores, refraining from decisions outside this interval.
result Minimizes classification margin and maximizes accuracy within the interval.
Paper uses BERT to assess P2P borrowers' credit risk from loan descriptions.
problem Information asymmetry in P2P lending due to lack of borrower data.
method Fine-tunes BERT on Lending Club dataset to generate risk scores from loan descriptions.
result BERT-generated risk scores improve XGBoost classifier's performance in loan granting.
Paper breaks down risk contribution into inherent and correlation risk components.
problem Understanding the sources of risk in portfolio contributions.
method Leave-one-out decomposition approach to separate inherent and correlation risk contributions.
result The decomposition reveals distinct contributions of position volatility and correlation to portfolio risk.
Paper introduces OCRR Score for quantifying DeFi wallet credit risk.
problem Inability to assess credit risk in decentralized finance.
method Probabilistic measure based on historical and predictive on-chain activity.
result Dynamic adjustment of LTV and LT based on wallet risk profile.
Paper develops fine-grain spatiotemporal risk scores using high-resolution mobility data.
problem Developing reliable spatiotemporal risk scores for safe economic reopening.
method Hawkes process-based technique leveraging high-resolution cell-phone location signals.
result Fine-grain spatiotemporal risk scores based on high-resolution mobility data provide useful insights for safe re-opening.
New methods identify and score systemic risk measures accurately.
problem Identifying and scoring systemic risk measures accurately.
method Constructing oriented selective identification functions to induce a mixture representation of strictly consistent scoring functions.
result Demonstrated the applicability of the constructed functions through a comprehensive simulation study.
The paper assesses fairness in risk score models, focusing on epistemic value.
problem Fairness of risk score models in communicating uncertainty.
method Identified key fairness desiderata, developed metrics for quantitative assessment, and applied methodology in two case studies.
result Introduced a novel calibration error metric for meaningful comparisons between groups of different sizes.
Paper introduces xAUC metric to assess fairness of risk scores in bipartite ranking tasks.
problem Disparate impact of risk scores in non-binary, downstream uses.
method Investigates fairness in bipartite ranking tasks, introduces xAUC metric.
result xAUC metric reveals disparities not seen in binary classification performance.
Holdout set improves risk score accuracy without biasing predictions.
problem Updating risk scores can lead to biased estimates when directly applied.
method Use a holdout set of non-intervention population to update risk scores.
result Optimal holdout size reduces adverse outcomes to optimal level.
Risk scores are simple classification models that let users make quick risk predictions by adding and subtracting a few small numbers. These models are widely used in medicine and criminal justice, but are difficult to learn from data because they need to be calibrated, sparse, use small integer coefficients, and obey …
Study finds stocks with higher cyber risk scores outperform others, indicating a market-wide cyber risk premium.
problem Identifying and quantifying firms' cyber risks and their impact on stock performance.
method Machine learning algorithm to analyze disclosures and a dedicated cyber corpus.
result High cyber risk stocks significantly outperform others, indicating a market-wide cyber risk premium.
Constructs new elicitable risk measures with multiplicative scoring functions.
problem Defining new elicitable risk measures with specific properties.
method Constructs new elicitable risk measures using a multiplicative scoring function.
result Encompasses and allows construction of novel elicitable risk measures.
Paper develops machine learning algorithms to learn optimal integer weights for clinical risk scores.
problem Deriving optimal integer weights for clinical risk scores without computational burden.
method Flexible greedy optimization strategy to directly optimize a value function.
result Constructed an integer-weighted comorbidity score for measuring post-discharge mortality risk.
The paper analyzes elicitability of return risk measures and their scoring functions.
problem Elicitability of return risk measures and their scoring functions.
method Dual representation results for convex and geometrically convex return risk measures, axiomatic characterizations of Orlicz premia, and construction of strictly consistent scoring functions.
result Orlicz premia are the only elicitable return risk measures under different sets of conditions.
Research tackles investor confusion in ESG rankings, offering tailored strategies.
problem Widespread confusion among investors regarding ESG rankings.
method Developed ESG ensemble strategies, integrated ESG scores into RL model, proposed Double-Mean-Variance model, introduced ESG-adjusted CAPMs.
result Optimized portfolios that balance financial returns and ESG-focused outcomes.
TDA improves FX clustering quality over traditional methods.
problem Capturing complex currency co-movements in FX markets.
method Topological Data Analysis (TDA) compared to traditional statistical methods on monthly FX returns.
result TDA-based clustering yields more compact and well-separated clusters.
The study designs inherently interpretable machine learning models for high-risk sectors.
problem The need for transparent and explainable machine learning models in regulated industries.
method Qualitative template based on feature effects and model architecture constraints for assessing inherent interpretability.
result Demonstrates the design and evaluation of an interpretable ReLU DNN model for predicting credit default.
Recent discussion in the public sphere about algorithmic classification has involved tension between competing notions of what it means for a probabilistic classification to be fair to different groups. We formalize three fairness conditions that lie at the heart of these debates, and we prove that except in highly con…
Copula-based fusion improves breast cancer risk stratification.
problem Combining clinical and genomic risk scores using simple rules fails to capture their joint relationship.
method Used copulas to model the joint relationship between clinical and genomic risk scores.
result Copula-based fusion improves risk stratification, identifying subgroups with the worst prognosis.
Develops a risk score to assist ECMO planning for critically ill patients with viral or unspecified pneumonia.
problem Lack of a risk score to guide ECMO planning for critically ill patients.
method Leverages machine learning to develop the PEER score.
result PEER score predicts mortality and decompensation in patients eligible for ECMO.
Paper discusses extending Gini score for tied rankings and case weights.
problem Extending Gini score for tied rankings and case weights.
method Discuss and adapt Gini score for ties and case weights.
result Gini score can be used for tied rankings and case weights.
Optimal score function estimation via empirical risk minimization
problem Estimating the score function of a probability measure on the flat torus from a sample
method Constraining the hypothesis space to a Sobolev ball
result Minimax estimation rates are achieved
A framework for sensitivity measures using scoring functions.
problem Constructing sensitivity measures for any elicitable functional.
method Score-based sensitivities constructed via consistent scoring functions.
result Demonstrated intuitive and desirable properties of score-based sensitivities.
This paper examines how ESG scores can indicate riskiness.
problem Determining if ESG scores can convey information on a company's riskiness.
method High-dimensional vine copula modeling to analyze (tail) dependence structure of companies with various ESG scores.
result ESG scores can be associated with (tail) riskiness, especially during crises.
This paper identifies and analyzes biases in risk-adjusted index weighting methods, affecting social welfare and market fairness.
problem Biases in risk-adjusted index weighting methods lead to tracking errors and fraud in indices and ETFs.
method Characterizes and analyzes the biases and adverse effects of risk-adjusted index weighting methods.
result These biases reduce social welfare and can enable harmful arbitrage activities.
Paper develops a risk scoring framework for tokenized RWA markets.
problem Tokenized assets may not reflect true risk due to illiquidity and concentration.
method Develops a risk scoring framework based on observable indicators.
result Assets with limited transfer activity and concentrated ownership have high empirical risk.
Standardized fairness measures for continuous risk scores using Wasserstein distance.
problem Quantifying and interpreting group disparities in continuous risk scores.
method Proposes standardized fairness measures based on Wasserstein distance for continuous scores.
result Proposed measures outperform ROC-based fairness measures by being more explicit and quantifying significant biases.
Two new methods score stress test scenarios for risk managers.
problem Comparing and evaluating stress test scenarios for risk managers.
method Inspired by Archer-Mouy-Selmi, two methodologies for scoring stress test scenarios.
result New methods can compare and evaluate stress test scenarios.
A new RL framework for risk-sensitive decision-making using convex scoring functions.
problem Time-inconsistent risk measures in reinforcement learning.
method Convex scoring functions, augmented state space, auxiliary variable, customized Actor-Critic algorithm.
result Theoretical guarantees for approximation and convergence under certain conditions.
New ESGM scores include a 'Missing' pillar to account for unpublished ESG data.
problem Unpublished ESG data affects the reliability of ESG scores.
method Formulated a new 'Missing' pillar and introduced ESGM scores.
result ESGM scores improve risk assessment and avoid exclusion of assets.
This paper evaluates Range Value at Risk forecasts using consistent scoring functions.
problem Evaluating and comparing the performance of Range Value at Risk (RVaR) forecasts.
method Using strictly consistent loss or scoring functions, the paper characterizes the class of scoring functions for a triplet of RVaR with two VaR components.
result A triplet of RVaR with two VaR components at different levels is elicitable, and the class of strictly consistent scoring functions is characterized.
We develop a personalized real time risk scoring algorithm that provides timely and granular assessments for the clinical acuity of ward patients based on their (temporal) lab tests and vital signs. Heterogeneity of the patients population is captured via a hierarchical latent class model. The proposed algorithm aims t…
Optimizes risk assessment tools using mixed-integer programming.
problem Challenges in healthcare risk assessment due to label scarcity and asymmetric misclassification costs.
method Jointly optimizes scoring weights and category thresholds via mixed-integer programming (MIP).
result Prevents label-scarce category collapse and achieves more accurate risk categorization.
SCoRE provides risk control for selective prediction models.
problem Enforcing strict error control in selective prediction models.
method SCoRE framework based on conformal inference and hypothesis testing.
result SCoRE offers binary trust decisions with finite-sample error control.
Two-stage model improves credit scoring predictions.
problem Distribution shift in finance datasets.
method Two-stage model with out-of-distribution detection and domain knowledge.
result Highly reliable predictions for most datasets.
The NL score optimizes speaker recognition tasks.
problem Improving speaker recognition accuracy.
method Established the theory of optimal scores based on normalized likelihood.
result NL score is equivalent to PLDA likelihood ratio under certain conditions.
Improved sample complexity for diffusion models without needing empirical risk minimizers.
problem Theoretical limitations in sample complexity for diffusion models.
method Structured decomposition of score estimation error, eliminating dependence on neural network parameters.
result Achieved sample complexity bound of O(ε^(-4)) without empirical risk minimizer access.
Enhances learning of structured distributions using nonlinear denoising score matching.
problem Learning structured distributions from noisy data.
method Latent Nonlinear Denoising Score Matching (LNDSM) integrating nonlinear dynamics with VAE-based latent score matching.
result LNDSM achieves superior sample quality and variability compared to structure-agnostic methods.
New method improves privacy risk evaluation of machine learning models.
problem Machine learning models can be vulnerable to membership inference attacks.
method Proposed new inference attack method based on prediction entropy, and introduced privacy risk score metric.
result Existing defense approaches are not as effective as previously reported.
Score attack method provides a lower bound on privacy-constrained minimax risk.
problem Characterizing the optimality of privacy-constrained statistical models.
method Score attack based on tracing attack concept.
result Optimally lower bounds the minimax risk of estimating unknown model parameters.
Locus scores predictions for risk, reducing large-loss events.
problem Deployment cost from inaccurate predictions, especially large losses.
method Distribution-free loss-scale reliability score using any predictive distribution.
result Reduces large-loss frequency compared to standard heuristics.
Predictions are issued on the basis of certain information. If the forecasting mechanisms are correctly specified, a larger amount of available information should lead to better forecasts. For point forecasts, we show how the effect of increasing the information set can be quantified by using strictly consistent scorin…
Paper establishes identifiability and elicitability of tail risk measures.
problem Identifying and measuring tail risk measures accurately.
method Establishes identifiability and elicitability of tail risk measures using generators and quantiles.
result Joint identifiability and elicitability of tail risk measures and quantiles.
Establishes a link between risk measures and uniform integrability in finance.
problem Understanding uniform integrability in the context of financial risk measures.
method Introduces the folding score of distortion risk measures to study uniform integrability directly with gains and losses.
result Obtains three sets of equivalent conditions for uniform integrability involving coherent risk measures.
Study minimax risk of score estimation for log-concave distributions.
problem Minimizing risk in score estimation for log-concave distributions.
method Developed subclasses of log-concave densities and constructed a locally adaptive, multiscale estimator.
result Established minimax rates for score estimation over specific subclasses of log-concave densities.
Study evaluates risk in options using volatility surface projections.
problem Risk assessment of options due to their non-linear price behavior and volatility fluctuations.
method Parametric surface projection method for implied volatility.
result Enhanced risk evaluation through dynamic volatility surface analysis.
New optimal transport divergences derived from scoring functions.
problem Developing new divergences for optimal transport.
method Using scoring functions as cost functions in optimal transport.
result Comonotonic coupling is optimal for many new divergences.