A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
BED-LLM uses Bayesian experimental design to improve LLMs' information gathering.
FairBED: A Bayesian Experimental Design Approach to Gathering Fairer Data
New meta-RL method avoids exploration-exploitation trade-off.
Paper simplifies complex AI exploration by predicting future rewards.
Study benchmarks label noise detection methods, identifying best practices.
Foundation models struggle with multi-turn exploration but can learn through regular summaries.
Study optimizes scoring rules for incentivizing agent's information gathering in online settings.
Gathering the most information by picking the least amount of data is a common task in experimental design or when exploring an unknown environment in reinforcement learning and robotics. A widely used measure for quantifying the information contained in some distribution of interest is its entropy. Greedily minimizing…
Proposes a max-utility arm selection strategy for reducing cumulative regret in sequential query recommendations.
Aims to improve personalized treatment decisions through Bayesian experimental design.
Data that is gathered adaptively --- via bandit algorithms, for example --- exhibits bias. This is true both when gathering simple numeric valued data --- the empirical means kept track of by stochastic bandit algorithms are biased downwards --- and when gathering more complicated data --- running hypothesis tests on c…
Bayesian BIC for multi-trial data improves VAR model order selection.
Study predicts Bitcoin volatility using Twitter data.
Preventing organizations from Cyber exploits needs timely intelligence about Cyber vulnerabilities and attacks, referred as threats. Cyber threat intelligence can be extracted from various sources including social media platforms where users publish the threat information in real time. Gathering Cyber threat intelligen…
Proposes EPIG for active learning to improve predictive performance.
Applications of safety, security, and rescue in robotics, such as multi-robot target tracking, involve the execution of information acquisition tasks by teams of mobile robots. However, in failure-prone or adversarial environments, robots get attacked, their communication channels get jammed, and their sensors may fail…
A standard belief on emerging collective behavior is that it emerges from simple individual rules. Most of the mathematical research on such collective behavior starts from imperative individual rules, like always go to the center. But how could an (optimal) individual rule emerge during a short period within the group…
Part-of-speech (POS) tagging is a fundamental component for performing natural language tasks such as parsing, information extraction, and question answering. When POS taggers are trained in one domain and applied in significantly different domains, their performance can degrade dramatically. We present a methodology f…
In this paper we seek methods to effectively detect urban micro-events. Urban micro-events are events which occur in cities, have limited geographical coverage and typically affect only a small group of citizens. Because of their scale these are difficult to identify in most data sources. However, by using citizen sens…
Optimization of very expensive black-box functions requires utilization of maximum information gathered by the process of optimization. Model Guided Sampling Optimization (MGSO) forms a more robust alternative to Jones' Gaussian-process-based EGO algorithm. Instead of EGO's maximizing expected improvement, the MGSO use…
This work tackles online memory selection in continual learning using information theory.
We give a new proof of the representation of implied volatility as a time-average of weighted expectations of local or stochastic volatility. With this proof we clarify the question of existence of 'forward implied variance' in the original derivation of Gatheral, who introduced this representation in his book 'The Vol…
In this article we propose a generalisation of the recent work of Gatheral and Jacquier on explicit arbitrage-free parameterisations of implied volatility surfaces. We also discuss extensively the notion of arbitrage freeness and Roger Lee's moment formula using the recent analysis by Roper. We further exhibit an arbit…
In practical Bayesian optimization, we must often search over structures with differing numbers of parameters. For instance, we may wish to search over neural network architectures with an unknown number of layers. To relate performance data gathered for different architectures, we define a new kernel for conditional p…
We introduce a probabilistic model of labor markets for university graduates, in particular, in Japan. To make a model of the market efficiently, we take into account several hypotheses. Namely, each company fixes the (business year independent) number of opening positions for newcomers. The ability of gathering newcom…
Privacy preserving networks can be modelled as decentralized networks (e.g., sensors, connected objects, smartphones), where communication between nodes of the network is not controlled by an all-knowing, central node. For this type of networks, the main issue is to gather/learn global information on the network (e.g.,…
Online knowledge repositories typically rely on their users or dedicated editors to evaluate the reliability of their content. These evaluations can be viewed as noisy measurements of both information reliability and information source trustworthiness. Can we leverage these noisy evaluations, often biased, to distill a…
As financial instruments grow in complexity more and more information is neglected by risk optimization practices. This brings down a curtain of opacity on the origination of risk, that has been one of the main culprits in the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. We discuss how the loss of transparency may be quantified …
In this short note, we prove by an appropriate change of variables that the SVI implied volatility parameterization presented in Gatheral's book and the large-time asymptotic of the Heston implied volatility agree algebraically, thus confirming a conjecture from Gatheral as well as providing a simpler expression for th…
We analyze and quantify, in a financial market with parameter uncertainty and for a Constant Relative Risk Aversion investor, the utility effects of two different boundedly rational (i.e., sub-optimal) investment strategies (namely, myopic and unconditional strategies) and compare them between each other and with the u…
Investment tool predicts higher returns for Madrid real estate units.
Semantic segmentation is an established while rapidly evolving field in medical imaging. In this paper we focus on the segmentation of brain Magnetic Resonance Images (MRI) into cerebral structures using convolutional neural networks (CNN). CNNs achieve good performance by finding effective high dimensional image featu…
Enhanced reinforcement learning using ensemble methods.
To alleviate the burden of gathering detailed expert annotations when training deep neural networks, we propose a weakly supervised learning approach to recognize metastases in microscopic images of breast lymph nodes. We describe an alternative training loss which clusters weakly labeled bags in latent space to inform…
Distributed, online data mining systems have emerged as a result of applications requiring analysis of large amounts of correlated and high-dimensional data produced by multiple distributed data sources. We propose a distributed online data classification framework where data is gathered by distributed data sources and…
We propose a new framework for deriving screening rules for convex optimization problems. Our approach covers a large class of constrained and penalized optimization formulations, and works in two steps. First, given any approximate point, the structure of the objective function and the duality gap is used to gather in…
In an attempt to gather a deeper understanding of how convolutional neural networks (CNNs) reason about human-understandable concepts, we present a method to infer labeled concept data from hidden layer activations and interpret the concepts through a shallow decision tree. The decision tree can provide information abo…
Item cold-start is a classical issue in recommender systems that affects anime and manga recommendations as well. This problem can be framed as follows: how to predict whether a user will like a manga that received few ratings from the community? Content-based techniques can alleviate this issue but require extra infor…
Information diffusion in online social networks is affected by the underlying network topology, but it also has the power to change it. Online users are constantly creating new links when exposed to new information sources, and in turn these links are alternating the way information spreads. However, these two highly i…
To investigate objects without a describable notion of distance, one can gather ordinal information by asking triplet comparisons of the form "Is object closer to or is closer to ?" In order to learn from such data, the objects are typically embedded in a Euclidean space while satisfying as many triplet …
Proper balance between exploitation and exploration is what makes good decisions, which achieve high rewards like payoff or evolutionary fitness. The Infomax principle postulates that maximization of information directs the function of diverse systems, from living systems to artificial neural networks. While specific a…
This paper studies graphical model selection, i.e., the problem of estimating a graph of statistical relationships among a collection of random variables. Conventional graphical model selection algorithms are passive, i.e., they require all the measurements to have been collected before processing begins. We propose an…
This work defines a complexity measure for BAMDP planning and introduces state abstraction for more efficient approximate planning.
Designers of AI agents often iterate on the reward function in a trial-and-error process until they get the desired behavior, but this only guarantees good behavior in the training environment. We propose structuring this process as a series of queries asking the user to compare between different reward functions. Thus…
Modified model prevents volatility from approaching zero.
Informal settlements are home to the most socially and economically vulnerable people on the planet. In order to deliver effective economic and social aid, non-government organizations (NGOs), such as the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), require detailed maps of the locations of informal settlements. However, d…
New method estimates robust multi-period portfolios using entropy.
Increased data gathering capacity, together with the spread of data analytics techniques, has prompted an unprecedented concentration of information related to the individuals' preferences in the hands of a few gatekeepers. In the present paper, we show how platforms' performances still appear astonishing in relation t…