Paper models demand and solvency for index insurance, combining traditional and measurable index-based coverage.
problem Reducing protection gaps for emerging risks.
method Develops a model for demand and solvency conditions, combining traditional and index-based insurance.
result Deduces a product that benefits from both traditional and index-based insurance approaches.
The study examines how formal index insurance compares to informal risk sharing in managing natural disasters.
problem The challenges of natural disasters and the effectiveness of index insurance in risk management.
method A three-strategy evolutionary game model to analyze the competitive relationship between formal index insurance, informal risk sharing, and non-insurance.
result Basis risk and loss ratio significantly impact the adoption rate of index insurance, with different strategies preferred under varying conditions.
Study models weather index insurance pricing by insurers and farmers, finding flexible pricing kernels boost profits.
problem Monopoly pricing of weather index insurance with risk and flexibility considerations.
method Bowley-type sequential game with insurer and farmer, using neural networks for farmer's payoff.
result Flexible pricing kernels increase insurer profits closer to indemnity insurance levels.
NDI aims to forecast future natural disasters risk for insurers.
problem Increasing intensity and frequency of natural disasters.
method Develops a Natural Disasters Index (NDI) based on NOAA data.
result NDI forecasts future natural disasters risk for insurers.
Federated learning calibrates insurance indices from renewable energy producers' data.
problem Calibrating parametric insurance indices under heterogeneous renewable energy production losses.
method Federated learning framework using Tweedie GLMs and distributed optimization.
result Federated learning recovers comparable index coefficients under moderate heterogeneity.
Recently it's been shown that neural networks can use images of human faces to accurately predict Body Mass Index (BMI), a widely used health indicator. In this paper we demonstrate that a neural network performing BMI inference is indeed vulnerable to test-time adversarial attacks. This extends test-time adversarial a…
We propose a model for an insurance loss index and the claims process of a single insurance company holding a fraction of the total number of contracts that captures both ordinary losses and losses due to catastrophes. In this model we price a catastrophe derivative by the method of utility indifference pricing. The as…
The paper introduces a US crime index to assess financial losses from property and cyber crimes.
problem Lack of indices evaluating crime's financial impact on investments.
method Developed an index-based insurance portfolio using FBI financial losses data.
result Real estate, ransomware, and government impersonation are major risk contributors.
We consider the problem of pricing derivatives written on some industrial loss index via utility indifference pricing. The industrial loss index is modelled by a compound Poisson process and the insurer can adjust her portfolio by choosing the risk loading, which in turn determines the demand. We compute the price of a…
New CDC scheme avoids intergenerational subsidies, offering better outcomes.
problem Intergenerational cross-subsidies in UK CDC schemes.
method Collective-Drawdown CDC approach using explicit insurance contracts.
result Better pension outcomes with no intergenerational cross-subsidies.
SwiGAN generates drought scenarios for climate risk management.
problem Natural catastrophes and droughts increase insurance costs.
method Conditional GANs for generating spatio-temporal SWI maps.
result Simulates drought patterns up to 2050 for French regions.
Investigates optimal life insurance and annuity decisions in inflationary economies.
problem Optimal consumption and investment decisions in an inflationary economy with money illusion.
method Formulated as a random horizon utility maximization problem, derived optimal strategy.
result Money illusion increases life insurance demand for young adults and reduces annuity demand for retirees.
p-index approach shows efficient-contrarian strategy outperforms others in low-sentiment periods
problem Evaluating investment strategies in stock markets
method Using p-index risk measure with European put option
result Efficient-contrarian strategy outperforms others in low-sentiment periods
The subject of the present article is the study of correlations between large insurance companies and their contribution to systemic risk in the insurance sector. Our main goal is to analyze the conditional structure of the correlation on the European insurance market and to compare systemic risk in different regimes o…
New EPS insurance offers partial protection against superannuation losses.
problem Lack of efficient investment insurance for superannuation holders.
method Developed a new financial derivative, equity protection swap (EPS), and derived a fair pricing formula.
result EPS can be an efficient investment insurance tool for superannuation accounts.
The concordance probability or C-index is a popular measure to capture the discriminatory ability of a regression model. In this article, the definition of this measure is adapted to the specific needs of the frequency and severity model, typically used during the technical pricing of a non-life insurance product. Due …
Optimizes hybrid insurance contracts for heavy-tailed losses.
problem Providing insurance against heavy-tailed losses with finite expected loss.
method Combines traditional and parametric insurance, using a Pareto-type criterion for optimization.
result The hybrid contract outperforms traditional contracts in simulations and real data.
In this paper we investigate the pricing problem of a pure endowment contract when the insurer has a limited information on the mortality intensity of the policyholder. The payoff of this kind of policies depends on the residual life time of the insured as well as the trend of a portfolio traded in the financial market…
Paper proposes a natural hedging framework with graphical assessment for longevity risk management.
problem Lack of a unified framework for natural hedging and graphical risk assessment.
method Structured natural hedging framework integrated with a graphical risk metric.
result Demonstrates flexibility, interpretability, and practical value for longevity risk management.
In this paper we consider the pricing of variable annuities (VAs) with guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefits. We consider two pricing approaches, the classical risk-neutral approach and the benchmark approach, and we examine the associated static and optimal behaviors of both the investor and insurer. The first model …
Study quantifies model risk in cyber insurance, affecting premium pricing.
problem Model risk and risk sensitivity in cyber insurance pricing.
method Robust estimators for model parameters and dependence analysis.
result Robust estimation improves tail index and joint loss model accuracy.
Novel pricing method for equity-indexed annuities under uncertain volatility and stochastic interest rate.
problem Pricing equity-indexed annuities with early surrender risk under uncertain market conditions.
method Advanced financial modeling techniques, including uncertain volatility framework and Hull-White model for interest rate dynamics. Numerical algorithm using tree-based framework with local volatility optimization.
result High effectiveness of the proposed numerical algorithm compared to machine learning-based methods.
A new tail-shape index based on Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall.
problem Measuring and comparing tail behavior of loss distributions.
method Introducing a new θ-index based on equal level relationships between Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall. result The θ-index provides a level-dependent, scale-free measure of upper tail behavior. We find the wealth distribution for an economic agent in the financial market, in analogy with standard derivation of generaliz Boltzman (Tsallis) factor in statistical mechanics. In this respect, Tsallis entropic index separates two different regimes, the large and small size market. The Pareto like wealth distributio…
In this paper, we assume an insure is allowed to purchase proportional reinsurance and can invest his or her wealth into the financial market where a savings account, stocks and bonds are available. Different from classical optimal investment and reinsurance problem, this paper studies the insurer's long-term investmen…
Study optimal risk sharing in decentralized peer-to-peer markets with robust risk measures.
problem Optimizing risk sharing in decentralized markets with non-convex risk measures.
method Characterization of Pareto-optimal allocations using robust distortion risk measures and probabilistic risk aversion.
result Shape of allocations depends on agents' tail risk assessments.
Paper extends ranking metrics theory for financial positions.
problem Developing a new class of functionals for evaluating financial positions.
method Axiomatic framework based on monotonicity and cash-quasiconcavity.
result Linking ranking metrics to families of acceptance sets and risk measures.
Paper extends ranking metrics theory for financial positions.
problem Developing a new class of performance evaluation methods.
method Axiomatic framework based on monotonicity and cash-quasiconcavity.
result Linking ranking metrics to families of acceptance sets and risk measures.
In this paper we propose a multi-state model for the evaluation of the conversion option contract. The multi-state model is based on age-indexed semi-Markov chains that are able to reproduce many important aspects that influence the valuation of the option such as the duration problem, the time non-homogeneity and the …
Mack's estimator improves chain ladder prediction for large exposure insurance models.
problem Uncertainty quantification in compound Poisson loss models.
method Large exposure asymptotics applied to Mack's estimator.
result Chain ladder prediction uncertainty can be quantified without model assumptions.
Study insurance pricing under correlation ambiguity without increasing prices or reducing utility.
problem Understanding the dependence structure between insurance and financial risks.
method Dynamic equilibrium analysis of insurance pricing with worst-case beliefs.
result Correlation ambiguity does not necessarily increase insurance prices or reduce insurers' utility.
Paper proves Pareto efficient insurance for multiple entities.
problem Optimizing insurance for multiple policyholders and insurers.
method Sum-minimization characterization and pairwise implementability analysis.
result Characterization of Pareto efficient insurance arrangements.
Study on systemic risk in European insurance sector, showing insurer connections during stress.
problem Understanding systemic risk connectedness in European insurance sector.
method Common connectedness framework applied to returns, volatility, value-at-risk, and expected shortfall.
result Insurers are a significant component of systemic risk connectedness, especially during stress episodes.
The paper examines how risk reduction and insurance choices interact under convex premium principles.
problem Interaction between self-protection and insurance demand under convex premium principles.
method Investigates optimal prevention efforts and insurance shares using distortion risk measures.
result Self-protection and insurance are complementary, but ex ante moral hazard can turn this into a substitution effect.
Parametric insurance offers better risk-sharing in high-risk settings than traditional indemnity insurance.
problem High-risk environments where traditional indemnity insurance is unaffordable or ineffective.
method Comparison of excess-of-loss indemnity insurance and parametric insurance within a mean-variance framework, considering fixed costs and binding budget constraints.
result Parametric insurance yields higher welfare for risk-averse individuals, especially when indemnity insurance is impractical.
The paper examines insurance market dynamics and optimal regulation.
problem Equilibrium outcomes in dynamic insurance markets.
method Analyzes three equilibrium outcomes: positive, zero, and market failure.
result Insurers may accept underwriting losses by investing profits, especially with negative correlations.
We consider an investor who wants to select her/his optimal consumption, investment and insurance policies. Motivated by new insurance products, we allow not only the financial marke but also the insurable loss to depend on the regime of the economy. The objective of the investor is to maximize her/his expected total d…
Optimal insurance contract limits insurer's risk exposure variance.
problem Designing an optimal insurance contract limiting insurer's risk exposure variance.
method Derive optimal policy semi-analytically, focusing on actuarially fair case.
result Expected coverage is larger for wealthier insured, indicating normal good.
Two pension funds mutually insure against longevity risk.
problem Mutual insurance against systematic longevity risk for pension funds.
method Mathematical demonstration and market clearing condition.
result Insurance provides little benefit when fund preferences are similar, but can be beneficial when preferences vary significantly.
Reinsurance can help life insurers maintain higher capital guarantees without losing utility.
problem Decreasing capital guarantees in life insurance products.
method Dynamic investment-reinsurance optimization problem with simultaneous Value-at-Risk and no-short-selling constraints. Introduced guarantee-equivalent utility gain for comparison.
result Optimally managed reinsurance allows insurers to offer higher capital guarantees without reducing expected utility.
This paper explores how insurance contracts can be traded in financial markets.
problem The exclusion of arbitrage in insurance contracts due to their non-tradability.
method Defining strategies on insurance portfolios and combining them with financial trading strategies.
result The existence of an insurance-finance-consistent probability, leading to the expected discounted cash-flows.
Paper analyzes strategic underreporting in competitive insurance markets.
problem Strategic underreporting by insureds in competitive insurance markets.
method Develops a dynamic insurance market model with two competing companies and a continuum of insureds, examines the interaction between strategic underreporting and competitive pricing under a Bonus-Malus System framework.
result Establishes the existence and uniqueness of the insureds' optimal reporting barrier and its dependence on BMS premiums; proves the existence of Nash equilibrium premium strategies.
Study of insurer games with model uncertainty in reinsurance and investment strategies.
problem Model uncertainty and competitive insurers' performance under worst-case scenarios.
method Formulated robust mean-field game for non-linear system, derived closed-form solutions.
result Relative concerns lead to new hedging terms in investment and reinsurance strategies.
New model for insurance states using Markov jump processes with non-countable state space.
problem Modeling insurance states with non-countable state spaces.
method Developed a new Thiele's differential equation for continuous time rehabilitation rates.
result Allows for consistent calculation of reserves in disability insurance.
The paper models insurance market dynamics under uncertainty and financial frictions.
problem Modeling insurer behavior under uncertainty and financial frictions.
method Dynamic equilibrium model of insurance market with competitive insurers maximizing shareholder value.
result Investment can lead to lower insurance prices and negative loadings under certain conditions.
Study of insurance market equilibria with risk-averse policyholders.
problem Analyzing optimal insurance contracts in a monopoly market with risk-averse policyholders.
method Modeling Stackelberg equilibria with a profit-maximizing insurer and a risk-averse policyholder.
result Equilibrium contracts exhibit a layer-type structure, providing full insurance over pessimistic loss layers and no coverage over optimistic ones.
Develops a Bonus-Malus model for cyber risk insurance to incentivize cybersecurity.
problem Lack of effective insurance strategies to incentivize cybersecurity.
method Proposes a Bonus-Malus model and a mathematical model with a numerical algorithm.
result Demonstrates how a Bonus-Malus system resolves moral hazard and benefits the insurer.
Study compares ruin probabilities under independence vs. dependence assumptions.
problem Underestimation of ruin probability when claims are dependent.
method Copulas for claim dependence analysis, sensitivity analysis.
result Dependent claims lead to underestimation of ruin probability.