In an independence model, the triplets that represent conditional independences between singletons are called elementary. It is known that the elementary triplets represent the independence model unambiguously under some conditions. In this paper, we show how this representation helps performing some operations with in…
New framework extends ICA for non-independent variables, identifying pairwise mean independence.
problem Non-independent variables complicating ICA recovery.
method Algebraic recovery algorithm based on least-squares optimization over the orthogonal group.
result Pairwise mean independence is identifiable, robust to independence constraints.
Neurosymbolic predictors fail to model uncertainty under independence assumption.
problem Neurosymbolic predictors' reliance on independence assumption limits their ability to model uncertainty.
method Formal analysis of NeSy predictors under independence assumption.
result Assuming independence among symbolic concepts prevents NeSy predictors from representing uncertainty.
A new graphical model for discrete data without parametric restrictions.
problem Discrete data modeling with restrictions.
method Additive conditional independence and penalized estimation of precision operator.
result Consistency of the estimator in ultrahigh-dimensional settings.
Path-independent equilibrium models improve network performance on harder problems.
problem Improving network performance on harder problem instances.
method Investigated path-independent equilibrium models and their impact on network performance.
result Path independence correlates with better performance on harder problem instances.
Representing distributions over permutations can be a daunting task due to the fact that the number of permutations of n objects scales factorially in n. One recent way that has been used to reduce storage complexity has been to exploit probabilistic independence, but as we argue, full independence assumptions impo…
Testing (conditional) independence of multivariate random variables is a task central to statistical inference and modelling in general - though unfortunately one for which to date there does not exist a practicable workflow. State-of-art workflows suffer from the need for heuristic or subjective manual choices, high c…
Derives derivatives and geometric framework for functions with non-independent variables.
problem Characterizing functions with non-independent variables in probabilistic models.
method Derives actual and dependent partial derivatives, dependent Jacobian matrix, and tensor metric.
result Derives gradient, Hessian, and Taylor expansion for functions with non-independent variables.
Greedy selection works well in a toy model of independent increments.
problem Iterative selection of maximum-value processes from i.i.d. stochastic processes.
method Fixed greedy selection at each stage.
result Optimal strategy is greedy selection under independent increments.
The paper analyzes counterfactual invariance and its relation to conditional independence.
problem Understanding the relationship between counterfactual invariance and conditional independence.
method Theoretical analysis of existing definitions, graphical implications, and mathematical proofs.
result Counterfactual invariance implies conditional independence, but not the other way around.
The paper tackles extrapolation in generative models by enforcing independence of mechanisms.
problem How to make generative models extrapolate to new, unseen environments?
method Developed a theoretical framework for independence of mechanisms, demonstrated on toy examples and real-world data.
result Extrapolation capabilities of generative models can be improved by enforcing independence of mechanisms explicitly during training.
A variable screening procedure via correlation learning was proposed Fan and Lv (2008) to reduce dimensionality in sparse ultra-high dimensional models. Even when the true model is linear, the marginal regression can be highly nonlinear. To address this issue, we further extend the correlation learning to marginal nonp…
Algorithm learns causal structures from low-order conditional independencies.
problem Estimating high-order conditional independencies from data is challenging.
method Proposes an algorithm to compute a faithful graphical representation from low-order conditional independencies.
result Algorithm successfully learns causal structures from zero- and first-order conditional independencies.
Overlay framework simplifies exotic derivative pricing.
problem Inconsistent pricing models for exotics.
method Combines path reweighting and conic optimisation.
result Practically model-independent price bands for exotics.
GTMs model complex multivariate data with varying conditional independencies.
problem Modeling multivariate data with intricate marginals and complex dependency structures.
method Semiparametric approach using penalized splines and lasso regularization.
result GTMs accurately learn complex dependencies and identify conditional independencies.
New method recovers causal order from dependent data.
problem Causal discovery methods fail with shared volatility or common scale effects.
method Linear Mean-Independent Acyclic Model (LiMIAM) with mean-independence restrictions.
result Compatible causal order can be recovered from dependent disturbances.
Constraint-based structure learning algorithms infer the causal structure of multivariate systems from observational data by determining an equivalent class of causal structures compatible with the conditional independencies in the data. Methods based on additive-noise (AN) models have been proposed to further discrimi…
Bayesian method finds patterns of mutual independence in data.
problem Investigating mutual independence in statistics.
method Bayesian model comparison using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).
result Automated search for patterns of mutual independence.
A new method tests conditional independence by transforming it into an unconditional problem using transport maps.
problem Testing conditional independence between two random vectors given a third.
method Constructing transport maps to transform conditional independence into unconditional independence, estimating these maps from data using conditional continuous normalizing flow models.
result The proposed method is validated through simulations and real-data analysis, demonstrating practical effectiveness.
Develops a new framework for conditional independence.
problem Generalizing previous notions of conditional independence.
method Introduces transition probability spaces and transitional random variables.
result Satisfies all desired relevance relations except symmetry.
Can we use deep learning to predict when deep learning works? Our results suggest the affirmative. We created a dataset by training 13,500 neural networks with different architectures, on different variations of spiral datasets, and using different optimization parameters. We used this dataset to train task-independent…
Learning the Markov network structure from data is a problem that has received considerable attention in machine learning, and in many other application fields. This work focuses on a particular approach for this purpose called independence-based learning. Such approach guarantees the learning of the correct structure …
We consider the problem of finding model-independent bounds on the price of an Asian option, when the call prices at the maturity date of the option are known. Our methods differ from most approaches to model-independent pricing in that we consider the problem as a dynamic programming problem, where the controlled proc…
Bayesian networks are simplified for categorical variables using staged trees and asymmetry-labeled DAGs.
problem Representing non-symmetric conditional independences in Bayesian networks.
method Formalized relationship between Bayesian networks and staged trees, introduced asymmetry-labeled DAGs, and developed an algorithm to learn staged trees.
result A novel algorithm for learning staged trees that captures non-symmetric independences.
Determinantal point process have recently been used as models in machine learning and this has raised questions regarding the characterizations of conditional independence. In this paper we investigate characterizations of conditional independence. We describe some conditional independencies through the conditions on t…
Paper finds Dutch Draw optimal baseline for binary classification.
problem Need a proper baseline for binary classification validation.
method Examined all input-independent baseline methods.
result Dutch Draw is optimal baseline under given conditions.
Sequential Kernel-based Conditional Independence Testing via Adaptive Betting
problem Testing conditional independence
method Testing-by-betting on an adaptively optimized Kernel Conditional Independence statistic
result Significantly reduces Type I error inflation while preserving high power
We propose a new approach, called cooperative neural networks (CoNN), which uses a set of cooperatively trained neural networks to capture latent representations that exploit prior given independence structure. The model is more flexible than traditional graphical models based on exponential family distributions, but i…
The multiresolution Gaussian process (GP) has gained increasing attention as a viable approach towards improving the quality of approximations in GPs that scale well to large-scale data. Most of the current constructions assume full independence across resolutions. This assumption simplifies the inference, but it under…
Develops a nonparametric graphical model for conditional independence.
problem Evaluation of conditional independence without distributional assumptions.
method Nonlinear sufficient dimension reduction techniques applied to a nonparametric graphical model.
result Method outperforms existing methods in non-Gaussian settings and high-dimensional data.
This work identifies redundant tests in conditional-independence-based discovery that can improve graphical model accuracy.
problem Reliability and sensitivity of conditional-independence-based discovery algorithms.
method Analysis of redundant tests and their impact on error detection and correction.
result Redundant tests can improve graphical model accuracy but not all are beneficial.
Efficiently fine-tunes patient-independent seizure detection models with tensor kernel machine.
problem Improving seizure detection accuracy for wearable devices.
method Transfer learning with tensor kernel machine using canonical polyadic decomposition.
result Patient fine-tuned model achieves high performance with smaller model size.
New algorithms learn simple staged trees from data, improving model fit.
problem Complex conditional independences in categorical data vectors.
method Structural learning algorithms for simple staged trees, coalescing the underlying tree.
result Data-learned simple staged trees often outperform Bayesian networks in model fit.
InClass nets use neural networks to estimate CIMMs without assuming fixed parameters.
problem Nonparametric estimation of conditional independence mixture models.
method Independent classifier neural networks (NNs) for multi-class classification.
result Nonparametric identifiability conditions for bivariate CIMMs.
The new notion of maturity-independent risk measures is introduced and contrasted with the existing risk measurement concepts. It is shown, by means of two examples, one set on a finite probability space and the other in a diffusion framework, that, surprisingly, some of the widely utilized risk measures cannot be used…
Unified framework for structure learning via conditional independence testing.
problem Optimal structure learning and conditional independence testing.
method Established a fundamental connection and reduction between structure learning and conditional independence testing.
result Optimal rates for structure learning are determined by conditional independence testing rates.
This work investigates the intersection property of conditional independence. It states that for random variables A,B,C and X we have that X independent of A given B,C and X independent of B given A,C implies X independent of (A,B) given C. Under the assumption that the joint distribution has a co…
Graphical models with bi-directed edges (<->) represent marginal independence: the absence of an edge between two vertices indicates that the corresponding variables are marginally independent. In this paper, we consider maximum likelihood estimation in the case of continuous variables with a Gaussian joint distributio…
New method exploits independence in instrumental variable models for better causal inference.
problem Identify causal functions in the presence of unobserved confounders.
method HSIC-X method that exploits independence between response, hidden confounders, and instruments.
result The method provides better finite sample results and is invariant to distributional shifts.
New method uses MMD estimators to enforce model invariance with missing data.
problem Models trained on missing data can fail on related test distributions.
method Derives MMD estimators for enforcing model invariance under missing nuisances.
result Optimizing through MMD estimates achieves similar test performance to using full data.
This research tackles group fairness in predictive process monitoring by ensuring predictions are independent of sensitive group membership.
problem Predictive models using biased historical data can perpetuate unfair behavior in new cases.
method Investigates independence through metrics like ΔDP and a composite loss function balancing predictive performance and fairness.
result Proposes and validates a composite loss function for training models that balance fairness and performance.
New approach tackles nonidentifiability in nonlinear blind source separation.
problem Nonidentifiability in nonlinear blind source separation.
method Independent mechanism analysis, incorporating causal assumptions.
result Empirical and theoretical evidence shows improved identifiability.
This paper aims at justifying LWF and AMP chain graphs by showing that they do not represent arbitrary independence models. Specifically, we show that every chain graph is inclusion optimal wrt the intersection of the independence models represented by a set of directed and acyclic graphs under conditioning. This impli…
Simple method calculates WWR for regulatory and accounting purposes.
problem Estimating WWR for regulatory and accounting capital requirements.
method Model-independent approach using integral expressions and component calibration.
result WWR effects for FVA are significantly more material than for CVA.
We develop a new framework of uncertainty variables to model uncertainty. An uncertainty variable is characterized by an uncertainty set, in which its realization is bound to lie, while the conditional uncertainty is characterized by a set map, from a given realization of a variable to a set of possible realizations of…
New test for point processes without strong model assumptions.
problem Testing local independence in point processes without strong model assumptions.
method Expansion similar to Volterra expansions to represent marginalized intensities.
result Approximation of true marginalized intensity arbitrarily well.
Estimates marginal independence structure of Bayesian networks from data.
problem Learning the marginal independence structure of Bayesian networks from observational data.
method Using Gröbner basis and MCMC method (GrUES) to connect and recover the true structure.
result GrUES recovers the true marginal independence structure at a higher rate than simple independence tests.
Method discovers local independence in systems with continuous variables.
problem Applying Context-Specific Independence (CSI) to continuous variables is impractical.
method Neural contextual decomposition (NCD) learns partition of joint outcome space.
result NCD successfully discovers local independence in synthetic and real-world systems.