Large models collapse epistemic uncertainty, challenging traditional wisdom.
problem Epistemic uncertainty collapse in large models.
method Implicit ensembling and decomposition techniques.
result Larger models can collapse epistemic uncertainty, contrary to expectations.
Modern neural networks tend to be overconfident on unseen, noisy or incorrectly labelled data and do not produce meaningful uncertainty measures. Bayesian deep learning aims to address this shortcoming with variational approximations (such as Bayes by Backprop or Multiplicative Normalising Flows). However, current appr…
A new Gaussian process regression method infers implicit manifold structure from data.
problem Scaling Gaussian process regression to high-dimensional data.
method Proposes a fully differentiable Gaussian process regression technique that infers implicit manifold structure from data.
result Improves predictive performance and calibration of standard Gaussian process regression in high-dimensional settings.
We introduce the implicit processes (IPs), a stochastic process that places implicitly defined multivariate distributions over any finite collections of random variables. IPs are therefore highly flexible implicit priors over functions, with examples including data simulators, Bayesian neural networks and non-linear tr…
In this work, we propose learnable Bernoulli dropout (LBD), a new model-agnostic dropout scheme that considers the dropout rates as parameters jointly optimized with other model parameters. By probabilistic modeling of Bernoulli dropout, our method enables more robust prediction and uncertainty quantification in deep m…
New method improves BLL models for complex datasets.
problem Limited expressive capacity of Gaussian priors in BLL models.
method Combines diffusion techniques and implicit priors for variational learning.
result Enhanced predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
LLMs generate answers under incomplete context, and their uncertainty should scale with missing information.
problem Evaluating the quality of LLM answers under incomplete context.
method A controlled framework with varying context availability, and two uncertainty measures (sampling-based confidence and response entropy) evaluated on SQuAD.
result Response entropy increases with context removal and explains more variance in accuracy than confidence, suggesting it is a more responsive uncertainty measure.
Proposes an alternative method for quantifying uncertainty in complex models.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in complex models and evaluations.
method Infinitesimally regularizes the training loss to assess downstream uncertainty.
result Provides reliable quantification of uncertainty and calibrated confidence intervals.
Efficient exploration remains a challenging problem in reinforcement learning, especially for those tasks where rewards from environments are sparse. A commonly used approach for exploring such environments is to introduce some "intrinsic" reward. In this work, we focus on model uncertainty estimation as an intrinsic r…
Improved covariate shift handling with node-based Bayesian neural networks.
problem Improving generalization under covariate shift in neural networks.
method Introduced node-based Bayesian neural networks that learn latent noise variables to represent input corruptions.
result Node-based BNNs perform well under covariate shift due to input perturbations, improving uncertainty estimation and robustness.
Bayesian neural networks simplified with input augmentation.
problem Uncertainty in deep learning models.
method Layer-wise input augmentation to induce uncertainty distributions.
result State-of-the-art performance in uncertainty representation.
Paper proposes a new method for probabilistic electricity price forecasting.
problem Accurate estimation of forecast uncertainties for optimal decision making.
method Implicit generative ensemble post-processing using an ensemble of point forecasting models.
result Method outperforms well-established model combination benchmarks.
Thompson sampling is an efficient algorithm for sequential decision making, which exploits the posterior uncertainty to address the exploration-exploitation dilemma. There has been significant recent interest in integrating Bayesian neural networks into Thompson sampling. Most of these methods rely on global variable u…
Novel framework optimizes experiments for implicit models using mutual information.
problem Optimizing experiments for intractable implicit models.
method Sequential Bayesian Experimental Design using Mutual Information.
result Framework efficiently estimates parameters with few iterations.
Wasserstein Dropout improves uncertainty estimation in neural networks.
problem Estimating neural uncertainties for safe machine learning.
method A purely non-parametric approach using dropout-based sub-network distributions and Wasserstein distance.
result Wasserstein Dropout outperforms state-of-the-art methods in uncertainty estimation.
Softmax confidence misrepresents uncertainty in neural networks.
problem Neural networks fail to increase uncertainty on out-of-distribution data.
method Investigates two implicit biases in softmax confidence.
result Softmax confidence correlates with epistemic uncertainty due to decision boundary structure and deep network filtering.
Local convolutions bias neural networks towards high-frequency adversarial examples.
problem High-frequency adversarial examples in neural networks.
method Analysis of different linear and nonlinear architectures, focusing on the impact of local convolution operations.
result Local convolutions induce an implicit bias towards high frequency features, leading to high-frequency adversarial examples.
We propose a novel approach to approximate complex high-dimensional posteriors using neural samplers.
problem Accurately capturing complex, multimodal, and correlated posteriors in high-dimensional spaces.
method Implicit variational inference with neural samplers and local linearisation bounds.
result Our method enables implicit distributions over tens of millions of latent variables, recovering correlations across layers in large Bayesian neural networks.
MDNs offer a data-efficient alternative to diffusion and flow models for multimodal scientific learning.
problem Capturing multimodal conditional uncertainty in scientific inverse problems.
method Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) as explicit parametric density estimators.
result MDNs achieve superior generalization, interpretability, and sample efficiency in scientific tasks.
The paper evaluates and improves uncertainty estimates in neural networks for safety-critical applications.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in neural networks for safety-critical systems.
method Proposes a statistical test for evaluating uncertainty realism in neural networks and transfers a classification architecture to image-to-image tasks.
result The variational U-Net architecture significantly improves uncertainty realism in image-to-image tasks compared to a plain model.
Intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) imaging allows contrast-agent free in vivo perfusion quantification with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). However, its use is limited by typically low accuracy due to low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) at large gradient encoding magnitudes as well as dephasing artefacts caused by subje…
The paper proposes a framework for information-theoretic predictive uncertainty measures.
problem The need for reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty in machine learning.
method Revisiting core concepts, categorizing predictive uncertainty measures based on model and approximation of true distribution.
result Identification of conditions under which certain predictive uncertainty measures excel.
End-to-end autonomous driving models get better uncertainty estimates.
problem Uncertainty quantification for end-to-end autonomous driving models.
method Approximate inference for implicit copula neural linear model.
result Densities for steering angle are marginally calibrated.
This work improves neural network calibration using explicit regularization.
problem Improving predictive uncertainty in neural networks.
method Introducing a probabilistic calibration measure and exploring explicit regularization techniques.
result Explicit regularization improves log-likelihood and predictive uncertainty.
PANIS learns PDE surrogates for heterogeneous materials without solving the PDE.
problem Learning surrogates for parametrized PDEs in heterogeneous media.
method Physics-aware neural implicit solvers combining probabilistic learning and physics-informed discretization.
result Learned surrogates for effective solutions in heterogeneous materials without solving the reference problem.
TabMGP uses a martingale posterior with TabPFN to estimate uncertainty in tabular data.
problem Estimating uncertainty in models like TabPFN for scientific estimands θ. method TabMGP is an MGP built on TabPFN, focusing inference on loss function-defined parameters.
result TabMGP produces credible sets with near-nominal coverage and often outperforms baselines.
Spectrum sensing is of critical importance in any cognitive radio system. When the primary user's signal has uncertain parameters, the likelihood ratio test, which is the theoretically optimal detector, generally has no closed-form expression. As a result, spectrum sensing under parameter uncertainty remains an open qu…
New framework improves reliability of learned representations by modeling uncertainty and structural constraints.
problem Uncertainty in learned representations treated as deterministic, leading to unreliable models.
method Proposes a principled framework for reliable representation learning with uncertainty-aware regularization and structural constraints.
result Improves stability, calibration, and robustness of learned representations.
We consider the application of deep generative models in propagating uncertainty through complex physical systems. Specifically, we put forth an implicit variational inference formulation that constrains the generative model output to satisfy given physical laws expressed by partial differential equations. Such physics…
DVIP improves on IP-based methods by using IPs as priors over latent functions.
problem Limited expressiveness of IP-based models, especially in function space.
method Proposes DVIP, a multi-layer generalization of IPs, and scalable variational inference.
result DVIP outperforms previous IP-based methods and deep GPs in regression and classification tasks.
Better uncertainty estimates for neural networks using Gaussian process priors.
problem Poor uncertainty estimates in neural networks, especially on out-of-distribution data.
method Characterize the function-space prior of an ensemble of infinitely-wide neural networks as a Gaussian process and use it to build a probabilistic model.
result The approach improves calibration of neural networks, especially under distributional shift.
Bayesian principles improve neural additive models for better feature selection and uncertainty.
problem Lack of calibrated uncertainties and feature selection in neural additive models.
method Augmenting NAMs with Bayesian principles to provide credible intervals, feature selection, and interaction ranking.
result Improved performance on tabular datasets and real-world medical tasks.
We study time consistent dynamic pricing mechanisms of European contingent claims under uncertainty by using G framework introduced by Peng ([24]). We consider a financial market consisting of a riskless asset and a risky stock with price process modelled by a geometric generalized G-Brownian motion, which features the…
RL struggles with generalization due to implicit partial observability.
problem Generalization in RL is difficult due to implicit partial observability.
method Re-cast RL problem as solving epistemic POMDPs and propose ensemble-based techniques.
result Simple ensemble-based technique achieves significant generalization gains.
Bayesian deep learning uses function-space priors to improve model uncertainty and robustness.
problem Bayesian deep learning struggles with model-specific weight-space priors that are hard to interpret and specify.
method Apply a Dirichlet prior in predictive space and perform approximate function-space variational inference.
result The approach improves uncertainty quantification, scalability, and adversarial robustness in large-scale image classification.
We present a probabilistic deep learning methodology that enables the construction of predictive data-driven surrogates for stochastic systems. Leveraging recent advances in variational inference with implicit distributions, we put forth a statistical inference framework that enables the end-to-end training of surrogat…
Study values and optimizes forestry leases under risk and uncertainty.
problem Valuing and optimizing forestry leases in the presence of catastrophe risk and parameter uncertainty.
method Stochastic bio-economic models, Kalman filter, maximum likelihood estimation, RBSDEs, Monte Carlo simulations.
result Conservative strategy is recommended due to parameter uncertainty.
Deep neural network (DNN) regression models are widely used in applications requiring state-of-the-art predictive accuracy. However, until recently there has been little work on accurate uncertainty quantification for predictions from such models. We add to this literature by outlining an approach to constructing predi…
Adaptive learning method for stochastic programs with latent uncertainty.
problem Stochastic programming problems with implicitly decision-dependent uncertainty.
method Adaptive learning-based surrogate method integrating simulation and statistical estimates.
result Established non-asymptotic convergence rate analysis for enhanced stability and efficiency.
Uncertainty quantification is essential when dealing with ill-conditioned inverse problems due to the inherent nonuniqueness of the solution. Bayesian approaches allow us to determine how likely an estimation of the unknown parameters is via formulating the posterior distribution. Unfortunately, it is often not possibl…
We consider learning based methods for visual localization that do not require the construction of explicit maps in the form of point clouds or voxels. The goal is to learn an implicit representation of the environment at a higher, more abstract level. We propose to use a generative approach based on Generative Query N…
FTIP uses normalizing flows to improve posterior inference in function space.
problem Challenges in posterior inference with implicit-process priors.
method FTIP uses normalizing flows to define a richer variational distribution over combination weights.
result FTIP captures asymmetric and multimodal posterior structure better than Gaussian coefficient approximations.
This paper addresses the problem of rank aggregation, which aims to find a consensus ranking among multiple ranking inputs. Traditional rank aggregation methods are deterministic, and can be categorized into explicit and implicit methods depending on whether rank information is explicitly or implicitly utilized. Surpri…
A new model characterizes undocumented and asymptomatic infections to quantify COVID-19 uncertainties.
problem Quantifying uncertainties in COVID-19 infections and contagion.
method SUDR model: characterizes undocumented and documented infections, captures probabilistic density, and incorporates Bayesian inference.
result Demonstrates deeper understanding of COVID-19 uncertainties compared to classic models.
Unified approach for learning with weak labels across various tasks.
problem Learning with noisy or incomplete labels in diverse machine learning settings.
method Implicit posterior models for joint label inference.
result Unified training objective for various machine learning tasks.
Develops a new option pricing model under G-expectation framework.
problem Modeling uncertainty in financial markets and robust valuation under model uncertainty.
method G-expectation framework, logarithmic transformation, finite difference schemes.
result Unified risk-neutral valuation approach yielding G-Black-Scholes equation.
Bayesian interpretations of neural network have a long history, dating back to early work in the 1990's and have recently regained attention because of their desirable properties like uncertainty estimation, model robustness and regularisation. We want to discuss here the application of Bayesian models to knowledge sha…
Bayesian neural networks improved with scalable approximate inference.
problem Performing approximate Bayesian inference in complex models like neural networks.
method Two models: primary for prediction, secondary for posterior approximation; optimised via gradient descent on posterior predictive distribution.
result Approach scales better than MCMC and more expressive than VIs, without adversarial training.