A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The formation of price in a financial market is modelled as a chain of Ising spin with three fundamental figures of trading. We investigate the time behaviour of the model, and we compare the results with the real EURO/USD change rate. By using the test of local Poisson hypothesis, we show that this minimal model leads…
In this chapter we review some recent results on the dynamics of price formation in financial markets and its relations with the efficient market hypothesis. Specifically, we present the limit order book mechanism for markets and we introduce the concepts of market impact and order flow, presenting their recently disco…
I study the behavior and the performance of the long-term forecasts issued by financial analysts with respect to the Extrapolation Hypothesis. That hypothesis states that investors, extrapolating from the firms' recent performances, are too optimistic about growth and large firms and too pessimistic about value and sma…
We explore geometric aspects of bubble convergence for harmonic maps. More precisely, we show that the formation of bubbles is characterised by the local excess of curvature on the target manifold. We give a universal estimate for curvature concentration masses at each bubble point and show that there is no curvature l…
Study on stock price formation on trees with multi-population and non-rational agents.
problem Equilibrium price formation for risky stock with multi-population and non-rational agents.
method Combining mean-field game theory with binomial tree framework, proving existence of unique equilibrium, deriving explicit formula for transition probabilities.
result Existence of unique mean-field market-clearing equilibrium with explicit analytic formula for stock price transition probabilities.
The classical prime geodesic theorem (PGT) gives an asymptotic formula (as x tends to infinity) for the number of closed geodesics with length at most x on a hyperbolic manifold M. Closed geodesics correspond to conjugacy classes of π1(M)=Γ where Γ is a lattice in G=SO(n,1). The theorem can be rephrased in…
The paper proposes incentivizing human annotators with 'golden questions' to improve data quality.
problem Ensuring high-quality human annotations for training large language models.
method A principal-agent model is used to incentivize annotators with bonuses based on the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) of their annotations. Hypothesis testing is applied to monitor the annotators' performance.
result The hypothesis testing rate for the principal-agent model is of Θ(1/nlogn), highlighting the importance of 'golden questions' for monitoring annotators.
We discuss memory models which are based on tensor decompositions using latent representations of entities and events. We show how episodic memory and semantic memory can be realized and discuss how new memory traces can be generated from sensory input: Existing memories are the basis for perception and new memories ar…
Simulating fluid flow in geological formations requires mesh generation, lithology mapping to the cells, and computing geometric properties such as normal vectors and volume of cells. The purpose of this research work is to compute and process the geometrical information required for performing numerical simulations in…
Deep neural networks are commonly developed and trained in 32-bit floating point format. Significant gains in performance and energy efficiency could be realized by training and inference in numerical formats optimized for deep learning. Despite advances in limited precision inference in recent years, training of neura…
Paper proves trapped surface formation for EMCSF system without symmetry assumptions.
problem Formation of trapped surfaces for the Einstein--Maxwell--charged scalar field system.
method Scale-critical trapped surface formation result established from past null infinity.
result Focusing of gravitational waves, concentration of electromagnetic fields, or condensation of scalar fields can lead to trapped surface formation.
The main goal of this paper is to study the geometric structures associated with the representation of tensors in subspace based formats. To do this we use a property of the so-called minimal subspaces which allows us to describe the tensor representation by means of a rooted tree. By using the tree structure and the d…
Study equilibrium consumption habits in a large population using mean field games.
problem Equilibrium consumption under external habit formation in a large population.
method Formulated and solved mean field games for linear and multiplicative habit formation preferences, constructed approximate Nash equilibria for large n-player games.
result Characterized mean field equilibrium strategies and derived financial implications.
We seek to utilize the nonextensive statistics to the microscopic modeling of the interacting many-investor dynamics that drive the price changes in a market. The statistics of price changes are known to be fit well by the Students-T and power-law distributions of the nonextensive statistics. We therefore derive models…
The "standard" Merton formulation of optimal investment and consumption involves optimizing the integrated lifetime utility of consumption, suitably discounted, together with the discounted future bequest. In this formulation the utility of consumption at any given time depends only on the amount consumed at that time.…
Modeling price formation in intraday electricity markets with renewable generation.
problem Price formation and optimal trading strategies in intraday electricity markets with intermittent renewable generation.
method Developed a tractable equilibrium model using stochastic control theory to identify optimal strategies and exhibit Nash equilibrium.
result Identified optimal trading strategies and exhibited Nash equilibrium in closed form for a finite number of agents and in the asymptotic framework of mean field games.
We present the mathematical background of a software package that computes triangulations of mapping tori of surface homeomorphisms, suitable for Jeff Weeks's program SnapPea. It consists of two programs. jmt computes triangulations and prints them in a human-readable format. jsnap converts this format into SnapPea's t…
Graphs and networks are a key research tool for a variety of science fields, most notably chemistry, biology, engineering and social sciences. Modeling and generation of graphs with efficient sampling is a key challenge for graphs. In particular, the non-uniqueness, high dimensionality of the vertices and local depende…
Mathematical methods of population genetics and framework of exchangeability provide a Markov chain model for analysis and interpretation of stochastic behaviour of equity markets, explaining, in particular, market shape formation, statistical equilibrium and temporal stability of market weights.