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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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22446688 · Jun 201919922001200920172026
48 results for hierarchical state-space

The paper develops a state-space approach to deep Gaussian processes for efficient state estimation.

problem Efficient regression and state estimation for deep Gaussian processes.
method Hierarchical transformed Gaussian process priors, state-space representation, linear stochastic differential equations, sequential methods.
result The state-space approach enables efficient state estimation and regression for deep Gaussian processes.

We introduce a variational approach to learning and inference of temporally hierarchical structure and representation for sequential data. We propose the Variational Temporal Abstraction (VTA), a hierarchical recurrent state space model that can infer the latent temporal structure and thus perform the stochastic state …

2019-10-02abs ↗pdf ↗

One of the key challenges in applying reinforcement learning to real-life problems is that the amount of train-and-error required to learn a good policy increases drastically as the task becomes complex. One potential solution to this problem is to combine reinforcement learning with automated symbol planning and utili…

2018-06-28abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian approach for learning spatiotemporal systems from noisy data.

problem Efficiently modeling and learning from spatiotemporal dynamical systems with noisy data.
method Hierarchical state-space models with Gaussian process regression for efficient interpolation and training.
result Efficient modeling and learning of spatiotemporal dynamics using Bayesian methods.

Free Random Projection enhances reinforcement learning by naturally incorporating hierarchical structure.

problem Improving reinforcement learning algorithms for better generalization and adaptability.
method Introduces Free Random Projection, a method that uses free probability theory to create random orthogonal matrices encoding hierarchical structure.
result Empirically shows consistent improvement in generalization over standard methods on multi-environment benchmarks.

Generative Bayesian Filtering improves inference in complex models without explicit density evaluations.

problem Performing posterior inference in complex nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space models.
method Generative Bayesian Filtering (GBF) extends GBC to dynamic settings using deep neural networks for recursive posterior inference. Generative-Gibbs sampler bypasses density evaluations for parameter learning.
result GBF significantly outperforms likelihood-free approaches in accuracy and robustness for intractable state-space models.

Real-world dynamical systems often consist of multiple stochastic subsystems that interact with each other. Modeling and forecasting the behavior of such dynamics are generally not easy, due to the inherent hardness in understanding the complicated interactions and evolutions of their constituents. This paper introduce…

2020-01-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Framework models multiscale dynamics with Bayesian learning for regime changes.

problem Analyzing complex interactions between fast and slow processes.
method Hierarchical state-space modeling with Sequential Monte Carlo.
result Bayesian approach accurately tracks state transitions and identifies switching dynamics.

An agent that has well understood the environment should be able to apply its skills for any given goals, leading to the fundamental problem of learning the Universal Value Function Approximator (UVFA). A UVFA learns to predict the cumulative rewards between all state-goal pairs. However, empirically, the value functio…

2019-08-15abs ↗pdf ↗

We prove a lower bound for feature dimension in linear MDPs and propose a novel dynamics aggregation framework.

problem The limitation of feature dimension in linear MDPs and the need for efficient hierarchical reinforcement learning.
method We propose a novel dynamics aggregation framework based on structural dynamics and design a provably efficient hierarchical reinforcement learning algorithm.
result Our algorithm achieves a regret of ildeO(dψ3/2H3/2NT) ilde{O} ( d_ψ^{3/2} H^{3/2}\sqrt{ N T} ) and meets the condition dψ3Nd3d_ψ^3 N \ll d^{3} in most real-world environments.

Empirical mode modeling improves state-space analysis of noisy data.

problem Analyzing nonlinear systems with noisy data.
method Combining empirical mode decomposition with empirical dynamic modeling.
result Empirical mode modeling enhances state-space representations in noisy data.

Bayesian Context Trees model improves financial time series forecasting.

problem Modeling and forecasting financial time series with volatility asymmetries.
method Hierarchical Bayesian framework for tree-based mixture models with AR/ARCH base models.
result BCT-X framework outperforms state-of-the-art techniques in forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency.

We describe a generalization of the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) which is able to encode prior information that state transitions are more likely between "nearby" states. This is accomplished by defining a similarity function on the state space and scaling transition probabilities by pai…

2017-07-21abs ↗pdf ↗

State spaces of multifactor approximations of nonnegative Volterra processes are linear transformations of the nonnegative orthant.

problem Characterizing state spaces of multifactor approximations of nonnegative Volterra processes.
method Explicit linear transformation of the nonnegative orthant.
result State spaces of multifactor approximations of nonnegative Volterra processes are given by explicit linear transformation of the nonnegative orthant.

Divides state space into regions with identical term structure shapes.

problem Classifying term structure shapes in the two-factor Vasicek model.
method Using envelopes and winding numbers to divide and classify the state space.
result Nearly complete classification of parameter space regarding term structure shapes.

We provide a comprehensive overview and tooling for GP modeling with non-Gaussian likelihoods using state space methods. The state space formulation allows for solving one-dimensional GP models in O(n)\mathcal{O}(n) time and memory complexity. While existing literature has focused on the connection between GP regression …

2018-02-13abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper analyzes variational autoencoders for state space models with risk bounds.

problem Analyzing the risk associated with variational autoencoders for state space models.
method Backward factorization of variational distributions to analyze excess risk, providing oracle inequalities and upper bounds.
result Explicit upper bounds on variational estimation error for state space models under strong mixing assumptions.

A new method learns state and proposal dynamics in state-space models using neural networks.

problem Inference in non-linear state-space models.
method StateMixNN method using neural networks for proposal and transition distributions.
result Significantly improved recovery of hidden state, especially in highly non-linear scenarios.

Study evaluates initialization strategies for infinite hidden Markov models.

problem Limited attention to initialization in infinite hidden Markov models.
method Systematically evaluated distance-based clustering, model-based, and uniform initializations.
result Distance-based clustering initializations consistently outperform other methods.

Robust state-space radio interferometric imaging using Stochastic Approximation Expectation Maximization

problem Improving state-space radio interferometric imaging in the presence of heavy-tailed noise
method Stochastic Approximation Expectation Maximization
result Significant improvement in reconstruction fidelity and robustness to radio-frequency interference

State-space systems generate probabilistic dependencies between inputs and outputs.

problem Understanding probabilistic dependencies in state-space systems.
method Introducing a probabilistic framework and proving sufficient conditions for output existence and uniqueness.
result State-space systems can generate probabilistic dependencies, even without functional relations.

In this paper we investigate a link between state- space models and Gaussian Processes (GP) for time series modeling and forecasting. In particular, several widely used state- space models are transformed into continuous time form and corresponding Gaussian Process kernels are derived. Experimen- tal results demonstrat…

2016-10-25abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper presents a fast Bayesian filtering technique for state estimation.

problem Bottleneck in Bayesian inference for state estimation from noisy sensor data.
method Processor-native uncertainty tracking for uncertainty propagation and inference.
result Deterministic approximate filtering with up to 805x speedup and competitive accuracy.

The volume of the quantum mechanical state space over nn-dimensional real, complex and quaternionic Hilbert-spaces with respect to the canonical Euclidean measure is computed, and explicit formulas are presented for the expected value of the determinant in the general setting too. The case when the state space is endo…

2006-04-14abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper explores learning good policies from past data in large state spaces.

problem Learning good policies from historical data in large state spaces.
method Introduces expressivity assumptions and data coverage for function approximation and algorithmic design.
result A variety of algorithms and their guarantees are presented based on assumptions and desired complexity.

Study proves steady state space hypersurfaces are hyperplanes under certain curvature constraints.

problem Characterizing complete spacelike hypersurfaces in steady state space.
method Extended Omori-Yau's maximum principle.
result Proves complete spacelike hypersurfaces are hyperplanes under specific curvature conditions.

New model for insurance states using Markov jump processes with non-countable state space.

problem Modeling insurance states with non-countable state spaces.
method Developed a new Thiele's differential equation for continuous time rehabilitation rates.
result Allows for consistent calculation of reserves in disability insurance.

New IRL algorithm for continuous state spaces with formal guarantees.

problem Finding a reward function for expert behavior in continuous state spaces.
method Modeling the system using orthonormal functions and providing correctness proofs.
result Proof of correctness and formal guarantees on sample and time complexity.

Adversarial attacks on probabilistic state-space models affect latent state and policy decisions.

problem Robust reinforcement learning under adversarial observability.
method Analyzing adversarial attacks on linear probabilistic state-space models.
result Demonstrating the influence of adversarial observations on latent state and policy decisions.