A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Expands Hidden Markov Model to include Markov chain observations.
New MBL hidden Born machine learns various tasks.
Linear Dynamical System (LDS) is an elegant mathematical framework for modeling and learning multivariate time series. However, in general, it is difficult to set the dimension of its hidden state space. A small number of hidden states may not be able to model the complexities of a time series, while a large number of …
Direct approach for handling contextual bandits with latent state dynamics.
The partially observable hidden Markov model is an extension of the hidden Markov Model in which the hidden state is conditioned on an independent Markov chain. This structure is motivated by the presence of discrete metadata, such as an event type, that may partially reveal the hidden state but itself emanates from a …
Modified asymmetric hidden Markov models for time series with autoregressive components.
Learning nonlinear dynamics from diffusion data is a challenging problem since the individuals observed may be different at different time points, generally following an aggregate behaviour. Existing work cannot handle the tasks well since they model such dynamics either directly on observations or enforce the availabi…
DISTANA improves weather prediction by inferring hidden factors from temperature data.
Infinite Hidden Markov Models (iHMM's) are an attractive, nonparametric generalization of the classical Hidden Markov Model which can automatically infer the number of hidden states in the system. However, due to the infinite-dimensional nature of transition dynamics performing inference in the iHMM is difficult. In th…
Study evaluates initialization strategies for infinite hidden Markov models.
Detects anomalies in multiple processes using hidden Markov models.
Understanding urban dynamics, i.e., how the types and intensity of urban residents' activities in the city change along with time, is of urgent demand for building an efficient and livable city. Nonetheless, this is challenging due to the expanding urban population and the complicated spatial distribution of residents.…
A framework combining HSMM and survival analysis for lifecycle-oriented mobility analysis.
The study uses Bayesian Hidden Markov Models to predict cryptocurrency returns.
The paper optimizes portfolios in a market with hidden drift and random expert opinions.
This work proposes a novel neural network architecture, called the Dynamically Controlled Recurrent Neural Network (DCRNN), specifically designed to model dynamical systems that are governed by ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The current state vectors of these types of dynamical systems only depend on their sta…
To be effective in sequential data processing, Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) are required to keep track of past events by creating memories. While the relation between memories and the network's hidden state dynamics was established over the last decade, previous works in this direction were of a predominantly descr…
We study the computational tractability of PAC reinforcement learning with rich observations. We present new provably sample-efficient algorithms for environments with deterministic hidden state dynamics and stochastic rich observations. These methods operate in an oracle model of computation -- accessing policy and va…
New method shows hidden state can significantly improve differential privacy in SGD.
Paper presents a fast method for estimating hidden states in Bayesian models.
The identification of the governing equations of chaotic dynamical systems from data has recently emerged as a hot topic. While the seminal work by Brunton et al. reported proof-of-concepts for idealized observation setting for fully-observed systems, {\em i.e.} large signal-to-noise ratios and high-frequency sampling …
A new method learns state and proposal dynamics in state-space models using neural networks.
New method for analyzing brain dynamics using HMMs and graph models.
Functional brain networks exhibit dynamics on the sub-second temporal scale and are often assumed to embody the physiological substrate of cognitive processes. Here we analyse the temporal and spatial dynamics of these states, as measured by EEG, with a hidden Markov model and compare this approach to classical EEG mic…
Researchers analyze how RNNs solve intent detection tasks using dynamical systems theory.
ROAD-EnKFs use learned low-dimensional models to improve state reconstruction and forecasting.
We propose dynamical systems trees (DSTs) as a flexible class of models for describing multiple processes that interact via a hierarchy of aggregating parent chains. DSTs extend Kalman filters, hidden Markov models and nonlinear dynamical systems to an interactive group scenario. Various individual processes interact a…
There is broad interest in creating RL agents that can solve many (related) tasks and adapt to new tasks and environments after initial training. Model-based RL leverages learned surrogate models that describe dynamics and rewards of individual tasks, such that planning in a good surrogate can lead to good control of t…
New algorithm for collective Gaussian hidden Markov models inference.
Recurrent networks learn beliefs from history in partially observable environments.
Dynamical-VAE learns causal dynamics from POMDPs using future information.
Efficiently extracts linear dynamics from complex observations.
A new method uses active learning to monitor industrial processes more accurately.
The objective of this paper is to investigate how noisy and incomplete observations can be integrated in the process of building a reduced-order model. This problematic arises in many scientific domains where there exists a need for accurate low-order descriptions of highly-complex phenomena, which can not be directly …
Symmetry-regularized Neural ODEs improve model stability and interpretability.
Hidden Markov Neural Networks balance adaptation and forgetting in time-series data.
Uniform scaling limits in AdamW-trained transformers converge to ODEs.
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are one of the most widely used statistical methods for analyzing sequence data. However, the reporting of output from HMMs has largely been restricted to the presentation of the most-probable (MAP) hidden state sequence, found via the Viterbi algorithm, or the sequence of most probable marg…
Learning the parameters of a (potentially partially observable) random field model is intractable in general. Instead of focussing on a single optimal parameter value we propose to treat parameters as dynamical quantities. We introduce an algorithm to generate complex dynamics for parameters and (both visible and hidde…
New modifiers improve noisy RNN replay in hippocampal networks.
Hybrid model improves traffic flow prediction accuracy.
We introduce a new formulation of the Hidden Parameter Markov Decision Process (HiP-MDP), a framework for modeling families of related tasks using low-dimensional latent embeddings. Our new framework correctly models the joint uncertainty in the latent parameters and the state space. We also replace the original Gaussi…
Many real-valued stochastic time-series are locally linear (Gassian), but globally non-linear. For example, the trajectory of a human hand gesture can be viewed as a linear dynamic system driven by a nonlinear dynamic system that represents muscle actions. We present a mixed-state dynamic graphical model in which a hid…
The excited states of polyatomic systems are rather complex, and often exhibit meta-stable dynamical behaviors. Static analysis of reaction pathway often fails to sufficiently characterize excited state motions due to their highly non-equilibrium nature. Here, we proposed a time series guided clustering algorithm to ge…
Unified statistical framework for LSTM model selection.
New method uncovers small but significant local activities in time-series data.
New method models unknown systems with hidden parameters using neural networks.
Although deep neural networks generally have fixed network structures, the concept of dynamic mechanism has drawn more and more attention in recent years. Attention mechanisms compute input-dependent dynamic attention weights for aggregating a sequence of hidden states. Dynamic network configuration in convolutional ne…