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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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145291436581 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for hidden experiences

This is a technical report which explores the estimation methodologies on hyper-parameters in Markov Random Field and Gaussian Hidden Markov Random Field. In first section, we briefly investigate a theoretical framework on Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Next, by using MH algorithm, we simulate the data from Ising model…

2017-11-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Hidden Markov Neural Networks balance adaptation and forgetting in time-series data.

problem Balancing adaptation to new data and forgetting outdated information in time-series forecasting.
method Modeling weights as hidden states of a Hidden Markov model, using a filtering algorithm for learning a variational approximation of the posterior distribution over weights, and employing sequential Bayes by Backprop with variational DropConnect for regularization.
result Achieves strong predictive performance and effective uncertainty quantification on various tasks.

Paper tackles causal effect estimation in observational data with hidden variables.

problem Estimating causal effects in observational data with hidden confounders.
method Developed a theorem for local search to find superset of adjustment variables, proposing a data-driven algorithm.
result Proposed algorithm produces more accurate causal effect estimates than existing methods.

Modified asymmetric hidden Markov models for time series with autoregressive components.

problem Dynamic relationships between variables in time series data.
method Introducing an asymmetric autoregressive component to recent asymmetric hidden Markov models.
result The model can choose the optimal autoregressive order for better likelihood.

New algorithm for collective Gaussian hidden Markov models inference.

problem Inference of collective Gaussian hidden Markov models from aggregate data.
method Collective Gaussian forward-backward algorithm, extending Sinkhorn belief propagation.
result Convergence guarantee and applicability to single individual Kalman filter.

Chemical networks outperform spiking neural networks in classification tasks.

problem Learning tasks with spiking neural networks require hidden layers, which are computationally expensive.
method Used deterministic mass-action kinetics to prove chemical reaction networks without hidden layers can solve tasks previously solved by spiking neural networks.
result A chemical reaction network without hidden layers outperforms a spiking neural network with hidden layers in a handwritten digit classification task.

Estimates effects of multiple interventions with hidden confounders using single-variable interventions.

problem Estimating effects of multiple interventions in the presence of hidden confounders.
method Identifiability under nonlinear structural causal model with additive Gaussian noise; pooling and joint likelihood maximization.
result Proven identifiability and superior performance compared to baseline.

Stochastic variational inference for collapsed models has recently been successfully applied to large scale topic modelling. In this paper, we propose a stochastic collapsed variational inference algorithm for hidden Markov models, in a sequential data setting. Given a collapsed hidden Markov Model, we break its long M…

2015-12-05abs ↗pdf ↗

Study explores reinforcement learning in a complex game environment, analyzing rule inference and policy learning.

problem Learning optimal policies in environments with hidden rules.
method Investigated using the Game Of Hidden Rules (GOHR) environment, employing Feature-Centric and Object-Centric state representations with a Transformer-based A2C algorithm.
result Transformer-based A2C models outperform traditional methods in GOHR, demonstrating the effectiveness of representation strategies.

LIFE framework improves model accuracy and interpretability.

problem Achieving high prediction accuracy and interpretability in neural networks.
method Three-step process: subset definition, feature creation, and linear model combination.
result LIFE consistently outperforms other models in prediction accuracy and interpretability.

Multi-view data are becoming common in real-world modeling tasks and many multi-view data clustering algorithms have thus been proposed. The existing algorithms usually focus on the cooperation of different views in the original space but neglect the influence of the hidden information among these different visible vie…

2019-08-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Caus-Modens uses deep ensembles to better predict causal outcomes in hidden confounding scenarios.

problem Predicting causal outcomes in the presence of hidden confounders.
method Caus-Modens employs a modulated ensemble approach to improve prediction intervals for causal outcomes using sensitivity models.
result Caus-Modens provides tighter prediction intervals for causal outcomes compared to existing methods.

FEALM learns features for better nonlinear DR of hidden patterns.

problem DR misses important patterns on distorted manifolds.
method FEALM generates optimized projections using an optimization algorithm and neighbor-shape dissimilarity.
result FEALM captures important patterns on hidden manifolds.

Learning nonlinear dynamics from diffusion data is a challenging problem since the individuals observed may be different at different time points, generally following an aggregate behaviour. Existing work cannot handle the tasks well since they model such dynamics either directly on observations or enforce the availabi…

2018-07-22abs ↗pdf ↗

We study the problem of learning one-hidden-layer neural networks with Rectified Linear Unit (ReLU) activation function, where the inputs are sampled from standard Gaussian distribution and the outputs are generated from a noisy teacher network. We analyze the performance of gradient descent for training such kind of n…

2018-06-20abs ↗pdf ↗

As a new neural machine translation approach, Non-Autoregressive machine Translation (NAT) has attracted attention recently due to its high efficiency in inference. However, the high efficiency has come at the cost of not capturing the sequential dependency on the target side of translation, which causes NAT to suffer …

2019-02-22abs ↗pdf ↗

New method reduces overfitting in deep neural networks by measuring and regulating hidden unit diversity.

problem Overfitting in deep neural networks.
method Introduces a new redundancy measure based on mutual information to improve generalization.
result Reduction of redundancy improves generalization capacity, reducing overfitting.

Estimates dependent parameters using Markovian dependence with shrinkage.

problem Estimating dependent parameters from a hidden Markov model.
method Developed a novel non-parametric shrinkage algorithm combining Tweedie-based ideas and efficient state estimation.
result Superior performance compared to non-shrinkage methods in hidden Markov models.

New algorithm for aggregate inference in HMMs with continuous observations.

problem Inference in large populations with indistinguishable individuals and continuous measurements.
method Continuous observation collective forward-backward algorithm extending existing discrete case algorithm.
result Efficacy demonstrated through numerical experiments.

Stochastic variational inference for collapsed models has recently been successfully applied to large scale topic modelling. In this paper, we propose a stochastic collapsed variational inference algorithm in the sequential data setting. Our algorithm is applicable to both finite hidden Markov models and hierarchical D…

2015-12-05abs ↗pdf ↗

We introduce a new paradigm that is important for community detection in the realm of network analysis. Networks contain a set of strong, dominant communities, which interfere with the detection of weak, natural community structure. When most of the members of the weak communities also belong to stronger communities, t…

2017-02-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Observational data is increasingly used as a means for making individual-level causal predictions and intervention recommendations. The foremost challenge of causal inference from observational data is hidden confounding, whose presence cannot be tested in data and can invalidate any causal conclusion. Experimental dat…

2018-10-27abs ↗pdf ↗

The infinite restricted Boltzmann machine (iRBM) is an extension of the classic RBM. It enjoys a good property of automatically deciding the size of the hidden layer according to specific training data. With sufficient training, the iRBM can achieve a competitive performance with that of the classic RBM. However, the c…

2017-09-11abs ↗pdf ↗

The study analyzes local minima in ReLU networks and finds low probability of bad local minima.

problem Understanding the existence and probability of local minima in ReLU networks.
method Theoretical analysis combined with linear programming and experiments on MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets.
result No bad differentiable local minima found almost everywhere in weight space.

Polynomial delay algorithm tests causal models with hidden variables.

problem Testing causal models with hidden variables in polynomial delay.
method c-component local Markov property (C-LMP) and polynomial delay algorithm.
result First algorithm for poly-delay testing of CIs in causal graphs with hidden variables.

FactorGCL uses hypergraph learning to predict stock returns by mining hidden factors.

problem Mining effective factors in data-driven models is challenging due to low signal-to-noise ratio in market data.
method FactorGCL employs a hypergraph structure and temporal residual contrastive learning to extract hidden factors.
result FactorGCL outperforms existing methods and mines effective hidden factors for predicting stock returns.

UNMIX identifies hidden buyers in darknet markets by clustering anonymized IDs.

problem Identifying hidden buyers in darknet markets where IDs are anonymized.
method UNMIX, a hidden buyer identification model using Dirichlet Hawkes Process.
result UNMIX successfully groups transactions from one hidden buyer into one cluster.

Two case studies reveal hidden biases and confounders in machine learning models of biomedical data.

problem Hidden biases and confounders in machine learning models of biomedical data.
method Two case studies examining biases and confounders in machine learning models of biomedical data.
result Prediction models performed well but hidden biases and confounders were revealed.